Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 11–15 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 35.3% 33.4–37.3% 32.9–37.8% 32.4–38.3% 31.5–39.3%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 26.0% 24.3–27.8% 23.8–28.4% 23.4–28.8% 22.6–29.7%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 12.6% 11.3–14.0% 11.0–14.4% 10.7–14.8% 10.1–15.5%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.5% 8.4–10.8% 8.1–11.2% 7.8–11.5% 7.3–12.1%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
Eesti 200 4.4% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.6%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.1%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.1% 0.0–0.4% 0.0–0.5% 0.0–0.6% 0.0–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 42 42 42 42–43 41–45
Eesti Keskerakond 26 30 30 30 29–30 27–30
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 14 14 14 14 11–15
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 10 10 10 8–10 7–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 5 5 5–7 5–8
Eesti 200 0 0 0 0 0 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0.2% 100%  
41 0.7% 99.8%  
42 96% 99.1% Median
43 2% 3%  
44 0% 1.1%  
45 1.0% 1.1%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
27 0.6% 99.8%  
28 2% 99.2%  
29 2% 98%  
30 96% 96% Median
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.6% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.3%  
13 0.6% 99.3%  
14 98% 98.7% Median
15 1.2% 1.2%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 2% 100%  
8 1.0% 98%  
9 0.7% 97%  
10 96% 96% Last Result, Median
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 97% 100% Median
6 0.7% 3%  
7 0.6% 3%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.6%  
2 0% 0.6%  
3 0% 0.6%  
4 0% 0.6%  
5 0% 0.6%  
6 0.6% 0.6%  
7 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 86 100% 86 86 86 80–88
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 72 100% 72 72 72 69–73
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 61 100% 61 61 61–65 59–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 57 100% 57 57 57–58 55–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 57 100% 57 57 57–58 55–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 56 100% 56 56 56–57 53–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 52 98% 52 52 51–52 48–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 47 2% 47 47 47–50 47–51
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 49 2% 49 49 49 44–51
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 45 0% 45 45 44–45 41–45
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 44 0% 44 44 43–44 38–44
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 40 0% 40 40 36–40 35–40
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 24 0% 24 24 21–24 20–24

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100% Last Result
80 0.6% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.4%  
82 0.6% 99.3%  
83 0.1% 98.7%  
84 0% 98.7%  
85 0.2% 98.7%  
86 97% 98.5% Median
87 0.1% 1.1%  
88 0.9% 1.0%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100% Last Result
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 1.2% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 98.7%  
71 0.3% 98.7%  
72 97% 98% Median
73 1.0% 1.0%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.7% 100%  
60 0% 99.3%  
61 96% 99.3% Median
62 0% 3%  
63 0.1% 3%  
64 0% 3%  
65 3% 3% Last Result
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.6% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.3% Last Result
57 96% 99.1% Median
58 3% 3%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.2%  
61 0% 0.2%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.6% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.3% Last Result
57 96% 99.1% Median
58 3% 3%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.2%  
61 0% 0.2%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.6% 100% Last Result
54 0.7% 99.4%  
55 0.2% 98.7%  
56 96% 98.5% Median
57 2% 3%  
58 0% 1.0%  
59 0% 1.0%  
60 0.9% 1.0%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100% Last Result
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0.7% 100%  
49 0% 99.3%  
50 2% 99.3%  
51 0.9% 98% Majority
52 96% 97% Median
53 0.9% 1.1%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.2% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
47 96% 99.7% Median
48 1.1% 4%  
49 0% 3%  
50 0.9% 3%  
51 2% 2% Majority
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.6% 99.9%  
45 0% 99.3%  
46 0% 99.3%  
47 0.1% 99.3%  
48 2% 99.2%  
49 96% 98% Median
50 0.3% 2%  
51 2% 2% Majority
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0% 99.9%  
41 0.9% 99.9%  
42 1.2% 99.0%  
43 0% 98%  
44 2% 98%  
45 96% 96% Median
46 0.1% 0.3%  
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0.6% 99.9%  
39 0.1% 99.3%  
40 0% 99.3%  
41 0.6% 99.3%  
42 0.1% 98.7%  
43 3% 98.6%  
44 96% 96% Median
45 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.7% 99.9%  
36 3% 99.2% Last Result
37 0% 96%  
38 0% 96%  
39 0% 96%  
40 96% 96% Median
41 0% 0.2%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 1.2% 99.9%  
21 2% 98.8%  
22 0.1% 97%  
23 1.0% 97%  
24 96% 96% Median
25 0.3% 0.3%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations