Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS for ERR, 9–20 August 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 35.1% 33.2–37.1% 32.7–37.6% 32.2–38.1% 31.3–39.1%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 22.7% 21.1–24.5% 20.6–25.0% 20.2–25.4% 19.4–26.3%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 16.5% 15.1–18.1% 14.7–18.5% 14.3–18.9% 13.7–19.7%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.2% 7.2–9.4% 6.9–9.8% 6.6–10.1% 6.2–10.7%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
Eesti 200 4.4% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.8% 3.6–7.3%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 1.9–4.8%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 39 39 39–41 39–41 39–46
Eesti Keskerakond 26 26 26 26–27 26–27 24–27
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 17 17 17 17 17–18
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 8 8–10 8–10 7–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 7 7 6–7 6–7 6–8
Eesti 200 0 4 4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 90% 100% Median
40 0% 10%  
41 9% 10%  
42 0% 0.8%  
43 0% 0.8%  
44 0% 0.8%  
45 0.3% 0.8%  
46 0.5% 0.5%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.3% 100%  
21 0% 99.7%  
22 0% 99.7%  
23 0% 99.7%  
24 0.2% 99.7%  
25 1.4% 99.5%  
26 89% 98% Last Result, Median
27 9% 9%  
28 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 0% 99.7%  
17 98% 99.7% Median
18 1.1% 1.4%  
19 0% 0.3% Last Result
20 0.3% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.3% 100%  
7 1.4% 99.7%  
8 89% 98% Median
9 0.3% 9%  
10 9% 9% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 9% 100%  
7 91% 91% Median
8 0.6% 0.6%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100% Last Result
1 0% 90%  
2 0% 90%  
3 0% 90%  
4 89% 90% Median
5 1.2% 1.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 82 100% 82 82–85 82–85 82–86
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 65 100% 65 65–68 65–68 64–70
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 63 100% 63–64 63–64 63–64 63–69
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 56 100% 56–57 56–58 56–58 56–63
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 54 100% 54 54–57 54–57 53–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 54 100% 54 54–57 54–57 53–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 47 10% 47 47–51 47–51 46–53
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 50 0% 50 50 50 48–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 46 0.8% 46 46–47 46–47 46–54
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 43 0% 43 43–44 43–44 40–44
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 41 0% 41 41–43 41–43 38–43
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 34 0% 34 34–37 34–37 30–37
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 25 0% 25 25–27 25–27 23–27

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100% Last Result
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 90% 99.9% Median
83 0% 10%  
84 0% 10%  
85 9% 10%  
86 0.3% 0.6%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100% Last Result
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 1.1% 100%  
65 89% 98.8% Median
66 0% 9%  
67 0% 9%  
68 9% 9%  
69 0% 0.6%  
70 0.3% 0.6%  
71 0.3% 0.3%  
72 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 89% 100% Median
64 10% 11%  
65 0% 0.9% Last Result
66 0% 0.8%  
67 0% 0.8%  
68 0% 0.8%  
69 0.3% 0.8%  
70 0% 0.5%  
71 0.2% 0.5%  
72 0.3% 0.3%  
73 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 89% 100% Median
57 1.1% 11%  
58 9% 10%  
59 0% 0.8%  
60 0% 0.8%  
61 0.3% 0.8%  
62 0% 0.5%  
63 0.2% 0.5%  
64 0% 0.3%  
65 0.3% 0.3%  
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 1.1% 100%  
54 89% 98.9% Median
55 0% 10%  
56 0% 10% Last Result
57 9% 10%  
58 0% 0.8%  
59 0% 0.8%  
60 0.2% 0.8%  
61 0.5% 0.6%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 1.1% 100%  
54 89% 98.9% Median
55 0% 10%  
56 0% 10% Last Result
57 9% 10%  
58 0% 0.8%  
59 0% 0.8%  
60 0.2% 0.8%  
61 0.5% 0.6%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100% Last Result
45 0% 100%  
46 1.1% 100%  
47 89% 98.9% Median
48 0% 10%  
49 0% 10%  
50 0% 10%  
51 9% 10% Majority
52 0.2% 0.8%  
53 0.3% 0.6%  
54 0.3% 0.3%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.3% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.7%  
49 0.2% 99.4%  
50 99.1% 99.2% Median
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 90% 100% Last Result, Median
47 9% 10%  
48 0% 0.9%  
49 0% 0.8%  
50 0% 0.8%  
51 0% 0.8% Majority
52 0.3% 0.8%  
53 0% 0.5%  
54 0.5% 0.5%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.5% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.4%  
42 0% 99.2%  
43 90% 99.2% Median
44 9% 9%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.3% 100%  
37 0% 99.7%  
38 0.2% 99.7%  
39 1.1% 99.5%  
40 0.3% 98%  
41 89% 98% Median
42 0% 9%  
43 9% 9%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.3% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.7%  
31 0% 99.5%  
32 1.4% 99.5%  
33 0% 98%  
34 89% 98% Median
35 0% 9%  
36 0% 9% Last Result
37 9% 9%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.3% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.7%  
24 0% 99.5%  
25 90% 99.5% Median
26 0% 9%  
27 9% 9%  
28 0% 0.3%  
29 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
30 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations