Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 28 October–5 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 36.3% 34.4–38.3% 33.8–38.9% 33.4–39.3% 32.5–40.3%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 23.0% 21.4–24.8% 20.9–25.3% 20.5–25.7% 19.7–26.6%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 15.8% 14.4–17.4% 14.0–17.8% 13.7–18.2% 13.0–19.0%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.2% 7.2–9.4% 6.9–9.8% 6.6–10.1% 6.2–10.7%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.8% 5.0–6.9% 4.7–7.2% 4.5–7.4% 4.1–8.0%
Eesti 200 4.4% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.0–4.9%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 41 41–43 41–43 41–45 36–45
Eesti Keskerakond 26 23 23–26 23–28 23–32 23–32
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 17 17 16–17 14–17 14–18
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 9 8–9 8–9 7–9
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 6 0–6 0–6 0–6
Eesti 200 0 5 0–5 0–5 0–7 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0.2% 100%  
36 0.9% 99.8%  
37 0% 98.9%  
38 0% 98.9%  
39 0% 98.9%  
40 0.2% 98.9%  
41 71% 98.7% Median
42 4% 27%  
43 19% 23%  
44 0% 4%  
45 4% 4%  
46 0% 0.4%  
47 0.4% 0.4%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 71% 99.8% Median
24 3% 28%  
25 0.2% 26%  
26 19% 26% Last Result
27 0.4% 7%  
28 2% 6%  
29 0.2% 5%  
30 0.7% 4%  
31 0% 4%  
32 4% 4%  
33 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 0.1% 99.7%  
14 3% 99.6%  
15 0.1% 97%  
16 5% 97%  
17 90% 92% Median
18 1.1% 1.5%  
19 0% 0.3% Last Result
20 0.3% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0.1% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 0.9% 99.8%  
8 7% 98.8%  
9 92% 92% Median
10 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
11 0.1% 0.3%  
12 0% 0.2%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 0% 95%  
2 0% 95%  
3 0% 95%  
4 0% 95%  
5 0.9% 95%  
6 93% 94% Median
7 0.5% 0.5%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 23% 100% Last Result
1 0% 77%  
2 0% 77%  
3 0% 77%  
4 0.3% 77%  
5 72% 76% Median
6 2% 4%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 81 100% 81–86 81–86 80–93 80–93
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 64 100% 64–69 64–70 64–77 64–77
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 64 100% 64–66 61–66 61–66 58–66
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 58 100% 58–60 58–60 56–61 54–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 56 98.9% 56–58 53–58 51–58 48–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 56 98.9% 56–58 53–58 51–58 48–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 50 25% 50–52 50–52 50–53 43–53
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 46 1.3% 46–49 46–49 44–49 44–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 47 0.6% 47–49 45–49 42–49 41–51
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 40 0% 40–43 40–45 38–48 38–48
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 38 0% 38–41 38–41 38–41 37–42
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 32 0% 32–35 32–37 32–40 32–40
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 26 0% 26 24–26 22–26 20–26

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
80 3% 99.7%  
81 71% 97% Median
82 0% 26%  
83 0.3% 26%  
84 0.7% 26%  
85 0% 25%  
86 21% 25%  
87 0% 4%  
88 0% 4%  
89 0.1% 4%  
90 0.3% 4%  
91 0% 4%  
92 0% 4%  
93 4% 4%  
94 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100% Last Result
61 0% 100%  
62 0.2% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 71% 99.6% Median
65 0.3% 28%  
66 3% 28%  
67 0% 25%  
68 0% 25%  
69 19% 25%  
70 2% 6%  
71 0.1% 4%  
72 0% 4%  
73 0% 4%  
74 0.3% 4%  
75 0% 4%  
76 0% 4%  
77 4% 4%  
78 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 1.3% 100%  
59 0.9% 98.7%  
60 0.2% 98%  
61 4% 98%  
62 3% 94%  
63 0% 91%  
64 71% 91% Median
65 0% 20% Last Result
66 19% 20%  
67 0.1% 0.3%  
68 0% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.2%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.2% 100% Last Result
54 0.9% 99.8%  
55 0.1% 98.9%  
56 3% 98.8%  
57 0.2% 96%  
58 73% 96% Median
59 0.4% 23%  
60 19% 23%  
61 4% 4%  
62 0.1% 0.3%  
63 0% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.2%  
65 0.2% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.7% 100%  
49 0.4% 99.3%  
50 0% 98.9%  
51 2% 98.9% Majority
52 0% 97%  
53 4% 97%  
54 0% 94%  
55 0.1% 94%  
56 74% 93% Last Result, Median
57 0% 20%  
58 19% 20%  
59 0% 0.4%  
60 0% 0.4%  
61 0% 0.4%  
62 0.4% 0.4%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.7% 100%  
49 0.4% 99.3%  
50 0% 98.9%  
51 2% 98.9% Majority
52 0% 97%  
53 4% 97%  
54 0% 94%  
55 0.1% 94%  
56 74% 93% Last Result, Median
57 0% 20%  
58 19% 20%  
59 0% 0.4%  
60 0% 0.4%  
61 0% 0.4%  
62 0.4% 0.4%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 1.1% 100%  
44 0% 98.9% Last Result
45 0.2% 98.9%  
46 0% 98.7%  
47 0% 98.7%  
48 0% 98.7%  
49 0% 98.7%  
50 74% 98.6% Median
51 1.4% 25% Majority
52 19% 23%  
53 4% 4%  
54 0% 0.4%  
55 0.4% 0.4%  
56 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0% 99.9%  
44 4% 99.9%  
45 0% 96%  
46 72% 96% Median
47 0% 24%  
48 4% 24%  
49 19% 20%  
50 0% 1.3%  
51 0.2% 1.3% Majority
52 0.2% 1.2%  
53 0.9% 1.0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.9% 100%  
42 2% 99.1%  
43 0% 97%  
44 0% 97%  
45 4% 97%  
46 0% 94% Last Result
47 71% 94% Median
48 3% 22%  
49 19% 20%  
50 0% 0.6%  
51 0.2% 0.6% Majority
52 0.1% 0.4%  
53 0% 0.4%  
54 0.4% 0.4%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 2% 99.9%  
39 0.6% 97%  
40 71% 97% Median
41 0% 26%  
42 0% 26%  
43 19% 25%  
44 1.4% 6%  
45 0.2% 5% Last Result
46 0.2% 5%  
47 0.2% 5%  
48 4% 4%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0% 99.8%  
33 0% 99.8%  
34 0% 99.8%  
35 0% 99.8%  
36 0.1% 99.8%  
37 1.4% 99.7%  
38 74% 98% Median
39 0.1% 25%  
40 4% 24%  
41 19% 21%  
42 1.4% 1.5%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 0% 99.8%  
27 0% 99.8%  
28 0% 99.8%  
29 0.1% 99.8%  
30 0% 99.7%  
31 0.1% 99.7%  
32 74% 99.7% Median
33 0% 26%  
34 0% 26%  
35 20% 26%  
36 0.5% 6% Last Result
37 2% 6%  
38 0% 4%  
39 0.1% 4%  
40 4% 4%  
41 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.5% 100%  
21 0.1% 99.5%  
22 2% 99.4%  
23 0.1% 97%  
24 4% 97%  
25 2% 93%  
26 90% 91% Median
27 0% 0.4%  
28 0% 0.3%  
29 0% 0.3% Last Result
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations