Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 11–19 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 33.1% 31.3–34.9% 30.8–35.4% 30.4–35.8% 29.6–36.7%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 18.5% 17.1–20.1% 16.7–20.5% 16.4–20.9% 15.7–21.6%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 16.6% 15.3–18.1% 14.9–18.5% 14.6–18.9% 14.0–19.6%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 11.1% 10.0–12.4% 9.7–12.7% 9.4–13.1% 8.9–13.7%
Eesti 200 4.4% 7.6% 6.7–8.7% 6.4–9.0% 6.2–9.3% 5.8–9.8%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.1% 6.2–8.1% 5.9–8.4% 5.7–8.7% 5.3–9.2%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 5.1% 4.3–6.0% 4.1–6.3% 4.0–6.5% 3.6–7.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 37 35–40 34–40 34–41 33–42
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 19 18–21 17–22 16–23 16–23
Eesti Keskerakond 26 17 16–19 15–19 14–20 14–21
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 11 9–12 9–13 9–13 8–14
Eesti 200 0 7 6–8 6–8 5–9 5–9
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–8 5–8 5–8 4–9
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 4 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–6

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.3% 100%  
33 1.3% 99.7%  
34 4% 98% Last Result
35 9% 94%  
36 16% 85%  
37 21% 69% Median
38 20% 48%  
39 13% 28%  
40 11% 15%  
41 3% 5%  
42 1.2% 2%  
43 0.3% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 2% 99.9%  
17 4% 97%  
18 18% 93%  
19 30% 76% Last Result, Median
20 23% 45%  
21 14% 23%  
22 6% 9%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 3% 99.9%  
15 5% 97%  
16 20% 92%  
17 33% 71% Median
18 20% 38%  
19 15% 19%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.9% 1.0%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.8% 100%  
9 11% 99.2%  
10 25% 89% Last Result
11 30% 63% Median
12 27% 33%  
13 6% 6%  
14 0.6% 0.7%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 4% 99.9%  
6 24% 96%  
7 45% 72% Median
8 24% 27%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 1.1% 99.9%  
5 13% 98.8%  
6 42% 86% Median
7 33% 43%  
8 10% 11%  
9 0.8% 0.8%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 44% 100% Last Result
1 0% 56%  
2 0% 56%  
3 0% 56%  
4 22% 56% Median
5 31% 34%  
6 3% 3%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 74 100% 71–77 70–78 70–79 69–79
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 63 100% 61–66 60–67 59–67 58–70
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 57 100% 54–59 54–61 53–61 52–63
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 55 98% 52–57 51–58 51–58 49–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 55 98% 52–58 51–58 51–58 50–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 48 11% 45–51 45–52 44–53 43–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 44 0% 41–46 41–47 40–48 38–49
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 43 0% 41–46 40–46 39–47 38–48
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 36 0% 34–39 34–39 33–40 32–42
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 35 0% 32–37 32–38 31–38 30–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 31 0% 28–33 27–33 27–34 25–35
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 28 0% 26–31 25–31 25–32 24–32

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.3% 100%  
69 0.7% 99.7%  
70 4% 99.0%  
71 7% 95%  
72 12% 87%  
73 11% 75% Median
74 21% 64%  
75 16% 43%  
76 12% 27%  
77 9% 15%  
78 3% 6%  
79 2% 3% Last Result
80 0.3% 0.4%  
81 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 2% 99.9%  
59 0.7% 98%  
60 5% 97%  
61 15% 92%  
62 12% 77% Median
63 19% 65%  
64 14% 46%  
65 18% 32% Last Result
66 4% 13%  
67 7% 9%  
68 0.5% 2%  
69 0.5% 1.2%  
70 0.6% 0.7%  
71 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.3% 100% Majority
52 2% 99.7%  
53 2% 98% Last Result
54 8% 96%  
55 12% 87%  
56 17% 75% Median
57 21% 58%  
58 14% 37%  
59 14% 23%  
60 4% 9%  
61 4% 5%  
62 0.9% 2%  
63 0.6% 0.7%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.5% 99.9%  
50 1.3% 99.4%  
51 6% 98% Majority
52 11% 92%  
53 12% 81%  
54 16% 70% Median
55 14% 54%  
56 19% 40%  
57 12% 21%  
58 6% 8%  
59 1.5% 2%  
60 0.6% 0.9% Last Result
61 0.2% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 1.3% 99.6%  
51 5% 98% Majority
52 10% 93%  
53 12% 83%  
54 18% 71% Median
55 11% 52%  
56 19% 41% Last Result
57 11% 23%  
58 9% 11%  
59 1.2% 2%  
60 0.5% 0.8%  
61 0.2% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.5% 99.9%  
44 3% 99.5% Last Result
45 7% 97%  
46 8% 90%  
47 14% 82%  
48 23% 68% Median
49 12% 45%  
50 22% 33%  
51 2% 11% Majority
52 7% 9%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.5% 99.9%  
39 0.7% 99.4%  
40 3% 98.7%  
41 10% 96%  
42 13% 86%  
43 16% 74% Median
44 21% 57%  
45 8% 36%  
46 23% 28% Last Result
47 2% 5%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.7% 1.0%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.8% 99.8%  
39 4% 99.1%  
40 3% 95%  
41 14% 92%  
42 18% 78% Median
43 21% 60%  
44 12% 40%  
45 16% 27%  
46 7% 11%  
47 3% 4%  
48 0.8% 1.1%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 1.2% 99.9%  
33 4% 98.7%  
34 6% 95%  
35 9% 89%  
36 29% 79% Median
37 17% 50%  
38 16% 33%  
39 12% 17%  
40 3% 5%  
41 1.0% 1.5%  
42 0.4% 0.5%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 1.2% 99.8%  
31 2% 98.6%  
32 10% 97%  
33 21% 86%  
34 14% 65% Median
35 20% 51%  
36 18% 31%  
37 4% 13%  
38 8% 9%  
39 0.7% 1.0%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.5% 100%  
26 1.3% 99.5%  
27 4% 98%  
28 7% 94%  
29 20% 87% Last Result
30 16% 67% Median
31 26% 50%  
32 12% 24%  
33 7% 12%  
34 4% 5%  
35 0.4% 0.5%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 1.3% 99.8%  
25 6% 98.5%  
26 8% 93%  
27 24% 85%  
28 22% 61% Median
29 19% 39%  
30 9% 21%  
31 9% 11%  
32 2% 3%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations