Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 22–28 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 36.2% 34.3–38.2% 33.7–38.7% 33.3–39.2% 32.4–40.2%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 23.5% 21.8–25.3% 21.4–25.8% 21.0–26.2% 20.2–27.1%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 17.8% 16.3–19.4% 15.9–19.9% 15.5–20.3% 14.9–21.1%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 6.3% 5.4–7.4% 5.2–7.7% 5.0–8.0% 4.6–8.5%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.5% 4.7–6.5% 4.4–6.8% 4.3–7.1% 3.9–7.6%
Eesti 200 4.4% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.6–7.2%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.2–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.6%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 42 41–42 41–43 41–43 39–43
Eesti Keskerakond 26 26 26–29 26–32 26–32 25–32
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 18 17–20 17–20 17–20 17–23
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 6–7 0–7 0–9 0–9
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 0–6 0–7 0–7 0–7
Eesti 200 0 4 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 0% 99.6%  
39 2% 99.6%  
40 0% 98%  
41 43% 98%  
42 49% 55% Median
43 6% 6%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.8% 100%  
26 79% 99.2% Last Result, Median
27 0.5% 21%  
28 0% 20%  
29 14% 20%  
30 0.1% 6%  
31 1.2% 6%  
32 5% 5%  
33 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 14% 99.9%  
18 42% 86% Median
19 7% 44% Last Result
20 36% 37%  
21 0.1% 0.9%  
22 0% 0.8%  
23 0.3% 0.8%  
24 0% 0.5%  
25 0.5% 0.5%  
26 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 0% 95%  
2 0% 95%  
3 0% 95%  
4 0% 95%  
5 0.8% 95%  
6 43% 94%  
7 49% 52% Median
8 0.4% 3%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 15% 100%  
1 0% 85%  
2 0% 85%  
3 0% 85%  
4 0.5% 85%  
5 0.4% 85%  
6 78% 84% Median
7 6% 6%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 44% 100% Last Result
1 0% 56%  
2 0% 56%  
3 0% 56%  
4 41% 56% Median
5 0.4% 15%  
6 14% 15%  
7 1.1% 1.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 88 100% 85–88 85–94 85–94 84–94
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 68 100% 67–71 67–75 67–75 64–75
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 65 100% 59–68 59–69 59–69 59–69
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 59 100% 59–62 59–62 59–62 57–65
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 50 44% 46–52 46–58 46–58 46–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 53 79% 49–55 49–55 49–56 48–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 53 79% 49–55 49–55 49–56 48–56
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 46 6% 44–46 44–51 44–51 44–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 49 0.1% 47–49 43–49 43–50 43–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 47 0% 42–48 42–49 42–50 42–50
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 38 0% 36–39 36–39 36–41 34–44
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 33 0% 32–36 32–36 32–36 31–37
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 24 0% 24–27 20–27 19–28 19–28

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100% Last Result
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0.3% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.7%  
84 0.5% 99.6%  
85 41% 99.1%  
86 2% 58% Median
87 0% 56%  
88 49% 56%  
89 0.6% 7%  
90 0% 6%  
91 0.3% 6%  
92 0% 6%  
93 0% 6%  
94 5% 6%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100% Last Result
61 0% 100%  
62 0.4% 100%  
63 0% 99.6%  
64 0.5% 99.6%  
65 0% 99.1%  
66 0% 99.1%  
67 43% 99.1%  
68 35% 56% Median
69 0.5% 21%  
70 1.0% 20%  
71 13% 19%  
72 0.5% 6%  
73 0.1% 5%  
74 0% 5%  
75 5% 5%  
76 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 13% 100%  
60 0.6% 87%  
61 0% 86%  
62 0.3% 86%  
63 0.6% 86%  
64 1.2% 85%  
65 41% 84% Last Result
66 2% 43% Median
67 0.5% 40%  
68 35% 40%  
69 5% 5%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 1.4% 100%  
58 0.1% 98.6%  
59 55% 98.5%  
60 3% 44% Median
61 0% 41%  
62 40% 41%  
63 0.1% 1.0%  
64 0.1% 0.9%  
65 0.3% 0.8%  
66 0% 0.5%  
67 0.5% 0.5%  
68 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 14% 100%  
47 0% 86%  
48 0.1% 86%  
49 0.8% 86%  
50 41% 85% Median
51 3% 44% Majority
52 35% 42%  
53 0% 6%  
54 0% 6%  
55 0.1% 6%  
56 1.0% 6%  
57 0% 5% Last Result
58 5% 5%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.3% 100%  
48 0.6% 99.7%  
49 14% 99.1%  
50 5% 85%  
51 0% 79% Majority
52 1.1% 79%  
53 41% 78%  
54 0% 38%  
55 35% 37% Median
56 3% 3% Last Result
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.3% 100%  
48 0.6% 99.7%  
49 14% 99.1%  
50 5% 85%  
51 0% 79% Majority
52 1.1% 79%  
53 41% 78%  
54 0% 38%  
55 35% 37% Median
56 3% 3% Last Result
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 41% 100% Median
45 3% 59% Last Result
46 49% 56%  
47 0.1% 7%  
48 0.1% 7%  
49 1.3% 7%  
50 0% 6%  
51 5% 6% Majority
52 0.5% 0.5%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0% 99.9%  
43 5% 99.9%  
44 0% 95% Last Result
45 2% 95%  
46 0% 93%  
47 41% 93%  
48 0.6% 52%  
49 49% 51% Median
50 3% 3%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 14% 100%  
43 1.0% 86%  
44 0.1% 85%  
45 0% 84%  
46 1.0% 84% Last Result
47 43% 83%  
48 35% 40% Median
49 0% 5%  
50 5% 5%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.3% 100%  
32 0% 99.7%  
33 0% 99.7%  
34 1.0% 99.7%  
35 0.5% 98.7%  
36 13% 98%  
37 0.1% 85%  
38 41% 85%  
39 40% 44% Median
40 0% 4%  
41 3% 4%  
42 0% 1.1%  
43 0.1% 1.1%  
44 1.0% 1.0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.9% 100%  
32 46% 99.1%  
33 35% 53% Median
34 1.0% 18%  
35 2% 17%  
36 13% 14% Last Result
37 1.1% 1.2%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 5% 100%  
20 0% 95%  
21 0% 95%  
22 0.5% 95%  
23 0.1% 94%  
24 55% 94%  
25 0% 39% Median
26 0.6% 39%  
27 35% 39%  
28 3% 4%  
29 0% 0.5% Last Result
30 0% 0.5%  
31 0% 0.5%  
32 0.5% 0.5%  
33 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations