Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 25–30 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 32.7% 30.8–34.6% 30.3–35.2% 29.9–35.7% 29.0–36.6%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 24.3% 22.6–26.1% 22.1–26.6% 21.7–27.1% 21.0–27.9%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 15.6% 14.2–17.2% 13.8–17.6% 13.5–18.0% 12.8–18.8%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.3% 7.3–9.5% 7.0–9.9% 6.7–10.2% 6.3–10.8%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.4% 6.4–8.6% 6.2–8.9% 5.9–9.2% 5.5–9.8%
Eesti 200 4.4% 6.2% 5.3–7.3% 5.1–7.6% 4.9–7.9% 4.5–8.4%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 38 35–40 34–40 34–41 33–43
Eesti Keskerakond 26 27 25–29 25–30 24–30 23–32
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 16 15–18 14–19 14–19 13–20
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 7–9 6–10 6–10 6–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 7 6–8 5–9 5–9 5–10
Eesti 200 0 6 5–7 4–7 4–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.6% 99.8%  
34 6% 99.2% Last Result
35 12% 93%  
36 12% 81%  
37 10% 69%  
38 20% 59% Median
39 26% 39%  
40 9% 13%  
41 2% 5%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0.5% 0.5%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 2% 99.8%  
24 2% 98%  
25 22% 96%  
26 15% 75% Last Result
27 24% 60% Median
28 20% 36%  
29 7% 16%  
30 6% 8%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.7% 0.7%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 1.1% 99.9%  
14 7% 98.9%  
15 17% 92%  
16 44% 75% Median
17 15% 30%  
18 9% 15%  
19 4% 6% Last Result
20 2% 2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.5% 100%  
6 5% 99.5%  
7 31% 95%  
8 41% 64% Median
9 16% 23%  
10 6% 7% Last Result
11 0.8% 0.8%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0.1% 99.9%  
5 6% 99.9%  
6 21% 94%  
7 58% 74% Median
8 11% 16%  
9 5% 5%  
10 0.7% 0.7%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 7% 98%  
5 36% 91%  
6 45% 55% Median
7 8% 10%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 81 100% 79–83 79–83 78–84 76–87
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 65 100% 62–67 62–67 61–69 60–70
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 61 100% 58–62 57–63 57–64 56–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 54 97% 51–56 51–57 50–58 49–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 52 80% 49–55 49–56 48–56 48–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 52 80% 49–55 49–56 48–56 48–57
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 50 38% 47–53 47–53 46–54 46–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 45 0.4% 43–48 42–49 41–49 41–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 45 0.2% 41–47 41–47 41–48 40–50
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 43 0% 41–46 40–46 40–47 39–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 41 0% 40–44 39–45 38–46 37–47
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 34 0% 33–37 32–38 32–39 30–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 24 0% 23–26 22–26 21–27 20–29

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.5% 99.9%  
77 2% 99.4%  
78 3% 98%  
79 14% 95% Last Result
80 30% 81%  
81 24% 51% Median
82 15% 27%  
83 7% 12%  
84 2% 5%  
85 1.2% 2%  
86 0.5% 1.2%  
87 0.5% 0.7%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 1.2% 99.8% Last Result
61 3% 98.6%  
62 10% 96%  
63 10% 86%  
64 25% 76%  
65 25% 50% Median
66 12% 25%  
67 9% 13%  
68 2% 5%  
69 2% 3%  
70 0.6% 0.9%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.4% 100%  
56 0.6% 99.6%  
57 5% 99.0%  
58 4% 94%  
59 16% 90%  
60 11% 74%  
61 29% 63% Median
62 25% 34%  
63 5% 9%  
64 1.2% 4%  
65 1.4% 2% Last Result
66 0.4% 1.0%  
67 0.5% 0.6%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.6% 99.8%  
50 3% 99.2%  
51 8% 97% Majority
52 16% 88%  
53 10% 73% Last Result
54 25% 63% Median
55 24% 37%  
56 7% 13%  
57 3% 6%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.7% 1.0%  
60 0.1% 0.3%  
61 0.2% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 3% 99.6%  
49 7% 97%  
50 10% 90%  
51 10% 80% Majority
52 21% 70%  
53 16% 49% Median
54 20% 33%  
55 8% 13%  
56 4% 6% Last Result
57 0.9% 1.3%  
58 0.2% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 3% 99.6%  
49 7% 97%  
50 10% 90%  
51 10% 80% Majority
52 21% 70%  
53 16% 49% Median
54 20% 33%  
55 8% 13%  
56 4% 6% Last Result
57 0.9% 1.3%  
58 0.2% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.2% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.8%  
46 3% 99.6%  
47 8% 97%  
48 18% 89%  
49 9% 71%  
50 24% 61% Median
51 13% 38% Majority
52 10% 25%  
53 11% 14%  
54 1.5% 4%  
55 1.4% 2%  
56 0.5% 0.7%  
57 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.7%  
42 4% 97%  
43 9% 93%  
44 16% 84% Last Result
45 20% 68%  
46 11% 47% Median
47 23% 36%  
48 4% 13%  
49 7% 9%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0.3% 0.4% Majority
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.3% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.7%  
41 10% 99.3%  
42 8% 89%  
43 13% 81%  
44 4% 68%  
45 29% 64% Median
46 25% 35% Last Result
47 8% 10%  
48 1.2% 3%  
49 0.8% 1.3%  
50 0.3% 0.5%  
51 0.1% 0.2% Majority
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.9%  
39 1.1% 99.6%  
40 6% 98.6%  
41 22% 92%  
42 8% 71%  
43 26% 63% Median
44 12% 37%  
45 10% 26% Last Result
46 11% 16%  
47 3% 5%  
48 1.5% 2%  
49 0.6% 0.7%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.3% 100%  
37 1.0% 99.6%  
38 3% 98.7%  
39 5% 96%  
40 21% 91%  
41 22% 71%  
42 16% 48% Median
43 13% 32%  
44 10% 19%  
45 6% 9%  
46 2% 3%  
47 0.5% 0.6%  
48 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.6% 99.9%  
31 1.2% 99.3%  
32 4% 98%  
33 19% 94%  
34 26% 75%  
35 13% 48% Median
36 18% 36% Last Result
37 10% 18%  
38 5% 8%  
39 3% 3%  
40 0.3% 0.5%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100%  
20 0.5% 99.9%  
21 2% 99.5%  
22 5% 97%  
23 31% 91%  
24 30% 61% Median
25 11% 31%  
26 15% 20%  
27 3% 5%  
28 1.5% 2%  
29 0.5% 0.7% Last Result
30 0.1% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations