Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 27 August–2 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 35.9% 34.0–37.9% 33.4–38.4% 33.0–38.9% 32.1–39.9%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 24.6% 22.9–26.4% 22.4–26.9% 22.0–27.4% 21.2–28.3%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 14.8% 13.4–16.3% 13.1–16.8% 12.7–17.1% 12.1–17.9%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.3% 8.2–10.6% 7.9–10.9% 7.7–11.3% 7.2–11.9%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.8%
Eesti 200 4.4% 4.8% 4.0–5.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.6–6.3% 3.3–6.8%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.3% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.8–2.2% 0.6–2.5%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 42 41–43 41–44 41–44 41–44
Eesti Keskerakond 26 26 25–26 25–27 25–27 25–27
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 15 13–15 13–15 13–15 13–15
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 11 10–11 8–11 8–11 8–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 7 7 6–9 6–9 6–9
Eesti 200 0 0 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–5
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0.2% 100%  
41 29% 99.8%  
42 58% 71% Median
43 5% 12%  
44 7% 7%  
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.8%  
24 0% 99.8%  
25 36% 99.8%  
26 58% 64% Last Result, Median
27 5% 6%  
28 0% 0.2%  
29 0% 0.2%  
30 0.1% 0.2%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 29% 99.9%  
14 0.1% 71%  
15 71% 71% Median
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 7% 99.9%  
9 0% 93%  
10 34% 92% Last Result
11 58% 58% Median
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 5% 99.8%  
7 87% 94% Median
8 0% 7%  
9 7% 7%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 71% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 29%  
2 0% 29%  
3 0% 29%  
4 0% 29%  
5 29% 29%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 83 100% 79–84 79–85 79–85 79–85
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 68 100% 66–69 66–70 66–70 66–70
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 64 100% 61–64 61–68 61–68 61–68
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 60 99.9% 58–60 58–61 58–61 58–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 60 99.9% 58–60 58–61 58–61 58–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 57 100% 54–58 54–59 54–59 54–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 53 99.8% 51–53 51–53 51–53 51–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 49 7% 48–49 48–53 48–53 48–53
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 48 0.1% 45–48 45–49 45–49 45–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 44 0% 42–44 42–44 42–44 42–44
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 41 0% 38–41 38–42 38–42 38–42
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 37 0% 35–37 33–37 33–37 33–37
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 26 0% 23–26 23–26 23–26 23–26

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 29% 100% Last Result
80 0.1% 71%  
81 0.1% 71%  
82 0.1% 71%  
83 58% 71% Median
84 7% 12%  
85 5% 5%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100% Last Result
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0% 99.8%  
66 29% 99.8%  
67 0% 71%  
68 58% 71% Median
69 7% 13%  
70 5% 5%  
71 0% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.8%  
60 0% 99.8%  
61 29% 99.8%  
62 0.1% 71%  
63 0% 71%  
64 63% 71% Median
65 0% 7% Last Result
66 0.1% 7%  
67 0% 7%  
68 7% 7%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 99.9% Majority
52 0% 99.9%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.8%  
56 0% 99.8% Last Result
57 0.1% 99.8%  
58 29% 99.7%  
59 5% 71%  
60 58% 65% Median
61 7% 7%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 99.9% Majority
52 0% 99.9%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.8%  
56 0% 99.8% Last Result
57 0.1% 99.8%  
58 29% 99.7%  
59 5% 71%  
60 58% 65% Median
61 7% 7%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100% Majority
52 0% 99.9%  
53 0% 99.9% Last Result
54 29% 99.8%  
55 0.1% 71%  
56 0.1% 71%  
57 58% 71% Median
58 5% 12%  
59 7% 7%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100% Last Result
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0% 99.9%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0% 99.8%  
51 29% 99.8% Majority
52 7% 71%  
53 63% 63% Median
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 99.9%  
44 0% 99.9%  
45 0% 99.9%  
46 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
47 0.1% 99.7%  
48 29% 99.6%  
49 63% 71% Median
50 0.1% 7%  
51 0% 7% Majority
52 0% 7%  
53 7% 7%  
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 29% 99.8%  
46 0% 71%  
47 0.1% 71%  
48 63% 71% Median
49 7% 7%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0% 99.8%  
40 0% 99.8%  
41 0.1% 99.8%  
42 36% 99.7%  
43 5% 64%  
44 58% 58% Median
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0.2%  
47 0% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1% Last Result
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 29% 99.9%  
39 0% 71%  
40 7% 71%  
41 58% 64% Median
42 5% 5%  
43 0% 0.2%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0.1% Last Result
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 7% 99.9%  
34 0% 93%  
35 29% 93%  
36 0% 64% Last Result
37 63% 64% Median
38 0% 0.3%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 99.9%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 36% 99.8%  
24 0.2% 64%  
25 5% 63%  
26 58% 58% Median
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations