Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 21–26 August 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 34.3% 32.4–36.3% 31.9–36.8% 31.4–37.3% 30.5–38.3%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 23.7% 22.0–25.5% 21.6–26.0% 21.2–26.4% 20.4–27.3%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 15.2% 13.8–16.8% 13.4–17.2% 13.1–17.6% 12.5–18.3%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.2% 5.3–7.3% 5.1–7.6% 4.9–7.9% 4.5–8.4%
Eesti 200 4.4% 4.5% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.7% 3.4–6.0% 3.0–6.5%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.6% 2.1–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.6–4.2%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 43 43 42–43 38–43 36–43
Eesti Keskerakond 26 27 27 27–30 27–31 27–31
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 16 16 16 16 12–16
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 9 9 9–10 8–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 6 6 6 5–7
Eesti 200 0 0 0 0 0 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0.6% 100%  
37 0% 99.4%  
38 3% 99.4%  
39 0% 96%  
40 0% 96%  
41 0% 96%  
42 1.0% 96%  
43 95% 95% Median
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 99.9% Last Result
27 94% 99.9% Median
28 0.4% 5%  
29 0% 5%  
30 1.3% 5%  
31 4% 4%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.7% 100%  
13 0% 99.3%  
14 0% 99.3%  
15 0.5% 99.2%  
16 98.5% 98.7% Median
17 0.1% 0.2%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 1.2% 99.9%  
9 95% 98.7% Median
10 4% 4% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 0% 99.6%  
2 0% 99.6%  
3 0% 99.6%  
4 0% 99.6%  
5 0.9% 99.6%  
6 98% 98.7% Median
7 0.7% 0.7%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.8%  
2 0% 0.8%  
3 0% 0.8%  
4 0% 0.8%  
5 0% 0.8%  
6 0.8% 0.8%  
7 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 86 100% 86 86 85–86 82–87
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 70 100% 70 70 69–70 66–72
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 65 100% 65 61–65 60–65 57–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 59 100% 59 57–59 54–59 52–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 58 99.5% 58 58 54–58 51–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 58 99.5% 58 58 54–58 51–59
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 49 4% 49 49 49–53 48–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 52 95% 52 52 48–52 45–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 49 0% 49 49 44–49 42–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 43 0% 43 43 43–47 42–47
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 42 0% 42 42–43 42–47 41–47
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 36 0% 36 36–38 36–41 36–41
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 25 0% 25 25 25–26 22–26

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100% Last Result
80 0% 100%  
81 0.2% 100%  
82 0.4% 99.8%  
83 0% 99.4%  
84 0.7% 99.3%  
85 3% 98.6%  
86 94% 95% Median
87 0.4% 0.8%  
88 0.4% 0.4%  
89 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100% Last Result
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0.6% 99.9%  
67 0% 99.4%  
68 0% 99.3%  
69 3% 99.3%  
70 94% 96% Median
71 0.4% 1.5%  
72 0.7% 1.1%  
73 0.3% 0.4%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.6% 100%  
58 0% 99.4%  
59 0.4% 99.4%  
60 3% 99.0%  
61 0.8% 96%  
62 0.3% 95%  
63 0% 94%  
64 0% 94%  
65 94% 94% Last Result, Median
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100% Majority
52 0.4% 99.8%  
53 0% 99.4% Last Result
54 4% 99.4%  
55 0% 95%  
56 0.1% 95%  
57 0.3% 95%  
58 0% 95%  
59 95% 95% Median
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.4% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.6%  
51 0.5% 99.5% Majority
52 0% 99.0%  
53 0% 99.0%  
54 3% 98.9%  
55 0.3% 95%  
56 0% 95% Last Result
57 0% 95%  
58 94% 95% Median
59 0.7% 0.8%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.4% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.6%  
51 0.5% 99.5% Majority
52 0% 99.0%  
53 0% 99.0%  
54 3% 98.9%  
55 0.3% 95%  
56 0% 95% Last Result
57 0% 95%  
58 94% 95% Median
59 0.7% 0.8%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.4% 100%  
45 0% 99.6%  
46 0% 99.5%  
47 0% 99.5%  
48 0% 99.5%  
49 95% 99.5% Median
50 0% 4%  
51 0.9% 4% Majority
52 0% 4%  
53 3% 3%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.4% 100% Last Result
45 0.2% 99.6%  
46 0.1% 99.4%  
47 0% 99.4%  
48 3% 99.3%  
49 0% 96%  
50 0.4% 96%  
51 0.3% 95% Majority
52 95% 95% Median
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.4% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.6%  
43 0.4% 99.4%  
44 3% 99.0%  
45 0% 96%  
46 0% 96% Last Result
47 0.3% 95%  
48 0% 95%  
49 95% 95% Median
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 99.9%  
41 0% 99.9%  
42 0.7% 99.9%  
43 94% 99.2% Median
44 0.3% 5%  
45 0.2% 4% Last Result
46 0.7% 4%  
47 3% 4%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.6%  
38 0% 99.6%  
39 0% 99.6%  
40 0% 99.5%  
41 0.1% 99.5%  
42 94% 99.5% Median
43 0.4% 5%  
44 0.3% 5%  
45 0.2% 4%  
46 0% 4%  
47 4% 4%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 95% 99.9% Last Result, Median
37 0% 5%  
38 0.4% 5%  
39 0.5% 5%  
40 0.8% 4%  
41 3% 3%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.7% 100%  
23 0.4% 99.2%  
24 0.9% 98.9%  
25 94% 98% Median
26 4% 4%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations