Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 15–21 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 36.4% 34.5–38.4% 33.9–38.9% 33.5–39.4% 32.6–40.4%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 23.5% 21.8–25.3% 21.4–25.8% 21.0–26.2% 20.2–27.1%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 15.6% 14.2–17.2% 13.8–17.6% 13.5–18.0% 12.8–18.8%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.4% 6.4–8.6% 6.2–8.9% 5.9–9.2% 5.5–9.8%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.6% 5.7–7.7% 5.4–8.0% 5.2–8.3% 4.8–8.9%
Eesti 200 4.4% 4.5% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.7% 3.4–6.0% 3.0–6.5%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.6–4.3%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 44 41–46 39–46 39–47 37–49
Eesti Keskerakond 26 26 24–29 23–29 23–30 22–31
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 17 16–18 15–19 14–19 13–20
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 6–8 5–9 5–9 5–9
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–8 5–8 5–8 0–9
Eesti 200 0 0 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 1.0% 99.9%  
38 0.6% 99.0%  
39 5% 98%  
40 3% 94%  
41 5% 90%  
42 9% 85%  
43 21% 76%  
44 38% 55% Median
45 7% 17%  
46 7% 11%  
47 2% 4%  
48 1.5% 2%  
49 0.5% 0.7%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0.6% 99.9%  
23 5% 99.4%  
24 5% 94%  
25 11% 89%  
26 40% 79% Last Result, Median
27 17% 39%  
28 11% 22%  
29 6% 10%  
30 3% 4%  
31 0.6% 0.8%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.4% 99.9%  
14 3% 99.5%  
15 4% 96%  
16 14% 92%  
17 44% 78% Median
18 26% 34%  
19 6% 8% Last Result
20 1.4% 2%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0.1% 99.9%  
5 7% 99.9%  
6 24% 93%  
7 42% 69% Median
8 19% 27%  
9 7% 8%  
10 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100%  
1 0% 99.4%  
2 0% 99.4%  
3 0% 99.4%  
4 0.5% 99.4%  
5 14% 98.9%  
6 44% 85% Median
7 31% 41%  
8 9% 10%  
9 0.8% 0.8%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 82% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 18%  
2 0% 18%  
3 0% 18%  
4 5% 18%  
5 13% 14%  
6 0.7% 0.7%  
7 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 87 100% 83–89 83–90 82–90 81–92
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 70 100% 66–72 65–73 65–74 64–75
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 67 100% 64–68 62–69 62–70 61–71
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 61 100% 57–63 57–64 56–64 55–66
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 57 99.8% 54–59 53–60 52–60 51–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 57 99.8% 54–59 53–60 52–60 51–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 51 51% 48–53 46–53 46–54 45–55
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 50 36% 47–52 46–53 45–54 44–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 50 38% 47–51 46–52 45–53 44–55
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 43 0.1% 41–46 40–46 40–47 38–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 40 0% 37–42 36–43 36–44 34–45
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 33 0% 31–36 30–36 30–38 29–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 24 0% 22–26 22–27 21–28 20–28

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100% Last Result
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.9% 99.8%  
82 3% 98.9%  
83 8% 96%  
84 4% 88%  
85 5% 84%  
86 10% 79%  
87 35% 69% Median
88 10% 34%  
89 19% 24%  
90 4% 5%  
91 0.3% 0.9%  
92 0.2% 0.6%  
93 0.1% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.2% 0.2%  
96 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100% Last Result
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0.2% 100%  
64 1.5% 99.8%  
65 3% 98%  
66 6% 95%  
67 4% 89%  
68 9% 85%  
69 6% 76%  
70 37% 70% Median
71 20% 34%  
72 8% 14%  
73 3% 6%  
74 2% 3%  
75 0.4% 0.8%  
76 0.2% 0.4%  
77 0% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 0.9% 99.6%  
62 4% 98.7%  
63 2% 95%  
64 5% 93%  
65 12% 88% Last Result
66 9% 76%  
67 23% 67% Median
68 34% 44%  
69 6% 10%  
70 3% 4%  
71 0.6% 0.9%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
54 0.3% 99.9%  
55 2% 99.6%  
56 1.4% 98%  
57 8% 96%  
58 3% 88%  
59 12% 85%  
60 9% 73%  
61 42% 63% Median
62 12% 22%  
63 4% 10%  
64 5% 6%  
65 0.6% 1.3%  
66 0.6% 0.7%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 1.2% 99.8% Majority
52 2% 98.7%  
53 5% 97%  
54 5% 92%  
55 14% 87%  
56 19% 73% Last Result
57 9% 54% Median
58 34% 45%  
59 4% 10%  
60 4% 6%  
61 2% 2%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 1.2% 99.8% Majority
52 2% 98.7%  
53 5% 97%  
54 5% 92%  
55 14% 87%  
56 19% 73% Last Result
57 9% 54% Median
58 34% 45%  
59 4% 10%  
60 4% 6%  
61 2% 2%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
45 1.4% 99.8%  
46 4% 98%  
47 4% 94%  
48 7% 90%  
49 13% 83%  
50 18% 69%  
51 25% 51% Median, Majority
52 17% 27%  
53 5% 10%  
54 3% 5%  
55 2% 2%  
56 0.3% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.6% 99.7%  
45 2% 99.2%  
46 6% 97%  
47 7% 91%  
48 6% 84%  
49 18% 78% Median
50 24% 60%  
51 17% 36% Majority
52 10% 19%  
53 6% 10%  
54 2% 4%  
55 0.9% 1.1%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 2% 99.8%  
45 2% 98%  
46 6% 96% Last Result
47 6% 91%  
48 6% 85%  
49 14% 78%  
50 26% 64% Median
51 28% 38% Majority
52 5% 10%  
53 2% 5%  
54 2% 2%  
55 0.4% 0.6%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.9% 99.8%  
39 1.2% 98.9%  
40 7% 98%  
41 6% 91%  
42 7% 85%  
43 35% 78% Median
44 11% 43%  
45 15% 32% Last Result
46 12% 16%  
47 2% 4%  
48 1.1% 2%  
49 0.8% 1.0%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.8%  
35 0.9% 99.3%  
36 6% 98%  
37 8% 92%  
38 6% 84%  
39 13% 79% Median
40 45% 66%  
41 4% 21%  
42 11% 17%  
43 1.0% 6%  
44 4% 5%  
45 0.5% 0.7%  
46 0.2% 0.2%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.8% 99.8%  
30 5% 99.0%  
31 9% 94%  
32 6% 85%  
33 39% 79% Median
34 23% 40%  
35 6% 17%  
36 7% 11% Last Result
37 1.3% 4%  
38 0.7% 3%  
39 2% 2%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100%  
19 0.3% 99.9%  
20 2% 99.7%  
21 2% 98%  
22 7% 96%  
23 16% 89%  
24 43% 73% Median
25 18% 30%  
26 5% 12%  
27 3% 7%  
28 3% 3%  
29 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
30 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations