Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 7–13 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 27.4% 25.9–29.0% 25.5–29.4% 25.2–29.8% 24.5–30.6%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 18.3% 17.1–19.7% 16.7–20.1% 16.4–20.5% 15.8–21.1%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 16.1% 14.9–17.4% 14.5–17.8% 14.2–18.1% 13.7–18.7%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 16.1% 14.9–17.4% 14.5–17.8% 14.2–18.1% 13.7–18.7%
Eesti 200 4.4% 9.4% 8.4–10.5% 8.2–10.8% 8.0–11.0% 7.5–11.6%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.1% 5.4–7.0% 5.2–7.3% 5.0–7.5% 4.6–7.9%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.2–5.0% 3.1–5.1% 2.8–5.5%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 31 29–34 29–34 29–35 28–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 20 18–22 18–22 18–23 17–24
Eesti Keskerakond 26 17 16–19 15–19 15–20 14–21
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 17 16–19 15–19 15–20 14–21
Eesti 200 0 9 8–11 8–11 8–11 7–12
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–7 4–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–5
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.3% 100%  
28 2% 99.6%  
29 10% 98%  
30 12% 88%  
31 28% 76% Median
32 18% 48%  
33 19% 29%  
34 7% 11% Last Result
35 2% 3%  
36 0.7% 0.8%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 2% 99.8%  
18 9% 98%  
19 20% 88% Last Result
20 30% 68% Median
21 23% 38%  
22 11% 15%  
23 3% 4%  
24 0.5% 0.6%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 1.0% 100%  
15 6% 99.0%  
16 21% 93%  
17 34% 73% Median
18 25% 39%  
19 11% 14%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0.5% 0.5%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.7% 99.9%  
15 8% 99.2%  
16 19% 92%  
17 33% 72% Median
18 24% 40%  
19 13% 16%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0.5% 0.6%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 2% 100%  
8 18% 98%  
9 38% 80% Median
10 32% 42%  
11 9% 10%  
12 0.9% 1.0%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0% 96%  
4 1.4% 96%  
5 40% 95%  
6 44% 55% Median
7 10% 10%  
8 0.6% 0.7%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 4%  
2 0% 4%  
3 0% 4%  
4 2% 4%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 69 100% 67–71 66–72 65–73 64–74
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 57 99.9% 55–59 54–60 53–60 52–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 54 98% 52–57 51–57 51–58 49–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 54 98% 52–57 51–57 51–58 49–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 52 77% 49–54 49–55 48–55 47–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 49 16% 47–51 46–52 45–52 44–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 49 16% 46–51 46–52 45–52 44–54
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 43 0% 41–45 40–45 39–46 38–47
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 40 0% 38–42 37–43 36–43 34–44
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 37 0% 35–39 35–40 34–41 33–42
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 37 0% 35–40 35–40 34–40 33–42
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 37 0% 35–39 34–40 33–40 31–41
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 34 0% 32–36 32–37 31–38 30–39

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.2% 100%  
64 0.5% 99.8%  
65 2% 99.3%  
66 6% 97%  
67 11% 91%  
68 23% 80% Median
69 24% 57%  
70 17% 34%  
71 10% 17%  
72 3% 7%  
73 2% 3%  
74 0.6% 1.0%  
75 0.3% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9% Majority
52 0.8% 99.8%  
53 2% 99.0%  
54 5% 97%  
55 10% 92%  
56 18% 82%  
57 24% 64% Median
58 17% 41%  
59 16% 23%  
60 5% 7%  
61 2% 2%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.4% 99.9%  
50 2% 99.4%  
51 4% 98% Majority
52 12% 94%  
53 13% 82%  
54 27% 69% Median
55 21% 42%  
56 11% 21% Last Result
57 8% 11%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.5% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.4% 99.9%  
50 2% 99.4%  
51 4% 98% Majority
52 12% 94%  
53 13% 82%  
54 27% 69% Median
55 21% 42%  
56 11% 21% Last Result
57 8% 11%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.5% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.7% 99.8%  
48 3% 99.1%  
49 7% 96%  
50 12% 89%  
51 26% 77% Median, Majority
52 18% 51%  
53 19% 33% Last Result
54 8% 13%  
55 4% 5%  
56 1.2% 2%  
57 0.4% 0.6%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.6% 99.9%  
45 2% 99.3%  
46 6% 97%  
47 16% 91%  
48 23% 75% Median
49 19% 52%  
50 17% 34%  
51 9% 16% Majority
52 5% 7%  
53 2% 2%  
54 0.3% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.5% 99.9% Last Result
45 2% 99.4%  
46 8% 97%  
47 13% 90%  
48 19% 76% Median
49 26% 57%  
50 15% 31%  
51 9% 16% Majority
52 5% 7%  
53 1.2% 2%  
54 0.3% 0.5%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.9%  
38 0.8% 99.5%  
39 3% 98.7%  
40 5% 96%  
41 12% 90%  
42 23% 79%  
43 21% 56% Median
44 18% 35%  
45 12% 17%  
46 3% 5%  
47 1.3% 1.4%  
48 0.2% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 0.9% 99.5%  
36 2% 98.6%  
37 5% 97%  
38 12% 92%  
39 19% 80%  
40 27% 61% Median
41 18% 34%  
42 10% 17%  
43 5% 6%  
44 1.2% 1.5%  
45 0.3% 0.3%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.8% 99.9%  
34 3% 99.1%  
35 9% 96%  
36 18% 87%  
37 24% 69% Median
38 22% 45%  
39 14% 23%  
40 6% 9%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.7% 0.8%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100% Last Result
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.7% 99.8%  
34 4% 99.1%  
35 10% 95%  
36 16% 86%  
37 25% 70% Median
38 22% 45%  
39 12% 24%  
40 9% 11%  
41 2% 2%  
42 0.5% 0.6%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.4% 99.8%  
32 0.6% 99.4%  
33 2% 98.8%  
34 7% 97%  
35 9% 90%  
36 20% 82%  
37 20% 61% Median
38 23% 41%  
39 12% 19%  
40 5% 7%  
41 2% 2%  
42 0.3% 0.3%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.6% 99.9%  
31 2% 99.4%  
32 7% 97%  
33 18% 90%  
34 27% 72% Median
35 19% 45%  
36 17% 26% Last Result
37 6% 10%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.8% 0.9%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations