Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 10–16 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 32.7% 31.0–34.5% 30.5–35.0% 30.1–35.5% 29.3–36.3%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 17.7% 16.3–19.2% 15.9–19.6% 15.6–20.0% 15.0–20.7%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 16.8% 15.4–18.2% 15.0–18.6% 14.7–19.0% 14.1–19.7%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 12.5% 11.4–13.8% 11.0–14.2% 10.7–14.5% 10.2–15.2%
Eesti 200 4.4% 9.5% 8.5–10.7% 8.2–11.0% 7.9–11.3% 7.5–11.9%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.3% 5.4–7.3% 5.2–7.5% 5.0–7.8% 4.6–8.3%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.0% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.1% 1.9–4.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 38 36–39 35–40 34–41 33–42
Eesti Keskerakond 26 19 17–21 17–21 16–21 15–22
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 17 16–19 16–20 15–20 14–21
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 13 11–14 11–14 10–15 10–16
Eesti 200 0 9 8–10 7–11 7–11 7–12
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 5–7 4–7 4–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.6% 99.9%  
34 4% 99.3% Last Result
35 5% 96%  
36 15% 90%  
37 23% 75%  
38 29% 52% Median
39 13% 23%  
40 6% 10%  
41 3% 4%  
42 0.5% 0.8%  
43 0.3% 0.3%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.5% 99.9%  
16 4% 99.5%  
17 12% 96%  
18 25% 84%  
19 25% 58% Median
20 22% 33%  
21 9% 11%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.2% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.8% 100%  
15 4% 99.1%  
16 19% 96%  
17 31% 77% Median
18 25% 46%  
19 13% 22% Last Result
20 7% 8%  
21 1.1% 1.3%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 3% 99.9% Last Result
11 17% 97%  
12 28% 80%  
13 29% 52% Median
14 19% 23%  
15 3% 4%  
16 0.8% 0.9%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 6% 99.9%  
8 25% 94%  
9 29% 70% Median
10 33% 40%  
11 7% 8%  
12 0.9% 1.0%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 3% 98%  
5 44% 94% Median
6 38% 50%  
7 11% 12%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 74 100% 72–76 71–76 71–77 70–79
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 61 100% 58–63 58–64 57–64 56–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 57 100% 54–58 53–59 53–59 51–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 55 99.4% 53–57 52–58 52–59 50–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 56 99.6% 53–58 53–58 52–59 51–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 50 40% 48–52 47–53 47–54 46–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 43 0% 41–45 40–46 39–47 38–47
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 42 0% 40–44 39–45 38–45 37–46
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 37 0% 34–39 34–39 33–41 32–41
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 36 0% 34–38 34–39 33–40 32–41
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 31 0% 29–34 29–34 28–34 27–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 30 0% 28–32 28–33 27–33 26–35

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.9%  
70 2% 99.6%  
71 5% 98%  
72 13% 93%  
73 21% 80%  
74 29% 59% Median
75 14% 30%  
76 11% 16%  
77 3% 5%  
78 0.5% 2%  
79 0.7% 1.1% Last Result
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.9% 99.7%  
57 2% 98.8%  
58 11% 96%  
59 15% 85%  
60 17% 70% Median
61 29% 54%  
62 14% 25%  
63 5% 11%  
64 5% 6%  
65 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
66 0.2% 0.2%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.7% 100% Majority
52 1.5% 99.3%  
53 4% 98%  
54 7% 94%  
55 20% 87%  
56 8% 67%  
57 40% 59% Median
58 11% 19%  
59 5% 8%  
60 1.1% 2% Last Result
61 0.9% 1.1%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.5% 99.9%  
51 1.0% 99.4% Majority
52 6% 98%  
53 14% 93% Last Result
54 16% 79%  
55 29% 63% Median
56 13% 34%  
57 12% 21%  
58 6% 9%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.5% 0.8%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 1.1% 99.6% Majority
52 2% 98.5%  
53 11% 96%  
54 14% 85%  
55 21% 71%  
56 20% 51% Last Result, Median
57 15% 31%  
58 11% 16%  
59 4% 5%  
60 0.8% 1.0%  
61 0.2% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100% Last Result
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 2% 99.6%  
47 5% 98%  
48 11% 93%  
49 20% 82%  
50 21% 61%  
51 19% 40% Median, Majority
52 14% 21%  
53 5% 8%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.5% 0.8%  
56 0.2% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.9%  
38 0.7% 99.5%  
39 1.3% 98.8%  
40 5% 97%  
41 11% 92%  
42 15% 81%  
43 33% 66% Median
44 16% 34%  
45 11% 18%  
46 4% 7% Last Result
47 2% 3%  
48 0.3% 0.4%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 0.7% 99.6%  
38 2% 98.9%  
39 6% 97%  
40 12% 91%  
41 22% 79% Median
42 21% 57%  
43 20% 35%  
44 9% 15%  
45 5% 6%  
46 1.0% 2%  
47 0.4% 0.5%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.8%  
32 0.7% 99.6%  
33 1.4% 98.9%  
34 8% 97%  
35 7% 89%  
36 25% 82%  
37 18% 57% Median
38 21% 39%  
39 13% 18%  
40 2% 5%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.3% 0.4%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.9% 99.9%  
33 3% 98.9%  
34 12% 96%  
35 13% 84%  
36 29% 71% Median
37 14% 42%  
38 18% 27%  
39 5% 9%  
40 3% 4%  
41 0.4% 0.6%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 0.3% 99.8%  
28 4% 99.5%  
29 9% 96%  
30 13% 87%  
31 31% 74%  
32 17% 43% Median
33 15% 27%  
34 9% 11%  
35 1.3% 2%  
36 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.5% 99.9%  
27 4% 99.4%  
28 8% 96%  
29 35% 88% Last Result
30 11% 52% Median
31 22% 41%  
32 13% 19%  
33 4% 6%  
34 2% 2%  
35 0.6% 0.7%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations