Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS for ERR, 5–16 September 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Reformierakond | 28.9% | 33.6% | 31.7–35.5% | 31.2–36.0% | 30.7–36.5% | 29.9–37.4% |
| Eesti Keskerakond | 23.1% | 22.0% | 20.4–23.7% | 20.0–24.2% | 19.6–24.6% | 18.9–25.5% |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 17.8% | 19.9% | 18.4–21.6% | 18.0–22.0% | 17.6–22.5% | 16.9–23.3% |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.4–10.7% | 8.0–11.1% | 7.8–11.4% | 7.3–12.0% |
| Erakond Isamaa | 11.4% | 6.3% | 5.5–7.4% | 5.2–7.7% | 5.0–8.0% | 4.6–8.6% |
| Eesti 200 | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.5–6.3% | 4.3–6.6% | 4.1–6.8% | 3.7–7.3% |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.2–3.6% |
| Eesti Vabaerakond | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Reformierakond | 34 | 36 | 36–40 | 36–42 | 35–42 | 34–44 |
| Eesti Keskerakond | 26 | 24 | 22–26 | 21–26 | 21–27 | 20–28 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 19 | 21 | 19–23 | 18–23 | 18–24 | 17–25 |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 10 | 9 | 8–10 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 7–12 |
| Erakond Isamaa | 12 | 6 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 0–8 |
| Eesti 200 | 0 | 5 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eesti Vabaerakond | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Eesti Reformierakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 35 | 4% | 99.3% | |
| 36 | 48% | 95% | Median |
| 37 | 26% | 47% | |
| 38 | 9% | 20% | |
| 39 | 2% | 12% | |
| 40 | 2% | 10% | |
| 41 | 1.5% | 8% | |
| 42 | 5% | 7% | |
| 43 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 21 | 6% | 98.6% | |
| 22 | 6% | 93% | |
| 23 | 23% | 87% | |
| 24 | 25% | 63% | Median |
| 25 | 20% | 38% | |
| 26 | 14% | 18% | Last Result |
| 27 | 2% | 4% | |
| 28 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 5% | 99.4% | |
| 19 | 6% | 94% | Last Result |
| 20 | 37% | 88% | |
| 21 | 12% | 51% | Median |
| 22 | 22% | 39% | |
| 23 | 13% | 17% | |
| 24 | 2% | 4% | |
| 25 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 5% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 14% | 95% | |
| 9 | 41% | 81% | Median |
| 10 | 31% | 40% | Last Result |
| 11 | 8% | 9% | |
| 12 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Erakond Isamaa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 98% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98% | |
| 3 | 0% | 98% | |
| 4 | 4% | 98% | |
| 5 | 25% | 94% | |
| 6 | 57% | 69% | Median |
| 7 | 11% | 12% | |
| 8 | 2% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti 200
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 86% | |
| 2 | 0% | 86% | |
| 3 | 0% | 86% | |
| 4 | 32% | 86% | |
| 5 | 49% | 55% | Median |
| 6 | 5% | 6% | |
| 7 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Eesti Vabaerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 79 | 82 | 100% | 80–86 | 79–87 | 79–88 | 78–90 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa | 65 | 63 | 100% | 62–66 | 61–67 | 61–68 | 59–70 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond | 60 | 61 | 100% | 59–64 | 58–65 | 57–66 | 57–68 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 53 | 58 | 100% | 56–61 | 55–62 | 55–64 | 54–65 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond | 56 | 52 | 90% | 51–54 | 49–55 | 49–56 | 48–58 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa | 56 | 52 | 90% | 51–54 | 49–55 | 49–56 | 48–58 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa | 57 | 51 | 59% | 48–53 | 46–54 | 46–54 | 44–56 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 44 | 46 | 3% | 44–49 | 44–50 | 43–51 | 42–53 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 45 | 45 | 0.7% | 43–48 | 41–49 | 41–49 | 39–51 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa | 46 | 42 | 0.1% | 41–44 | 41–47 | 40–48 | 38–50 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa | 48 | 39 | 0% | 37–41 | 35–42 | 34–42 | 33–43 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 36 | 33 | 0% | 31–35 | 29–36 | 29–37 | 28–37 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 29 | 30 | 0% | 28–33 | 27–33 | 27–34 | 26–35 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 78 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 79 | 6% | 98.7% | Last Result |
| 80 | 19% | 93% | |
| 81 | 18% | 74% | Median |
| 82 | 32% | 56% | |
| 83 | 9% | 24% | |
| 84 | 3% | 16% | |
| 85 | 2% | 13% | |
| 86 | 1.2% | 10% | |
| 87 | 7% | 9% | |
| 88 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 1.5% | |
| 90 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 1.2% | 99.5% | |
| 61 | 5% | 98% | |
| 62 | 20% | 93% | |
| 63 | 26% | 74% | Median |
| 64 | 27% | 48% | |
| 65 | 4% | 21% | Last Result |
| 66 | 9% | 17% | |
| 67 | 4% | 8% | |
| 68 | 2% | 4% | |
| 69 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 5% | 97% | |
| 59 | 7% | 92% | |
| 60 | 35% | 86% | Last Result, Median |
| 61 | 18% | 51% | |
| 62 | 14% | 33% | |
| 63 | 6% | 19% | |
| 64 | 8% | 14% | |
| 65 | 2% | 5% | |
| 66 | 2% | 4% | |
| 67 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 68 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 54 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 6% | 99.1% | |
| 56 | 19% | 94% | |
| 57 | 24% | 75% | Median |
| 58 | 22% | 50% | |
| 59 | 10% | 29% | |
| 60 | 4% | 19% | |
| 61 | 7% | 15% | |
| 62 | 4% | 8% | |
| 63 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 64 | 2% | 3% | |
| 65 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 49 | 6% | 98.5% | |
| 50 | 2% | 92% | |
| 51 | 40% | 90% | Median, Majority |
| 52 | 16% | 51% | |
| 53 | 20% | 35% | |
| 54 | 6% | 15% | |
| 55 | 4% | 8% | |
| 56 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 57 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 58 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 49 | 6% | 98.5% | |
| 50 | 2% | 92% | |
| 51 | 40% | 90% | Median, Majority |
| 52 | 16% | 51% | |
| 53 | 20% | 35% | |
| 54 | 6% | 15% | |
| 55 | 4% | 8% | |
| 56 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 57 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 58 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 46 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 47 | 2% | 95% | |
| 48 | 3% | 93% | |
| 49 | 21% | 90% | |
| 50 | 10% | 69% | |
| 51 | 22% | 59% | Median, Majority |
| 52 | 22% | 37% | |
| 53 | 6% | 15% | |
| 54 | 6% | 9% | |
| 55 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 56 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 44 | 6% | 96% | Last Result |
| 45 | 34% | 90% | Median |
| 46 | 11% | 56% | |
| 47 | 27% | 45% | |
| 48 | 6% | 17% | |
| 49 | 4% | 11% | |
| 50 | 5% | 8% | |
| 51 | 1.4% | 3% | Majority |
| 52 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 40 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 41 | 4% | 98% | |
| 42 | 4% | 94% | |
| 43 | 19% | 91% | |
| 44 | 9% | 71% | |
| 45 | 19% | 62% | Last Result, Median |
| 46 | 25% | 43% | |
| 47 | 7% | 18% | |
| 48 | 2% | 11% | |
| 49 | 6% | 9% | |
| 50 | 2% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 0.7% | Majority |
| 52 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 40 | 4% | 99.3% | |
| 41 | 11% | 96% | |
| 42 | 42% | 85% | Median |
| 43 | 25% | 43% | |
| 44 | 8% | 18% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 10% | |
| 46 | 2% | 9% | Last Result |
| 47 | 4% | 7% | |
| 48 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 49 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 50 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 34 | 4% | 99.0% | |
| 35 | 2% | 95% | |
| 36 | 3% | 94% | |
| 37 | 5% | 91% | |
| 38 | 7% | 85% | |
| 39 | 41% | 78% | Median |
| 40 | 24% | 37% | |
| 41 | 7% | 13% | |
| 42 | 4% | 5% | |
| 43 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 28 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 4% | 98.7% | |
| 30 | 2% | 95% | |
| 31 | 3% | 93% | |
| 32 | 5% | 89% | |
| 33 | 46% | 85% | Median |
| 34 | 18% | 38% | |
| 35 | 13% | 20% | |
| 36 | 4% | 7% | Last Result |
| 37 | 3% | 3% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 27 | 5% | 98% | |
| 28 | 14% | 94% | |
| 29 | 14% | 80% | Last Result |
| 30 | 21% | 66% | Median |
| 31 | 23% | 45% | |
| 32 | 11% | 23% | |
| 33 | 8% | 11% | |
| 34 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 35 | 2% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Turu-uuringute AS
- Commissioner(s): ERR
- Fieldwork period: 5–16 September 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1040
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.40%