Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS for ERR, 3–13 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 32.0% 30.2–33.9% 29.7–34.5% 29.2–34.9% 28.4–35.8%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 22.0% 20.4–23.7% 20.0–24.2% 19.6–24.6% 18.9–25.5%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 17.0% 15.6–18.6% 15.2–19.0% 14.9–19.4% 14.2–20.2%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.0% 8.0–10.3% 7.7–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 7.0–11.6%
Eesti 200 4.4% 7.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.7% 5.2–9.3%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.0% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.9–4.6%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 38 35–40 34–40 34–41 33–42
Eesti Keskerakond 26 24 23–27 22–27 22–28 21–29
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 18 17–20 16–21 16–21 15–22
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 7–10 7–11 7–11 7–12
Eesti 200 0 7 6–8 6–8 5–8 5–9
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 5–6 0–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 2% 99.8%  
34 4% 98% Last Result
35 9% 94%  
36 12% 85%  
37 18% 73%  
38 30% 55% Median
39 6% 25%  
40 16% 19%  
41 1.4% 3%  
42 1.3% 2%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.3% 100%  
21 2% 99.7%  
22 6% 98%  
23 14% 92%  
24 35% 78% Median
25 24% 43%  
26 8% 19% Last Result
27 9% 12%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.5% 0.7%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 1.3% 99.8%  
16 5% 98.6%  
17 29% 93%  
18 34% 64% Median
19 13% 31% Last Result
20 10% 18%  
21 7% 8%  
22 1.0% 1.2%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.3% 100%  
7 10% 99.7%  
8 14% 90%  
9 51% 76% Median
10 20% 25% Last Result
11 4% 5%  
12 0.6% 0.7%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0.1% 99.8%  
5 4% 99.8%  
6 33% 95%  
7 51% 62% Median
8 9% 11%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 0% 95%  
2 0% 95%  
3 0% 95%  
4 4% 95%  
5 48% 90% Median
6 35% 43%  
7 7% 8%  
8 0.7% 0.7%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 80 100% 78–82 78–83 77–85 76–86
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 62 100% 60–64 59–65 59–66 57–68
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 60 100% 59–63 58–64 57–65 56–66
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 55 99.5% 54–58 53–59 52–60 50–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 52 76% 48–54 48–54 47–55 46–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 52 76% 48–54 48–54 47–55 46–56
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 48 12% 46–51 45–52 45–52 43–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 47 1.3% 43–49 43–49 42–50 42–52
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 42 0% 41–46 40–47 39–47 38–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 43 0% 40–46 39–46 38–46 36–48
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 39 0% 37–41 35–42 34–43 33–44
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 33 0% 31–35 31–36 30–37 29–38
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 27 0% 25–30 25–30 24–30 24–32

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.2% 100%  
76 0.4% 99.8%  
77 2% 99.4%  
78 9% 97%  
79 30% 88% Last Result
80 24% 58% Median
81 14% 34%  
82 13% 20%  
83 2% 6%  
84 1.2% 5%  
85 2% 4%  
86 0.9% 1.1%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.5% 99.8%  
58 2% 99.3%  
59 7% 98%  
60 11% 91% Last Result
61 20% 80%  
62 16% 60% Median
63 28% 44%  
64 10% 16%  
65 2% 6%  
66 3% 4%  
67 0.3% 1.0%  
68 0.6% 0.7%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 1.2% 99.6%  
57 2% 98%  
58 4% 97%  
59 9% 93%  
60 35% 84%  
61 17% 49% Median
62 8% 32%  
63 13% 23%  
64 7% 10%  
65 2% 3% Last Result
66 0.5% 0.6%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.5% 100%  
51 2% 99.5% Majority
52 2% 98%  
53 4% 96% Last Result
54 10% 92%  
55 43% 82%  
56 8% 39% Median
57 11% 31%  
58 13% 20%  
59 3% 7%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.7% 1.2%  
62 0.4% 0.4%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.3% 100%  
46 0.4% 99.6%  
47 2% 99.2%  
48 7% 97%  
49 3% 89%  
50 10% 86%  
51 6% 76% Majority
52 37% 70% Median
53 16% 32%  
54 13% 17%  
55 3% 4%  
56 0.7% 0.9% Last Result
57 0.2% 0.2%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.3% 100%  
46 0.4% 99.6%  
47 2% 99.2%  
48 7% 97%  
49 3% 89%  
50 10% 86%  
51 6% 76% Majority
52 37% 70% Median
53 16% 32%  
54 13% 17%  
55 3% 4%  
56 0.7% 0.9% Last Result
57 0.2% 0.2%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.2% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.8%  
43 0.8% 99.7%  
44 1.3% 98.9%  
45 7% 98%  
46 15% 91%  
47 24% 76% Median
48 28% 52%  
49 4% 24%  
50 7% 20%  
51 6% 12% Majority
52 6% 6%  
53 0.6% 0.8%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.4% 99.9%  
42 3% 99.5%  
43 8% 97%  
44 4% 89% Last Result
45 8% 85%  
46 19% 77%  
47 29% 58% Median
48 17% 29%  
49 9% 12%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.6% 1.3% Majority
52 0.6% 0.7%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.9% 99.9%  
39 2% 99.0%  
40 2% 97%  
41 22% 95%  
42 39% 73% Median
43 10% 34%  
44 6% 24%  
45 8% 18% Last Result
46 3% 10%  
47 7% 7%  
48 0.4% 0.7%  
49 0.3% 0.3%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.7%  
37 0.5% 99.5%  
38 3% 99.0%  
39 3% 96%  
40 6% 94%  
41 14% 87%  
42 6% 74%  
43 40% 67% Median
44 8% 27%  
45 9% 19%  
46 9% 10% Last Result
47 0.4% 1.0%  
48 0.5% 0.6%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.1% 99.9%  
33 0.7% 99.8%  
34 2% 99.1%  
35 3% 97%  
36 3% 94%  
37 18% 91%  
38 12% 74% Median
39 38% 62%  
40 13% 24%  
41 6% 11%  
42 2% 5%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.6% 0.7%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 1.3% 99.9%  
30 2% 98.6%  
31 9% 97%  
32 15% 88%  
33 24% 73% Median
34 27% 49%  
35 13% 21%  
36 5% 9% Last Result
37 2% 4%  
38 1.4% 2%  
39 0.3% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.4% 99.9%  
24 2% 99.5%  
25 12% 97%  
26 22% 85%  
27 30% 63% Median
28 15% 33%  
29 8% 18% Last Result
30 8% 10%  
31 1.0% 2%  
32 0.9% 1.0%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations