Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 3–9 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 33.9% 32.0–35.9% 31.5–36.4% 31.0–36.9% 30.1–37.8%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 23.7% 22.0–25.5% 21.6–26.0% 21.2–26.4% 20.4–27.3%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 15.1% 13.7–16.6% 13.3–17.1% 13.0–17.5% 12.4–18.2%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.1% 8.0–10.4% 7.7–10.7% 7.5–11.1% 7.0–11.7%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.8% 6.8–9.0% 6.5–9.3% 6.3–9.6% 5.9–10.2%
Eesti 200 4.4% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.6% 2.1–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.6–4.2%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 39 37–42 37–44 35–45 34–45
Eesti Keskerakond 26 27 24–28 24–29 23–30 22–31
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 16 14–17 14–18 13–19 13–20
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 7–10 7–11 7–11 6–12
Erakond Isamaa 12 7 6–9 6–9 6–10 5–10
Eesti 200 0 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.4% 99.8% Last Result
35 2% 99.4%  
36 1.3% 97%  
37 21% 96%  
38 11% 75%  
39 16% 64% Median
40 10% 48%  
41 24% 38%  
42 7% 15%  
43 3% 8%  
44 2% 5%  
45 3% 3%  
46 0.3% 0.4%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.6% 99.9%  
23 3% 99.3%  
24 8% 97%  
25 14% 89%  
26 23% 75% Last Result
27 18% 52% Median
28 28% 34%  
29 3% 7%  
30 3% 4%  
31 0.5% 0.7%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 2% 99.7%  
14 14% 97%  
15 20% 83%  
16 34% 63% Median
17 22% 29%  
18 4% 8%  
19 3% 4% Last Result
20 0.5% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 2% 100%  
7 9% 98%  
8 19% 89%  
9 37% 70% Median
10 25% 33% Last Result
11 6% 8%  
12 1.3% 1.5%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 12% 98%  
7 48% 86% Median
8 26% 38%  
9 9% 12%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 43% 100% Last Result
1 0% 57%  
2 0% 57%  
3 0% 57%  
4 20% 57% Median
5 30% 37%  
6 7% 7%  
7 0.5% 0.5%  
8 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 81 100% 78–85 78–86 78–87 77–88
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 66 100% 63–69 63–70 62–71 60–72
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 63 100% 60–66 59–67 59–67 58–69
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 56 99.4% 53–58 53–60 52–60 50–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 56 99.4% 53–58 53–60 52–60 50–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 55 99.1% 52–59 52–60 51–60 50–61
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 50 42% 47–53 46–54 45–54 44–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 48 16% 46–51 45–52 44–54 43–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 47 6% 44–49 44–51 44–51 42–53
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 43 0% 40–45 40–46 39–47 38–48
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 43 0% 39–44 39–46 38–47 38–48
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 36 0% 33–37 33–38 32–39 31–40
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 25 0% 23–27 22–27 21–28 20–30

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.2% 100%  
76 0.3% 99.8%  
77 2% 99.6%  
78 12% 98%  
79 9% 86% Last Result
80 18% 77%  
81 9% 59%  
82 7% 50% Median
83 6% 43%  
84 9% 37%  
85 20% 28%  
86 4% 8%  
87 3% 4%  
88 0.8% 0.8%  
89 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.2% 100%  
60 0.4% 99.8% Last Result
61 1.4% 99.3%  
62 2% 98%  
63 18% 96%  
64 13% 78%  
65 14% 65%  
66 4% 51% Median
67 14% 47%  
68 6% 33%  
69 19% 27%  
70 4% 8%  
71 2% 4%  
72 2% 2%  
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.9%  
58 2% 99.6%  
59 3% 98%  
60 13% 95%  
61 22% 82%  
62 10% 60% Median
63 9% 51%  
64 21% 41%  
65 6% 20% Last Result
66 8% 14%  
67 3% 6%  
68 2% 2%  
69 0.6% 0.7%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.5% 99.9%  
51 1.1% 99.4% Majority
52 2% 98%  
53 12% 96%  
54 16% 84%  
55 13% 68% Median
56 6% 55% Last Result
57 34% 49%  
58 6% 16%  
59 4% 9%  
60 4% 6%  
61 1.4% 2%  
62 0.5% 0.6%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.5% 99.9%  
51 1.1% 99.4% Majority
52 2% 98%  
53 12% 96%  
54 16% 84%  
55 13% 68% Median
56 6% 55% Last Result
57 34% 49%  
58 6% 16%  
59 4% 9%  
60 4% 6%  
61 1.4% 2%  
62 0.5% 0.6%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 0.5% 99.6%  
51 3% 99.1% Majority
52 7% 97%  
53 15% 89% Last Result
54 18% 74%  
55 8% 56% Median
56 9% 48%  
57 23% 39%  
58 5% 15%  
59 5% 10%  
60 3% 5%  
61 2% 2%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.9% 99.9%  
45 2% 99.0%  
46 2% 97%  
47 13% 94%  
48 10% 81%  
49 12% 71%  
50 16% 59% Median
51 26% 42% Majority
52 5% 16%  
53 5% 11%  
54 3% 5%  
55 1.1% 2%  
56 0.6% 0.8%  
57 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.2% 100%  
43 0.6% 99.8%  
44 2% 99.2% Last Result
45 6% 97%  
46 8% 90%  
47 21% 82%  
48 12% 62% Median
49 14% 50%  
50 19% 35%  
51 7% 16% Majority
52 5% 9%  
53 1.2% 4%  
54 3% 3%  
55 0.2% 0.3%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 0.8% 99.6%  
43 1.2% 98.8%  
44 18% 98%  
45 11% 79%  
46 9% 68% Last Result, Median
47 15% 59%  
48 26% 44%  
49 9% 19%  
50 4% 10%  
51 3% 6% Majority
52 1.0% 2%  
53 1.2% 1.4%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.9% 99.8%  
39 2% 98.9%  
40 8% 97%  
41 10% 89%  
42 12% 79%  
43 24% 67% Median
44 32% 43%  
45 5% 11%  
46 2% 5%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.4% 0.8% Last Result
49 0.3% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.9%  
38 2% 99.6%  
39 12% 97%  
40 3% 85%  
41 18% 82%  
42 7% 65%  
43 21% 57% Median
44 28% 37%  
45 2% 9% Last Result
46 4% 7%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.7% 0.9%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 1.0% 99.6%  
32 2% 98.7%  
33 9% 97%  
34 14% 88%  
35 18% 73%  
36 22% 56% Last Result, Median
37 27% 33%  
38 3% 6%  
39 2% 3%  
40 1.2% 2%  
41 0.3% 0.4%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 1.1% 100%  
21 1.5% 98.8%  
22 7% 97%  
23 10% 91%  
24 17% 80%  
25 35% 64% Median
26 10% 28%  
27 14% 18%  
28 2% 4%  
29 1.4% 2% Last Result
30 0.4% 0.5%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations