Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 10–17 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 33.7% 31.8–35.7% 31.3–36.2% 30.8–36.7% 29.9–37.6%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 24.1% 22.4–25.9% 21.9–26.4% 21.6–26.9% 20.8–27.7%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 17.1% 15.7–18.7% 15.2–19.2% 14.9–19.6% 14.2–20.4%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 6.4% 5.5–7.5% 5.3–7.8% 5.0–8.1% 4.6–8.7%
Eesti 200 4.4% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.8% 3.6–7.3%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.9–4.8% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.5%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.1% 0.0–0.4% 0.0–0.5% 0.0–0.6% 0.0–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 40 37–43 37–43 36–45 34–45
Eesti Keskerakond 26 26 25–29 24–29 23–30 23–32
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 19 17–21 16–21 16–22 15–23
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 6–8 5–9 5–9 5–10
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 6 5–7 5–7 0–8 0–8
Eesti 200 0 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–5
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.8% Last Result
35 1.2% 99.4%  
36 3% 98%  
37 9% 95%  
38 7% 87%  
39 10% 79%  
40 28% 69% Median
41 9% 42%  
42 11% 32%  
43 16% 21%  
44 2% 5%  
45 3% 3%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 3% 99.8%  
24 6% 96%  
25 5% 91%  
26 36% 85% Last Result, Median
27 10% 50%  
28 16% 39%  
29 20% 24%  
30 1.2% 3%  
31 1.3% 2%  
32 0.4% 0.9%  
33 0.4% 0.5%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.1% 99.9%  
15 2% 99.8%  
16 3% 98%  
17 25% 95%  
18 17% 70%  
19 36% 53% Last Result, Median
20 7% 17%  
21 7% 10%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.7% 0.7%  
24 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0.2% 99.9%  
5 9% 99.7%  
6 49% 91% Median
7 23% 42%  
8 12% 19%  
9 6% 7%  
10 1.0% 1.0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0% 97%  
4 0.9% 97%  
5 37% 96%  
6 38% 58% Median
7 16% 21%  
8 4% 5%  
9 0.4% 0.4%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 41% 100% Last Result
1 0% 59%  
2 0% 59%  
3 0% 59%  
4 14% 59% Median
5 36% 45%  
6 8% 9%  
7 0.9% 1.0%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 0% 3%  
4 2% 3%  
5 0.9% 0.9%  
6 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 85 100% 82–89 81–90 81–90 80–93
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 67 100% 64–72 63–72 62–72 61–73
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 65 100% 62–68 61–69 60–70 58–71
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 59 100% 55–61 54–62 53–63 52–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 52 87% 50–55 49–57 48–58 46–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 52 87% 50–55 49–57 48–58 46–58
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 51 83% 50–55 48–56 47–57 46–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 46 6% 44–50 44–51 43–52 41–53
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 45 2% 43–49 42–49 41–50 40–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 45 0.6% 43–49 42–50 41–50 39–51
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 40 0% 36–42 35–43 35–44 33–46
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 33 0% 30–35 29–36 28–36 26–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 24 0% 22–27 21–27 20–28 19–29

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.8% Last Result
80 2% 99.6%  
81 4% 98%  
82 10% 94%  
83 5% 84%  
84 7% 78%  
85 28% 72% Median
86 8% 44%  
87 7% 36%  
88 5% 29%  
89 16% 23%  
90 7% 8%  
91 0.2% 1.1%  
92 0% 0.9%  
93 0.4% 0.9%  
94 0.2% 0.5%  
95 0.3% 0.3%  
96 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.2% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
61 0.7% 99.7%  
62 2% 99.0%  
63 6% 97%  
64 5% 91%  
65 10% 86%  
66 27% 77% Median
67 9% 50%  
68 13% 42%  
69 6% 29%  
70 4% 22%  
71 8% 18%  
72 9% 10%  
73 0.9% 1.2%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.4% 99.9%  
59 0.5% 99.5%  
60 2% 99.0%  
61 4% 97%  
62 8% 93%  
63 4% 85%  
64 8% 81%  
65 26% 73% Last Result, Median
66 16% 47%  
67 18% 31%  
68 7% 14%  
69 2% 7%  
70 3% 5%  
71 2% 2%  
72 0.2% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100% Majority
52 0.5% 99.7%  
53 2% 99.2% Last Result
54 6% 97%  
55 4% 91%  
56 7% 87%  
57 4% 80%  
58 9% 76%  
59 24% 67% Median
60 19% 43%  
61 18% 24%  
62 3% 6%  
63 1.4% 3%  
64 1.4% 2%  
65 0.4% 0.5%  
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.6% 99.7%  
47 0.5% 99.1%  
48 2% 98.6%  
49 4% 97%  
50 6% 93%  
51 29% 87% Majority
52 12% 58% Median
53 11% 45%  
54 10% 34%  
55 15% 24%  
56 1.3% 9% Last Result
57 5% 8%  
58 3% 3%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.6% 99.7%  
47 0.5% 99.1%  
48 2% 98.6%  
49 4% 97%  
50 6% 93%  
51 29% 87% Majority
52 12% 58% Median
53 11% 45%  
54 10% 34%  
55 15% 24%  
56 1.3% 9% Last Result
57 5% 8%  
58 3% 3%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.6% 99.9%  
47 2% 99.4%  
48 3% 97%  
49 3% 94%  
50 8% 91%  
51 33% 83% Median, Majority
52 22% 50%  
53 5% 28%  
54 8% 23%  
55 7% 15%  
56 3% 8%  
57 3% 5% Last Result
58 0.8% 2%  
59 0.9% 0.9%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.8%  
41 0.5% 99.7%  
42 0.9% 99.2%  
43 3% 98%  
44 11% 96%  
45 7% 84%  
46 31% 77% Last Result, Median
47 9% 46%  
48 9% 37%  
49 16% 28%  
50 7% 12%  
51 3% 6% Majority
52 2% 3%  
53 1.4% 1.4%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.5% 99.8%  
41 3% 99.4%  
42 5% 96%  
43 6% 91%  
44 17% 86%  
45 28% 68% Last Result, Median
46 15% 40%  
47 10% 25%  
48 5% 15%  
49 6% 10%  
50 2% 4%  
51 1.4% 2% Majority
52 0.7% 0.8%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.6% 99.9%  
40 1.1% 99.3%  
41 2% 98%  
42 3% 96%  
43 5% 94%  
44 7% 88% Last Result
45 33% 81%  
46 10% 48% Median
47 12% 38%  
48 4% 25%  
49 13% 22%  
50 8% 8%  
51 0.3% 0.6% Majority
52 0.3% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.1% 99.9%  
33 2% 99.9%  
34 0.6% 98%  
35 3% 98%  
36 5% 94%  
37 24% 89%  
38 4% 65% Median
39 10% 62%  
40 19% 52%  
41 19% 33%  
42 5% 14%  
43 6% 9%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.5% 1.0%  
46 0.5% 0.5%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 1.3% 99.9%  
27 0.3% 98.6%  
28 2% 98%  
29 6% 97%  
30 2% 91%  
31 27% 89%  
32 8% 62% Median
33 13% 54%  
34 20% 41%  
35 15% 20%  
36 3% 5% Last Result
37 1.1% 2%  
38 0.4% 1.0%  
39 0.6% 0.6%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0% 100%  
17 0.1% 99.9%  
18 0.2% 99.9%  
19 1.4% 99.7%  
20 1.1% 98%  
21 2% 97%  
22 6% 95%  
23 24% 89%  
24 31% 65%  
25 14% 34% Median
26 6% 19%  
27 11% 13%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations