Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 5–11 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 32.6% 30.7–34.6% 30.2–35.1% 29.8–35.6% 28.9–36.5%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 24.3% 22.6–26.1% 22.1–26.6% 21.7–27.1% 21.0–27.9%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 17.5% 16.0–19.1% 15.6–19.6% 15.3–20.0% 14.6–20.8%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 10.9% 9.7–12.3% 9.4–12.7% 9.1–13.0% 8.6–13.7%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.8%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%
Eesti 200 4.4% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.2–5.2%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 38 36–40 35–40 35–42 33–43
Eesti Keskerakond 26 27 26–29 25–30 24–30 23–31
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 19 17–21 16–21 16–22 16–23
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 11 10–12 10–12 9–13 8–14
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–7 4–8 4–8 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti 200 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.4% 99.8%  
34 1.0% 99.4% Last Result
35 5% 98%  
36 16% 94%  
37 27% 78%  
38 9% 51% Median
39 22% 42%  
40 16% 20%  
41 1.0% 4%  
42 2% 3%  
43 1.3% 1.4%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 1.1% 99.8%  
24 2% 98.8%  
25 5% 97%  
26 30% 92% Last Result
27 23% 62% Median
28 18% 39%  
29 12% 21%  
30 8% 9%  
31 0.7% 1.1%  
32 0.3% 0.4%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.3% 99.9%  
16 6% 99.6%  
17 9% 94%  
18 26% 85%  
19 33% 58% Last Result, Median
20 11% 26%  
21 12% 15%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.9% 0.9%  
24 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.7% 100%  
9 4% 99.3%  
10 26% 95% Last Result
11 31% 69% Median
12 35% 38%  
13 3% 3%  
14 0.6% 0.9%  
15 0.3% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.7% 100%  
1 0% 99.3%  
2 0% 99.3%  
3 0% 99.3%  
4 5% 99.3%  
5 26% 94%  
6 35% 68% Median
7 28% 34%  
8 5% 5%  
9 0.2% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.4%  
2 0% 0.4%  
3 0% 0.4%  
4 0.2% 0.4%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.5%  
2 0% 0.5%  
3 0% 0.5%  
4 0.3% 0.5%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 84 100% 82–86 82–87 81–87 79–89
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 65 100% 63–68 63–68 61–68 61–70
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 62 100% 61–65 60–66 60–66 58–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 57 100% 55–59 54–60 54–60 52–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 55 99.2% 53–57 52–58 51–59 50–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 55 99.2% 53–57 52–58 51–59 50–60
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 52 77% 50–54 49–55 48–56 47–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 49 22% 47–51 46–51 45–53 44–53
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 46 0.5% 44–48 43–49 42–50 41–51
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 44 0% 42–46 41–47 41–47 39–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 44 0% 42–46 41–47 40–47 39–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 39 0% 36–40 35–41 35–41 34–43
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 30 0% 28–31 27–32 27–33 26–34

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.8% Last Result
80 0.6% 99.5%  
81 4% 98.8%  
82 11% 95%  
83 28% 84%  
84 18% 56% Median
85 25% 38%  
86 7% 13%  
87 5% 6%  
88 0.4% 1.0%  
89 0.1% 0.5%  
90 0.2% 0.4%  
91 0.2% 0.2%  
92 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
61 2% 99.6%  
62 2% 97%  
63 10% 95%  
64 27% 85%  
65 18% 58% Median
66 21% 40%  
67 7% 19%  
68 11% 12%  
69 0.8% 1.4%  
70 0.3% 0.6%  
71 0.1% 0.4%  
72 0.2% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.1% 99.8%  
58 1.0% 99.7%  
59 1.1% 98.8%  
60 8% 98%  
61 16% 90%  
62 26% 74%  
63 12% 48% Median
64 18% 36%  
65 11% 17% Last Result
66 5% 6%  
67 1.5% 2%  
68 0.2% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100% Majority
52 0.7% 99.8%  
53 1.4% 99.1% Last Result
54 6% 98%  
55 29% 92%  
56 13% 63%  
57 8% 50% Median
58 22% 42%  
59 14% 20%  
60 5% 6%  
61 0.5% 1.2%  
62 0.5% 0.7%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.4% 99.6%  
51 3% 99.2% Majority
52 4% 97%  
53 13% 92%  
54 25% 79%  
55 11% 55% Median
56 25% 44% Last Result
57 11% 19%  
58 5% 8%  
59 1.5% 3%  
60 1.0% 1.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.4% 99.6%  
51 3% 99.2% Majority
52 4% 97%  
53 13% 92%  
54 25% 79%  
55 11% 55% Median
56 25% 44% Last Result
57 11% 19%  
58 5% 8%  
59 1.5% 3%  
60 1.0% 1.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.4% 99.7%  
48 3% 99.4%  
49 2% 96%  
50 18% 95%  
51 19% 77% Majority
52 18% 58% Median
53 19% 41%  
54 15% 22%  
55 4% 7%  
56 3% 3%  
57 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.2% 100%  
44 0.5% 99.8% Last Result
45 3% 99.3%  
46 4% 97%  
47 15% 93%  
48 19% 78%  
49 18% 59% Median
50 19% 41%  
51 18% 22% Majority
52 1.4% 5%  
53 3% 3%  
54 0.2% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 1.1% 99.9%  
42 2% 98.8%  
43 5% 97%  
44 11% 92%  
45 25% 80% Last Result
46 11% 55% Median
47 24% 45%  
48 13% 20%  
49 4% 8%  
50 3% 3%  
51 0.3% 0.5% Majority
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.8%  
40 0.6% 99.3%  
41 5% 98.7%  
42 14% 93%  
43 22% 80%  
44 8% 58% Median
45 13% 49%  
46 29% 36%  
47 6% 8%  
48 1.3% 2% Last Result
49 0.6% 0.7%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.3% 99.9%  
39 0.7% 99.6%  
40 2% 98.9%  
41 3% 97%  
42 20% 94%  
43 14% 75%  
44 20% 61% Median
45 27% 40%  
46 8% 14% Last Result
47 3% 5%  
48 0.5% 2%  
49 2% 2%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 2% 99.7%  
35 5% 98%  
36 11% 93% Last Result
37 19% 82%  
38 12% 63% Median
39 26% 51%  
40 16% 25%  
41 7% 9%  
42 0.9% 2%  
43 0.8% 1.0%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.9%  
26 0.4% 99.6%  
27 5% 99.3%  
28 8% 94%  
29 25% 87% Last Result
30 29% 62% Median
31 23% 33%  
32 6% 9%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.6% 0.9%  
35 0.3% 0.3%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations