Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 15–21 August 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 36.4% 34.6–38.3% 34.1–38.8% 33.7–39.2% 32.9–40.1%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 17.4% 16.0–18.9% 15.7–19.3% 15.3–19.7% 14.7–20.4%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 15.8% 14.5–17.3% 14.2–17.7% 13.9–18.1% 13.3–18.8%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 12.8% 11.6–14.2% 11.3–14.6% 11.0–14.9% 10.5–15.5%
Eesti 200 4.4% 6.8% 5.9–7.8% 5.7–8.1% 5.5–8.4% 5.1–8.9%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 4.7% 4.0–5.6% 3.8–5.9% 3.7–6.1% 3.3–6.6%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 4.0% 3.3–4.8% 3.1–5.0% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.7%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.9% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 42 41–42 41–46 41–46 38–46
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 19 18–21 17–21 17–21 17–21
Eesti Keskerakond 26 16 16–17 16–17 16–17 15–21
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 13 12–13 12–13 12–13 12–16
Eesti 200 0 6 5–7 5–9 5–9 5–9
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 4–6 0–6 0–6 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0–6
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0.8% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.2%  
40 0.2% 99.1%  
41 19% 98.9%  
42 71% 79% Median
43 1.0% 8%  
44 1.0% 7%  
45 0% 6%  
46 6% 6%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 6% 99.9%  
18 42% 94%  
19 31% 52% Last Result, Median
20 1.0% 21%  
21 20% 20%  
22 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100%  
15 1.2% 99.9%  
16 77% 98.8% Median
17 19% 21%  
18 1.0% 2%  
19 0% 0.8%  
20 0% 0.8%  
21 0.8% 0.8%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 32% 100%  
13 66% 68% Median
14 0.7% 2%  
15 0.7% 1.3%  
16 0.3% 0.6%  
17 0.2% 0.3%  
18 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 19% 100%  
6 60% 81% Median
7 14% 21%  
8 0.4% 6%  
9 6% 6%  
10 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 0% 91%  
2 0% 91%  
3 0% 91%  
4 19% 91%  
5 12% 72%  
6 60% 60% Median
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.8%  
2 0% 0.8%  
3 0% 0.8%  
4 0% 0.8%  
5 0.1% 0.8%  
6 0.7% 0.7%  
7 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 77 100% 76–79 76–79 76–80 74–82
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 66 100% 64–67 63–67 63–67 59–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 61 100% 60–62 60–63 60–63 59–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 58 100% 58 58–62 58–62 56–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 61 100% 57–61 57–61 56–61 52–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 61 100% 57–61 57–61 56–61 52–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 55 99.9% 53–55 53–59 53–59 52–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 48 0% 45–48 45–48 43–48 38–48
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 40 0% 40–42 33–42 33–42 33–42
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 35 0% 34–38 33–38 33–38 33–42
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 35 0% 33–35 29–35 29–35 29–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 31 0% 31–33 30–33 30–33 30–35
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 29 0% 28–29 28–29 28–30 28–35

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0% 99.8%  
74 1.0% 99.8%  
75 0.3% 98.8%  
76 41% 98.5%  
77 30% 58% Median
78 0% 27%  
79 24% 27% Last Result
80 0.7% 3%  
81 1.0% 2%  
82 1.0% 1.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 1.5% 100%  
60 0% 98.5%  
61 0% 98.5%  
62 0% 98.5%  
63 6% 98%  
64 2% 92%  
65 0% 90% Last Result
66 71% 90%  
67 18% 19% Median
68 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0% 99.8%  
58 0% 99.8%  
59 2% 99.7%  
60 41% 98%  
61 30% 57% Median
62 18% 26%  
63 6% 8%  
64 2% 2%  
65 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 1.2% 99.8%  
57 0% 98.6%  
58 90% 98.6% Median
59 0.9% 9%  
60 0% 8% Last Result
61 2% 8%  
62 6% 6%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.7% 100%  
53 0% 99.2%  
54 0% 99.2%  
55 1.1% 99.2%  
56 1.1% 98% Last Result
57 19% 97%  
58 0% 78%  
59 18% 78%  
60 0% 60%  
61 60% 60% Median
62 0.4% 0.4%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.7% 100%  
53 0% 99.2%  
54 0% 99.2%  
55 1.1% 99.2%  
56 1.1% 98% Last Result
57 19% 97%  
58 0% 78%  
59 18% 78%  
60 0% 60%  
61 60% 60% Median
62 0.4% 0.4%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100% Last Result
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0% 99.9% Majority
52 0.9% 99.9%  
53 18% 99.0%  
54 12% 81%  
55 60% 69% Median
56 1.1% 8%  
57 1.1% 7%  
58 0.1% 6%  
59 6% 6%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.7% 100%  
39 0% 99.3%  
40 0% 99.3%  
41 0.7% 99.3%  
42 0% 98.6%  
43 1.1% 98.5%  
44 1.2% 97%  
45 18% 96%  
46 6% 78% Last Result
47 12% 72%  
48 59% 60% Median
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 7% 100%  
34 0% 93%  
35 0% 93%  
36 0% 93%  
37 1.0% 93%  
38 0.4% 92%  
39 1.3% 92%  
40 53% 91%  
41 19% 38% Median
42 19% 19%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 7% 99.8%  
34 41% 93%  
35 31% 52% Median
36 0% 21%  
37 1.1% 21%  
38 18% 20%  
39 1.0% 2%  
40 0% 0.8%  
41 0% 0.8%  
42 0.7% 0.7%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 6% 99.9%  
30 2% 94%  
31 0% 91%  
32 0% 91%  
33 30% 91%  
34 0% 61%  
35 60% 61% Median
36 0.4% 0.7%  
37 0.2% 0.3%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0% 99.9% Last Result
30 6% 99.9%  
31 53% 94%  
32 19% 41% Median
33 21% 22%  
34 0.4% 1.4%  
35 0.7% 1.0%  
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 12% 100%  
29 84% 88% Median
30 2% 4%  
31 0.4% 1.5%  
32 0% 1.1%  
33 0.3% 1.1%  
34 0% 0.7%  
35 0.7% 0.7%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations