Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 18–23 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 37.1% 35.2–39.1% 34.6–39.7% 34.2–40.1% 33.2–41.1%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 20.7% 19.1–22.4% 18.7–22.9% 18.3–23.3% 17.6–24.2%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 18.3% 16.8–20.0% 16.4–20.4% 16.0–20.8% 15.3–21.6%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.6% 7.6–9.8% 7.3–10.2% 7.0–10.5% 6.5–11.1%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.4% 4.6–6.4% 4.4–6.7% 4.2–7.0% 3.8–7.5%
Eesti 200 4.4% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.2–5.2%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 45 42–48 41–48 40–49 39–50
Eesti Keskerakond 26 23 20–26 20–27 20–27 19–27
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 20 18–23 18–23 17–23 17–24
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 7–10 7–10 7–10 6–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Eesti 200 0 0 0 0–5 0–5 0–5
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0–5
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.4% 99.9%  
40 3% 99.5%  
41 1.2% 96%  
42 7% 95%  
43 12% 88%  
44 11% 76%  
45 29% 65% Median
46 12% 36%  
47 9% 24%  
48 11% 15%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.7% 1.2%  
51 0.2% 0.5% Majority
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.8% 99.9%  
20 12% 99.0%  
21 6% 87%  
22 10% 80%  
23 34% 70% Median
24 13% 36%  
25 10% 23%  
26 7% 13% Last Result
27 6% 6%  
28 0.3% 0.4%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.5% 100%  
17 4% 99.5%  
18 18% 95%  
19 21% 77% Last Result
20 20% 56% Median
21 16% 36%  
22 8% 20%  
23 10% 12%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.4% 0.5%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 2% 100%  
7 18% 98%  
8 33% 79% Median
9 24% 47%  
10 21% 23% Last Result
11 2% 2%  
12 0.2% 0.4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 25% 100%  
1 0% 75%  
2 0% 75%  
3 0% 75%  
4 3% 75%  
5 50% 72% Median
6 20% 22%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 8%  
2 0% 8%  
3 0% 8%  
4 3% 8%  
5 5% 5%  
6 0.4% 0.5%  
7 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.1% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.9%  
2 0% 0.9%  
3 0% 0.9%  
4 0.3% 0.9%  
5 0.6% 0.6%  
6 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 88 100% 86–93 84–94 82–94 82–94
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 69 100% 66–73 66–73 65–73 62–73
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 68 100% 65–72 64–72 63–73 61–74
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 65 100% 62–68 61–69 60–69 59–72
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 58 99.3% 53–61 53–61 52–61 50–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 58 99.3% 53–61 53–61 52–61 50–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 54 89% 50–56 50–57 49–58 47–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 49 22% 46–53 44–53 44–53 42–54
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 47 6% 45–50 43–51 42–51 40–53
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 43 0% 40–47 40–48 40–48 37–50
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 36 0% 32–38 32–40 30–40 29–41
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 32 0% 28–34 28–35 28–35 27–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 28 0% 26–31 26–32 24–33 24–34

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100% Last Result
80 0.2% 100%  
81 0.2% 99.8%  
82 2% 99.6%  
83 0.8% 97%  
84 3% 97%  
85 3% 94%  
86 20% 91%  
87 20% 71%  
88 19% 51% Median
89 6% 32%  
90 5% 26%  
91 5% 21%  
92 4% 16%  
93 7% 12%  
94 5% 5%  
95 0.2% 0.2%  
96 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.4% 99.7%  
63 0.6% 99.3%  
64 0.7% 98.6%  
65 3% 98% Last Result
66 8% 95%  
67 13% 87%  
68 21% 74%  
69 20% 54%  
70 10% 34% Median
71 9% 24%  
72 3% 15%  
73 12% 12%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100% Last Result
61 0.8% 99.9%  
62 1.0% 99.1%  
63 2% 98%  
64 5% 96%  
65 5% 92%  
66 6% 86%  
67 13% 80%  
68 34% 67% Median
69 8% 33%  
70 6% 25%  
71 7% 19%  
72 8% 12%  
73 2% 4%  
74 1.2% 2%  
75 0.4% 0.4%  
76 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.4% 99.9%  
59 0.5% 99.5%  
60 2% 99.0%  
61 7% 97%  
62 3% 90%  
63 19% 87%  
64 18% 68%  
65 9% 50% Median
66 7% 41%  
67 15% 34%  
68 11% 19%  
69 6% 8%  
70 0.4% 2%  
71 1.0% 2%  
72 0.8% 0.8%  
73 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.3% 100%  
50 0.4% 99.7%  
51 1.4% 99.3% Majority
52 2% 98%  
53 7% 96%  
54 7% 89%  
55 5% 82%  
56 13% 77% Last Result
57 8% 64%  
58 14% 56% Median
59 18% 42%  
60 12% 24%  
61 12% 13%  
62 0.7% 0.9%  
63 0.1% 0.3%  
64 0.2% 0.2%  
65 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.3% 100%  
50 0.4% 99.7%  
51 1.4% 99.3% Majority
52 2% 98%  
53 7% 96%  
54 7% 89%  
55 5% 82%  
56 13% 77% Last Result
57 8% 64%  
58 14% 56% Median
59 18% 42%  
60 12% 24%  
61 12% 13%  
62 0.7% 0.9%  
63 0.1% 0.3%  
64 0.2% 0.2%  
65 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100% Last Result
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0.5% 99.9%  
48 2% 99.5%  
49 2% 98%  
50 7% 96%  
51 9% 89% Majority
52 14% 80%  
53 9% 66% Median
54 24% 57%  
55 16% 33%  
56 10% 17%  
57 2% 6%  
58 3% 4%  
59 0.3% 1.0%  
60 0.4% 0.7%  
61 0.3% 0.3%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 2% 99.7%  
43 0.6% 98%  
44 3% 98%  
45 4% 95%  
46 10% 91% Last Result
47 5% 80%  
48 15% 75%  
49 15% 61%  
50 23% 46% Median
51 6% 22% Majority
52 4% 16%  
53 11% 12%  
54 0.8% 1.0%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0% 99.9%  
40 0.5% 99.9%  
41 0.7% 99.5%  
42 1.3% 98.8%  
43 4% 97%  
44 2% 94%  
45 12% 91%  
46 18% 79%  
47 25% 62%  
48 9% 37% Median
49 13% 28%  
50 8% 15%  
51 5% 6% Majority
52 0.6% 1.4%  
53 0.4% 0.8%  
54 0.3% 0.3%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.7% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.3%  
39 0.9% 99.0%  
40 14% 98%  
41 12% 84%  
42 19% 72%  
43 14% 53% Median
44 9% 39%  
45 12% 30% Last Result
46 5% 18%  
47 6% 13%  
48 6% 7%  
49 0.5% 2%  
50 1.1% 1.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.4% 100%  
29 0.9% 99.5%  
30 1.2% 98.6%  
31 2% 97%  
32 6% 96%  
33 12% 89%  
34 16% 77%  
35 7% 61%  
36 10% 54% Median
37 18% 44%  
38 18% 27%  
39 2% 9%  
40 5% 7%  
41 1.0% 1.2%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 0.6% 99.8%  
28 13% 99.2%  
29 5% 86%  
30 10% 81%  
31 11% 70% Median
32 20% 59%  
33 20% 39%  
34 11% 20%  
35 6% 8%  
36 2% 2% Last Result
37 0.2% 0.3%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 3% 99.8%  
25 2% 97%  
26 7% 96%  
27 10% 89%  
28 37% 79% Median
29 17% 42% Last Result
30 14% 25%  
31 5% 11%  
32 3% 6%  
33 3% 3%  
34 0.4% 0.5%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations