Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS for ERR, 31 October–12 November 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Reformierakond | 28.9% | 30.9% | 29.1–32.8% | 28.6–33.3% | 28.2–33.8% | 27.3–34.8% |
| Eesti Keskerakond | 23.1% | 23.7% | 22.1–25.5% | 21.6–26.0% | 21.2–26.5% | 20.5–27.3% |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 17.8% | 17.6% | 16.1–19.2% | 15.7–19.6% | 15.3–20.0% | 14.7–20.8% |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 9.8% | 11.4% | 10.2–12.8% | 9.9–13.2% | 9.6–13.5% | 9.0–14.2% |
| Eesti 200 | 4.4% | 7.3% | 6.3–8.4% | 6.1–8.7% | 5.8–9.0% | 5.4–9.6% |
| Erakond Isamaa | 11.4% | 5.2% | 4.4–6.2% | 4.2–6.5% | 4.0–6.8% | 3.6–7.3% |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.4–3.1% | 1.2–3.5% |
| Eesti Vabaerakond | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–1.9% | 0.5–2.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Reformierakond | 34 | 35 | 32–38 | 32–39 | 31–39 | 31–40 |
| Eesti Keskerakond | 26 | 26 | 24–28 | 24–29 | 23–30 | 22–31 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 19 | 18 | 17–20 | 16–21 | 16–22 | 15–23 |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 10 | 11 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 | 9–15 |
| Eesti 200 | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| Erakond Isamaa | 12 | 4 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eesti Vabaerakond | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Eesti Reformierakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 32 | 8% | 97% | |
| 33 | 7% | 89% | |
| 34 | 17% | 82% | Last Result |
| 35 | 21% | 65% | Median |
| 36 | 21% | 45% | |
| 37 | 11% | 24% | |
| 38 | 7% | 12% | |
| 39 | 4% | 6% | |
| 40 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 22 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 23 | 3% | 98.5% | |
| 24 | 12% | 96% | |
| 25 | 19% | 84% | |
| 26 | 24% | 64% | Last Result, Median |
| 27 | 22% | 40% | |
| 28 | 9% | 18% | |
| 29 | 5% | 9% | |
| 30 | 3% | 4% | |
| 31 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 16 | 7% | 98.7% | |
| 17 | 12% | 92% | |
| 18 | 30% | 79% | Median |
| 19 | 22% | 49% | Last Result |
| 20 | 18% | 27% | |
| 21 | 6% | 9% | |
| 22 | 3% | 4% | |
| 23 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 9 | 5% | 99.6% | |
| 10 | 19% | 95% | Last Result |
| 11 | 31% | 76% | Median |
| 12 | 27% | 45% | |
| 13 | 13% | 17% | |
| 14 | 4% | 4% | |
| 15 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti 200
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 8% | 99.7% | |
| 6 | 33% | 91% | |
| 7 | 37% | 59% | Median |
| 8 | 18% | 22% | |
| 9 | 3% | 4% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Erakond Isamaa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 41% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 59% | |
| 2 | 0% | 59% | |
| 3 | 0% | 59% | |
| 4 | 10% | 59% | Median |
| 5 | 42% | 49% | |
| 6 | 6% | 7% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Eesti Vabaerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 79 | 80 | 100% | 77–83 | 76–84 | 76–84 | 75–85 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond | 60 | 61 | 100% | 58–64 | 58–65 | 57–66 | 56–67 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa | 65 | 57 | 99.8% | 54–59 | 53–60 | 52–61 | 51–62 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 53 | 54 | 92% | 51–57 | 50–58 | 50–58 | 48–60 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond | 56 | 50 | 32% | 47–52 | 46–53 | 45–54 | 44–55 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa | 56 | 50 | 32% | 47–52 | 46–53 | 45–54 | 44–55 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa | 57 | 48 | 11% | 45–51 | 44–51 | 43–52 | 42–53 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 44 | 47 | 4% | 44–49 | 43–50 | 42–51 | 41–52 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 45 | 45 | 0.5% | 42–47 | 41–48 | 41–49 | 39–51 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa | 48 | 40 | 0% | 37–43 | 37–44 | 36–45 | 35–46 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa | 46 | 38 | 0% | 35–41 | 34–42 | 34–43 | 32–44 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 36 | 38 | 0% | 35–40 | 34–41 | 34–42 | 33–43 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 29 | 30 | 0% | 28–32 | 27–33 | 26–34 | 25–35 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 74 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 75 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 76 | 4% | 98.5% | |
| 77 | 13% | 94% | |
| 78 | 12% | 81% | |
| 79 | 17% | 69% | Last Result, Median |
| 80 | 10% | 53% | |
| 81 | 13% | 42% | |
| 82 | 13% | 29% | |
| 83 | 8% | 16% | |
| 84 | 6% | 8% | |
| 85 | 2% | 2% | |
| 86 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 57 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 58 | 8% | 96% | |
| 59 | 12% | 88% | |
| 60 | 12% | 76% | Last Result |
| 61 | 18% | 64% | Median |
| 62 | 14% | 47% | |
| 63 | 16% | 33% | |
| 64 | 7% | 17% | |
| 65 | 5% | 10% | |
| 66 | 3% | 4% | |
| 67 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 68 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.6% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 52 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 53 | 3% | 97% | |
| 54 | 9% | 94% | |
| 55 | 16% | 85% | |
| 56 | 11% | 69% | |
| 57 | 20% | 59% | Median |
| 58 | 19% | 38% | |
| 59 | 11% | 20% | |
| 60 | 5% | 8% | |
| 61 | 3% | 3% | |
| 62 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 50 | 5% | 98% | |
| 51 | 6% | 92% | Majority |
| 52 | 16% | 86% | |
| 53 | 16% | 70% | Last Result, Median |
| 54 | 17% | 55% | |
| 55 | 16% | 37% | |
| 56 | 8% | 22% | |
| 57 | 8% | 13% | |
| 58 | 4% | 5% | |
| 59 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 60 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 45 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 46 | 5% | 96% | |
| 47 | 11% | 91% | |
| 48 | 12% | 80% | |
| 49 | 18% | 68% | |
| 50 | 18% | 50% | Median |
| 51 | 10% | 32% | Majority |
| 52 | 14% | 22% | |
| 53 | 5% | 8% | |
| 54 | 2% | 3% | |
| 55 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 45 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 46 | 5% | 96% | |
| 47 | 11% | 91% | |
| 48 | 12% | 80% | |
| 49 | 18% | 68% | |
| 50 | 18% | 50% | Median |
| 51 | 10% | 32% | Majority |
| 52 | 14% | 22% | |
| 53 | 5% | 8% | |
| 54 | 2% | 3% | |
| 55 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 43 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 44 | 6% | 96% | |
| 45 | 9% | 90% | |
| 46 | 13% | 82% | |
| 47 | 18% | 69% | |
| 48 | 13% | 51% | Median |
| 49 | 13% | 38% | |
| 50 | 13% | 25% | |
| 51 | 7% | 11% | Majority |
| 52 | 3% | 4% | |
| 53 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 42 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 43 | 5% | 97% | |
| 44 | 10% | 92% | Last Result |
| 45 | 16% | 82% | |
| 46 | 12% | 66% | Median |
| 47 | 21% | 54% | |
| 48 | 13% | 33% | |
| 49 | 10% | 20% | |
| 50 | 5% | 9% | |
| 51 | 3% | 4% | Majority |
| 52 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 41 | 3% | 98% | |
| 42 | 11% | 95% | |
| 43 | 12% | 84% | |
| 44 | 16% | 71% | Median |
| 45 | 20% | 55% | Last Result |
| 46 | 16% | 36% | |
| 47 | 11% | 20% | |
| 48 | 5% | 9% | |
| 49 | 3% | 4% | |
| 50 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 0.5% | Majority |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 36 | 3% | 98% | |
| 37 | 7% | 96% | |
| 38 | 11% | 89% | |
| 39 | 12% | 78% | |
| 40 | 16% | 65% | |
| 41 | 15% | 49% | Median |
| 42 | 12% | 34% | |
| 43 | 14% | 22% | |
| 44 | 3% | 8% | |
| 45 | 4% | 5% | |
| 46 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 1.3% | 99.1% | |
| 34 | 4% | 98% | |
| 35 | 8% | 94% | |
| 36 | 13% | 86% | |
| 37 | 14% | 73% | |
| 38 | 11% | 60% | |
| 39 | 19% | 49% | Median |
| 40 | 14% | 30% | |
| 41 | 9% | 16% | |
| 42 | 4% | 6% | |
| 43 | 2% | 3% | |
| 44 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 1.2% | 99.6% | |
| 34 | 4% | 98% | |
| 35 | 10% | 95% | |
| 36 | 17% | 85% | Last Result |
| 37 | 17% | 68% | Median |
| 38 | 22% | 50% | |
| 39 | 12% | 28% | |
| 40 | 10% | 17% | |
| 41 | 4% | 7% | |
| 42 | 2% | 3% | |
| 43 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 27 | 6% | 97% | |
| 28 | 11% | 91% | |
| 29 | 20% | 80% | Last Result, Median |
| 30 | 24% | 60% | |
| 31 | 18% | 37% | |
| 32 | 11% | 19% | |
| 33 | 4% | 8% | |
| 34 | 2% | 3% | |
| 35 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Turu-uuringute AS
- Commissioner(s): ERR
- Fieldwork period: 31 October–12 November 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1019
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.54%