Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 25–29 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 36.5% 34.6–38.5% 34.0–39.0% 33.6–39.5% 32.7–40.5%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 23.5% 21.8–25.3% 21.4–25.8% 21.0–26.2% 20.2–27.1%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 11.9% 10.7–13.3% 10.3–13.7% 10.0–14.1% 9.5–14.8%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 10.4% 9.3–11.7% 8.9–12.1% 8.7–12.5% 8.1–13.1%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.7% 6.6–10.0% 6.1–10.6%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.6%
Eesti 200 4.4% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.2–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.6%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 45 45 45–46 44–46 41–46
Eesti Keskerakond 26 26 26 25–26 25–27 23–27
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 13 12–13 11–13 11–13 11–13
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 10 10–11 10–12 10–12 10–12
Erakond Isamaa 12 7 7 7 7 7–9
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0–5
Eesti 200 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 1.4% 99.9%  
42 0.1% 98.5%  
43 0% 98%  
44 2% 98%  
45 89% 96% Median
46 7% 7%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 1.2% 100%  
24 0.9% 98.8%  
25 7% 98%  
26 88% 91% Last Result, Median
27 2% 3%  
28 0.1% 0.3%  
29 0% 0.2%  
30 0% 0.2%  
31 0% 0.2%  
32 0.2% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 9% 99.9%  
12 2% 91%  
13 89% 89% Median
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.1% 99.9%  
10 89% 99.8% Last Result, Median
11 1.2% 11%  
12 10% 10%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 98% 100% Median
8 1.0% 2%  
9 1.3% 1.3%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 1.3%  
2 0% 1.3%  
3 0% 1.3%  
4 0% 1.3%  
5 1.2% 1.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 84 100% 82–84 82–84 82–84 76–84
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 71 100% 71 71 71 64–71
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 65 100% 64–65 64–65 62–65 62–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 62 100% 62 62–65 62–65 61–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 62 100% 62 62–65 62–65 61–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 58 99.9% 57–58 57–58 55–58 53–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 55 99.8% 55 55–58 55–58 52–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 52 98.5% 52 52–53 51–53 50–53
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 46 0.1% 45–46 43–46 43–46 43–46
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 43 0% 43–44 43–44 43–46 43–46
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 39 0% 38–39 36–39 36–39 35–39
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 36 0% 36 36–37 36–39 34–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 23 0% 23 23 23 23–24

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 1.2% 100%  
77 0% 98.8%  
78 0% 98.8%  
79 0.1% 98.8% Last Result
80 0% 98.7%  
81 0.9% 98.7%  
82 9% 98%  
83 0% 89%  
84 89% 89% Median
85 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100% Last Result
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 1.1% 100%  
65 0% 98.8%  
66 0.1% 98.8%  
67 0.2% 98.8%  
68 0% 98.6%  
69 0.9% 98.6%  
70 0% 98%  
71 97% 98% Median
72 0% 0.2%  
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0% 99.8%  
61 0% 99.7%  
62 4% 99.7%  
63 0% 96%  
64 7% 96%  
65 89% 90% Last Result, Median
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100% Last Result
57 0% 100%  
58 0.3% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.7%  
60 0% 99.6%  
61 1.2% 99.5%  
62 88% 98% Median
63 2% 10%  
64 0% 8%  
65 8% 8%  
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100% Last Result
57 0% 100%  
58 0.3% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.7%  
60 0% 99.6%  
61 1.2% 99.5%  
62 88% 98% Median
63 2% 10%  
64 0% 8%  
65 8% 8%  
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0% 99.9% Majority
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 1.2% 99.8% Last Result
54 0.1% 98.6%  
55 2% 98.5%  
56 0% 96%  
57 8% 96%  
58 88% 89% Median
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100% Last Result
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0.2% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.8% Majority
52 1.1% 99.5%  
53 0% 98%  
54 0.1% 98%  
55 88% 98% Median
56 2% 10%  
57 0.9% 8%  
58 7% 7%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100% Last Result
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.1% 99.8%  
50 1.2% 99.7%  
51 2% 98.5% Majority
52 88% 96% Median
53 8% 8%  
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 7% 100%  
44 2% 93%  
45 2% 91%  
46 89% 89% Median
47 0% 0.3%  
48 0% 0.3%  
49 0% 0.3%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 90% 99.7% Median
44 8% 10%  
45 0% 3%  
46 2% 3%  
47 0% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.2% Last Result
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 1.2% 100%  
36 8% 98.8%  
37 0% 91%  
38 2% 91%  
39 88% 89% Median
40 0% 0.3%  
41 0% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.3%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 1.2% 99.8%  
35 0% 98.6%  
36 89% 98.6% Last Result, Median
37 7% 9%  
38 0% 3%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0% 0.2%  
41 0% 0.2%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.7%  
23 98.6% 99.7% Median
24 0.9% 1.1%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations