Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 9–14 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 30.9% 29.1–32.8% 28.5–33.4% 28.1–33.8% 27.3–34.8%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 26.0% 24.3–27.8% 23.8–28.4% 23.4–28.8% 22.6–29.7%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 17.7% 16.2–19.3% 15.8–19.8% 15.5–20.2% 14.8–21.0%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
Eesti 200 4.4% 5.6% 4.8–6.6% 4.5–7.0% 4.3–7.2% 4.0–7.7%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 35 33–38 32–38 31–39 30–40
Eesti Keskerakond 26 28 26–31 26–31 25–32 24–33
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 19 17–21 16–22 16–22 15–22
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 6–9 6–9 6–10 6–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 7 6–8 5–8 5–9 5–9
Eesti 200 0 5 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.7% 99.9%  
31 2% 99.2%  
32 7% 97%  
33 10% 90%  
34 14% 81% Last Result
35 20% 67% Median
36 18% 47%  
37 17% 30%  
38 10% 13%  
39 1.3% 3%  
40 1.4% 2%  
41 0.1% 0.3%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.7% 99.9%  
25 4% 99.2%  
26 16% 95% Last Result
27 16% 79%  
28 21% 63% Median
29 20% 43%  
30 8% 23%  
31 11% 15%  
32 3% 5%  
33 1.1% 1.4%  
34 0.3% 0.4%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 1.5% 99.8%  
16 6% 98%  
17 8% 92%  
18 19% 84%  
19 23% 65% Last Result, Median
20 19% 42%  
21 16% 23%  
22 7% 7%  
23 0.4% 0.5%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100%  
6 11% 99.7%  
7 24% 88%  
8 41% 64% Median
9 20% 24%  
10 3% 4% Last Result
11 0.9% 0.9%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0.3% 99.9%  
5 7% 99.6%  
6 32% 92%  
7 33% 60% Median
8 23% 27%  
9 3% 4%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 24% 100% Last Result
1 0% 76%  
2 0% 76%  
3 0% 76%  
4 25% 76%  
5 38% 51% Median
6 12% 13%  
7 1.2% 1.3%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 83 100% 79–86 79–87 79–87 78–88
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 64 100% 61–67 60–68 60–68 58–70
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 61 100% 59–64 57–64 55–64 54–66
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 54 95% 52–57 50–58 50–58 49–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 55 95% 52–57 51–57 49–58 47–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 50 48% 47–52 46–53 46–54 44–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 50 48% 47–52 46–53 46–54 44–56
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 47 14% 44–51 44–51 43–51 42–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 44 0% 40–45 40–46 39–47 38–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 43 0.1% 40–46 39–46 38–47 38–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 43 0% 39–44 39–45 38–46 36–47
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 35 0% 34–39 33–40 32–40 32–42
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 27 0% 24–29 24–30 23–30 22–32

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.4% 100%  
78 1.3% 99.6%  
79 11% 98% Last Result
80 10% 87%  
81 14% 77%  
82 10% 63% Median
83 17% 53%  
84 10% 36%  
85 7% 26%  
86 12% 19%  
87 5% 7%  
88 2% 2%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.9% 99.9%  
59 2% 99.1%  
60 4% 98% Last Result
61 21% 94%  
62 5% 73%  
63 17% 68% Median
64 16% 50%  
65 14% 34%  
66 10% 20%  
67 5% 10%  
68 4% 5%  
69 0.8% 2%  
70 0.8% 1.0%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.4% 100%  
54 0.5% 99.6%  
55 2% 99.1%  
56 2% 97%  
57 1.3% 95%  
58 2% 94%  
59 5% 92%  
60 12% 88%  
61 28% 76% Median
62 27% 47%  
63 8% 21%  
64 11% 13%  
65 1.2% 2% Last Result
66 0.6% 0.6%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 1.2% 99.9%  
50 4% 98.7%  
51 4% 95% Majority
52 28% 91%  
53 8% 63%  
54 10% 54% Median
55 9% 45%  
56 13% 36%  
57 14% 23% Last Result
58 7% 9%  
59 1.4% 2%  
60 0.8% 1.1%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.5% 99.9%  
48 0.7% 99.4%  
49 2% 98.8%  
50 1.5% 97%  
51 3% 95% Majority
52 10% 92%  
53 17% 82% Last Result
54 13% 65% Median
55 12% 52%  
56 24% 40%  
57 11% 16%  
58 3% 4%  
59 1.1% 1.4%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.6% 99.9%  
45 0.9% 99.3%  
46 7% 98%  
47 8% 91%  
48 11% 83%  
49 7% 71%  
50 16% 64% Median
51 23% 48% Majority
52 19% 25%  
53 3% 6%  
54 1.1% 3%  
55 1.2% 2%  
56 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.6% 99.9%  
45 0.9% 99.3%  
46 7% 98%  
47 8% 91%  
48 11% 83%  
49 7% 71%  
50 16% 64% Median
51 23% 48% Majority
52 19% 25%  
53 3% 6%  
54 1.1% 3%  
55 1.2% 2%  
56 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.3% 100%  
42 0.8% 99.6%  
43 3% 98.8%  
44 12% 95%  
45 8% 84% Last Result
46 20% 76%  
47 10% 56% Median
48 9% 47%  
49 13% 38%  
50 11% 25%  
51 12% 14% Majority
52 0.6% 2%  
53 1.3% 1.5%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 0.7% 99.6%  
39 2% 98.9%  
40 13% 97%  
41 11% 84%  
42 8% 74%  
43 13% 65% Median
44 26% 52% Last Result
45 19% 26%  
46 4% 7%  
47 1.4% 3%  
48 1.2% 2%  
49 0.6% 0.8%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 3% 99.9%  
39 2% 97%  
40 8% 95%  
41 19% 87%  
42 8% 67%  
43 19% 59% Median
44 17% 40%  
45 10% 23%  
46 9% 13%  
47 2% 4%  
48 0.8% 1.3% Last Result
49 0.4% 0.5%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.7% 99.9%  
37 0.9% 99.3%  
38 3% 98%  
39 7% 95%  
40 12% 88%  
41 10% 76%  
42 10% 66% Median
43 35% 56%  
44 13% 21%  
45 5% 8%  
46 2% 3% Last Result
47 0.8% 0.9%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 3% 99.9%  
33 3% 97%  
34 11% 94%  
35 33% 82%  
36 8% 49% Last Result, Median
37 19% 41%  
38 9% 22%  
39 7% 13%  
40 4% 6%  
41 1.1% 2%  
42 0.3% 0.5%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.9% 99.9%  
23 3% 99.1%  
24 7% 96%  
25 10% 89%  
26 12% 79%  
27 33% 68% Median
28 15% 35%  
29 15% 20% Last Result
30 3% 5%  
31 1.0% 2%  
32 0.7% 0.8%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations