Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 18–25 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 36.1% 34.2–38.1% 33.6–38.6% 33.2–39.1% 32.3–40.1%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 24.0% 22.3–25.8% 21.9–26.3% 21.4–26.7% 20.7–27.6%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 12.2% 11.0–13.6% 10.6–14.0% 10.3–14.4% 9.7–15.1%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.8% 8.7–11.1% 8.4–11.5% 8.1–11.8% 7.6–12.5%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.3% 5.4–8.5% 5.0–9.1%
Eesti 200 4.4% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 43 40–45 39–46 39–47 38–49
Eesti Keskerakond 26 26 24–29 24–30 24–31 23–32
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 12 11–14 11–15 10–15 10–16
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 10 8–11 8–12 8–12 7–13
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–8 5–8 5–8 4–9
Eesti 200 0 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0–5
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.9%  
38 2% 99.5%  
39 4% 98%  
40 7% 94%  
41 16% 86%  
42 18% 71%  
43 19% 53% Median
44 14% 34%  
45 11% 19%  
46 4% 8%  
47 2% 4%  
48 1.2% 2%  
49 0.5% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.3% 100%  
23 2% 99.6%  
24 13% 98%  
25 12% 85%  
26 28% 73% Last Result, Median
27 17% 45%  
28 10% 28%  
29 8% 18%  
30 5% 10%  
31 4% 5%  
32 0.9% 1.1%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.4% 100%  
10 3% 99.6%  
11 14% 96%  
12 36% 83% Median
13 27% 46%  
14 14% 20%  
15 5% 6%  
16 0.7% 1.0%  
17 0.2% 0.3%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 2% 99.9%  
8 11% 98%  
9 33% 88%  
10 32% 55% Last Result, Median
11 17% 23%  
12 5% 6%  
13 1.0% 1.1%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 0% 99.6%  
2 0% 99.6%  
3 0% 99.6%  
4 0.5% 99.6%  
5 15% 99.1%  
6 34% 84% Median
7 39% 50%  
8 10% 11%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 39% 100% Last Result
1 0% 61%  
2 0% 61%  
3 0% 61%  
4 16% 61% Median
5 37% 45%  
6 7% 8%  
7 0.5% 0.5%  
8 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 1.0%  
2 0% 1.0%  
3 0% 1.0%  
4 0.5% 1.0%  
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 81 100% 79–85 78–86 78–87 76–88
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 69 100% 67–73 66–74 65–74 64–75
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 62 100% 59–65 58–66 57–66 56–68
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 59 100% 56–62 55–63 54–64 53–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 59 100% 56–62 55–63 54–64 53–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 55 98% 52–58 52–59 51–60 49–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 52 84% 50–55 49–56 48–57 47–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 49 26% 46–52 45–53 45–54 44–55
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 45 2% 43–49 42–50 42–50 40–52
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 43 0% 40–46 39–47 39–48 38–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 39 0% 36–42 36–43 35–44 34–45
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 36 0% 34–40 33–40 33–41 32–42
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 22 0% 20–24 20–25 19–25 18–27

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.4% 99.9%  
77 2% 99.5%  
78 4% 98%  
79 15% 94% Last Result
80 14% 79%  
81 17% 66% Median
82 13% 49%  
83 7% 36%  
84 12% 29%  
85 7% 17%  
86 6% 9%  
87 3% 3%  
88 0.4% 0.6%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100% Last Result
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0.3% 99.9%  
64 1.3% 99.6%  
65 3% 98%  
66 5% 95%  
67 13% 90%  
68 21% 77%  
69 16% 56% Median
70 11% 41%  
71 8% 30%  
72 10% 22%  
73 7% 12%  
74 3% 5%  
75 1.1% 2%  
76 0.3% 0.5%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 1.2% 99.6%  
57 2% 98%  
58 4% 96%  
59 7% 92%  
60 18% 85%  
61 17% 67% Median
62 17% 50%  
63 13% 33%  
64 7% 21%  
65 8% 14% Last Result
66 4% 6%  
67 2% 2%  
68 0.5% 0.6%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Majority
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.6% 99.7%  
54 2% 99.1%  
55 4% 97%  
56 7% 93% Last Result
57 11% 86%  
58 24% 75%  
59 14% 51% Median
60 15% 38%  
61 11% 23%  
62 6% 12%  
63 3% 6%  
64 2% 3%  
65 1.0% 1.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Majority
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.6% 99.7%  
54 2% 99.1%  
55 4% 97%  
56 7% 93% Last Result
57 11% 86%  
58 24% 75%  
59 14% 51% Median
60 15% 38%  
61 11% 23%  
62 6% 12%  
63 3% 6%  
64 2% 3%  
65 1.0% 1.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.4% 99.9%  
50 1.3% 99.5%  
51 3% 98% Majority
52 5% 95%  
53 15% 90% Last Result
54 13% 75%  
55 19% 62% Median
56 14% 42%  
57 13% 28%  
58 8% 16%  
59 4% 8%  
60 3% 4%  
61 0.9% 1.3%  
62 0.3% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100% Last Result
45 0% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.9% 99.7%  
48 3% 98.8%  
49 5% 96%  
50 7% 91%  
51 23% 84% Majority
52 15% 61%  
53 13% 46% Median
54 16% 32%  
55 9% 16%  
56 3% 7%  
57 3% 5%  
58 1.4% 2%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.4% 99.9%  
44 1.3% 99.5%  
45 3% 98%  
46 6% 95% Last Result
47 9% 88%  
48 17% 79%  
49 23% 62% Median
50 13% 40%  
51 13% 26% Majority
52 7% 14%  
53 4% 7%  
54 1.5% 3%  
55 0.9% 1.1%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.6% 99.8%  
41 1.5% 99.2%  
42 6% 98%  
43 12% 92%  
44 11% 80% Median
45 20% 69%  
46 18% 50%  
47 13% 32%  
48 8% 19%  
49 6% 11%  
50 3% 5%  
51 1.2% 2% Majority
52 0.5% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 2% 99.6%  
39 3% 98%  
40 10% 94%  
41 14% 84%  
42 18% 70% Median
43 17% 51%  
44 13% 34%  
45 9% 22%  
46 6% 13%  
47 3% 7%  
48 3% 3% Last Result
49 0.5% 0.7%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.9%  
35 2% 99.4%  
36 8% 97%  
37 11% 89%  
38 20% 78% Median
39 18% 58%  
40 16% 41%  
41 10% 25%  
42 8% 15%  
43 4% 7%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.6% 0.9% Last Result
46 0.3% 0.4%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.4% 99.9%  
32 1.4% 99.5%  
33 6% 98%  
34 10% 92%  
35 22% 82%  
36 20% 60% Last Result, Median
37 13% 39%  
38 8% 27%  
39 8% 18%  
40 6% 10%  
41 3% 5%  
42 1.4% 2%  
43 0.3% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.6% 99.9%  
19 3% 99.3%  
20 10% 97%  
21 18% 86%  
22 28% 68% Median
23 20% 40%  
24 11% 20%  
25 7% 9%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.4% 0.6%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations