Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 1–8 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 35.6% 33.7–37.6% 33.2–38.1% 32.7–38.6% 31.8–39.6%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 22.2% 20.6–24.0% 20.1–24.4% 19.7–24.9% 19.0–25.7%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 15.2% 13.8–16.8% 13.4–17.2% 13.1–17.6% 12.5–18.3%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.2% 8.1–10.5% 7.8–10.8% 7.6–11.2% 7.1–11.8%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.8%
Eesti 200 4.4% 6.1% 5.2–7.2% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–7.8% 4.4–8.3%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.4% 1.9–3.2% 1.7–3.4% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–3.9%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 40 38–43 38–45 37–45 37–48
Eesti Keskerakond 26 24 22–26 21–27 21–27 20–29
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 16 15–18 14–18 13–19 12–19
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 8–10 7–11 7–11 6–12
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–7 5–8 0–8 0–8
Eesti 200 0 6 4–7 0–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.8%  
37 3% 99.5%  
38 10% 97%  
39 27% 87%  
40 12% 59% Median
41 17% 47%  
42 18% 31%  
43 5% 12%  
44 3% 8%  
45 3% 5%  
46 1.3% 2%  
47 0.4% 1.1%  
48 0.7% 0.8%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 0.6% 99.7%  
21 5% 99.2%  
22 13% 94%  
23 14% 81%  
24 31% 67% Median
25 14% 36%  
26 14% 21% Last Result
27 5% 7%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.4% 0.5%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 1.0% 99.9%  
13 3% 98.9%  
14 5% 96%  
15 9% 90%  
16 40% 81% Median
17 25% 41%  
18 13% 16%  
19 3% 3% Last Result
20 0.2% 0.4%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.8% 100%  
7 9% 99.2%  
8 23% 90%  
9 28% 67% Median
10 32% 39% Last Result
11 5% 6%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0% 97%  
4 1.5% 97%  
5 22% 95%  
6 52% 73% Median
7 16% 21%  
8 5% 5%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100% Last Result
1 0% 94%  
2 0% 94%  
3 0% 94%  
4 9% 94%  
5 34% 85%  
6 37% 52% Median
7 13% 15%  
8 1.4% 1.4%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 80 100% 79–83 78–86 77–86 76–87
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 64 100% 63–68 63–70 62–71 61–72
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 62 100% 60–66 59–66 59–67 57–68
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 57 99.9% 54–60 53–60 53–61 52–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 55 99.2% 53–58 53–59 52–60 50–63
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 55 99.2% 53–58 53–59 52–60 50–63
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 49 25% 47–52 47–53 46–55 45–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 46 3% 44–49 43–50 43–51 40–54
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 46 2% 44–49 43–49 41–50 40–51
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 40 0% 38–43 37–44 37–45 35–46
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 39 0% 36–42 35–42 35–43 34–44
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 33 0% 31–36 30–36 29–37 29–38
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 26 0% 23–27 22–28 21–28 20–29

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.6% 100%  
77 2% 99.3%  
78 5% 97%  
79 19% 93% Last Result
80 27% 74% Median
81 18% 47%  
82 10% 29%  
83 9% 19%  
84 2% 10%  
85 1.3% 7%  
86 4% 6%  
87 2% 2%  
88 0.3% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.2% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
61 0.9% 99.6%  
62 4% 98.7%  
63 34% 95%  
64 23% 61% Median
65 20% 38%  
66 3% 18%  
67 2% 15%  
68 4% 13%  
69 3% 8%  
70 2% 5%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.8% 1.1%  
73 0.3% 0.3%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.4% 99.8%  
58 0.6% 99.4%  
59 4% 98.8%  
60 15% 95%  
61 20% 80%  
62 13% 60% Median
63 8% 47%  
64 17% 40%  
65 12% 23% Last Result
66 7% 10%  
67 1.3% 3%  
68 1.5% 2%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9% Majority
52 1.3% 99.7%  
53 4% 98% Last Result
54 10% 94%  
55 21% 84%  
56 12% 63% Median
57 9% 52%  
58 24% 43%  
59 5% 19%  
60 10% 14%  
61 2% 4%  
62 2% 2%  
63 0.2% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.2% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.8%  
50 0.5% 99.7%  
51 1.3% 99.2% Majority
52 3% 98%  
53 16% 95%  
54 10% 79%  
55 27% 69% Median
56 18% 41% Last Result
57 8% 24%  
58 7% 15%  
59 5% 8%  
60 1.3% 3%  
61 0.6% 2%  
62 0.5% 1.1%  
63 0.6% 0.7%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.2% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.8%  
50 0.5% 99.7%  
51 1.3% 99.2% Majority
52 3% 98%  
53 16% 95%  
54 10% 79%  
55 27% 69% Median
56 18% 41% Last Result
57 8% 24%  
58 7% 15%  
59 5% 8%  
60 1.3% 3%  
61 0.6% 2%  
62 0.5% 1.1%  
63 0.6% 0.7%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100% Last Result
45 0.6% 99.8%  
46 4% 99.2%  
47 9% 96%  
48 17% 87%  
49 26% 70% Median
50 18% 43%  
51 10% 25% Majority
52 7% 15%  
53 3% 8%  
54 0.9% 5%  
55 2% 4%  
56 0.5% 1.3%  
57 0.7% 0.8%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.9%  
41 0.5% 99.5%  
42 0.5% 99.0%  
43 4% 98.5%  
44 13% 95%  
45 26% 81%  
46 10% 55% Last Result, Median
47 18% 45%  
48 8% 26%  
49 11% 18%  
50 4% 7%  
51 1.0% 3% Majority
52 1.3% 2%  
53 0.3% 1.0%  
54 0.6% 0.7%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.6% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.2%  
42 2% 97%  
43 4% 96%  
44 6% 92%  
45 18% 86%  
46 31% 68% Median
47 14% 37%  
48 11% 23%  
49 8% 12%  
50 2% 4%  
51 2% 2% Majority
52 0.1% 0.3%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.9%  
36 2% 99.5%  
37 3% 98%  
38 8% 95%  
39 21% 87%  
40 22% 66% Median
41 20% 44%  
42 12% 24%  
43 7% 12%  
44 2% 5%  
45 2% 3% Last Result
46 0.5% 0.7%  
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 0.5% 99.6%  
35 5% 99.1%  
36 7% 94%  
37 12% 87%  
38 17% 75%  
39 17% 58% Median
40 20% 41%  
41 7% 21%  
42 10% 14%  
43 3% 4%  
44 0.5% 0.7%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 4% 99.7%  
30 3% 96%  
31 13% 93%  
32 26% 80%  
33 8% 55% Median
34 26% 47%  
35 6% 21%  
36 12% 15% Last Result
37 2% 3%  
38 1.1% 1.3%  
39 0.2% 0.2%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 1.1% 99.9%  
21 2% 98.8%  
22 4% 97%  
23 3% 92%  
24 8% 89%  
25 28% 81% Median
26 41% 53%  
27 6% 11%  
28 3% 5%  
29 2% 2% Last Result
30 0.1% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations