Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 2–9 December 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 35.4% 33.5–37.4% 33.0–37.9% 32.5–38.4% 31.6–39.4%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 21.1% 19.5–22.8% 19.1–23.3% 18.7–23.7% 17.9–24.6%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 16.3% 14.9–17.9% 14.5–18.3% 14.1–18.7% 13.5–19.5%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Eesti 200 4.4% 6.6% 5.7–7.7% 5.4–8.0% 5.2–8.3% 4.8–8.9%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.0–4.9%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 41 41 41 41 40–42
Eesti Keskerakond 26 23 23 23 23 20–23
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 17 17 17 17 16–17
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 9 9 9 9–10
Eesti 200 0 6 6 6 6 6–7
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 5 5 5 5
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0.2% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.7%  
40 0.1% 99.6%  
41 98.7% 99.5% Median
42 0.5% 0.8%  
43 0% 0.3%  
44 0% 0.3%  
45 0% 0.3%  
46 0% 0.3%  
47 0% 0.3%  
48 0% 0.3%  
49 0% 0.3%  
50 0.3% 0.3%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.8% 100%  
21 0.1% 99.2%  
22 0% 99.1%  
23 98.7% 99.1% Median
24 0% 0.4%  
25 0.2% 0.4%  
26 0% 0.2% Last Result
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 0.4% 99.8%  
17 99.1% 99.4% Median
18 0.2% 0.3%  
19 0% 0.1% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.4% 100%  
9 99.0% 99.6% Median
10 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.3% 100%  
6 99.2% 99.7% Median
7 0.5% 0.5%  
8 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 0% 99.7%  
5 99.4% 99.7% Median
6 0% 0.3%  
7 0% 0.3%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 81 100% 81 81 81 79–83
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 64 100% 64 64 64 62–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 63 100% 63 63 63 63–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 58 100% 58 58 58 58–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 55 100% 55 55 55 55–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 55 100% 55 55 55 55–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 50 0.8% 50 50 50 50–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 46 0% 46 46 46 46–47
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 45 0% 45 45 45 42–45
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 40 0% 40 40 40 37–40
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 37 0% 37 37 37 35–38
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 32 0% 32 32 32 30–33
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 26 0% 26 26 26 25–27

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0% 99.9%  
79 0.7% 99.9% Last Result
80 0% 99.2%  
81 98.7% 99.2% Median
82 0% 0.5%  
83 0.2% 0.5%  
84 0% 0.3%  
85 0% 0.3%  
86 0.3% 0.3%  
87 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100% Last Result
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.5% 99.9%  
63 0% 99.4%  
64 98.9% 99.4% Median
65 0.2% 0.5%  
66 0% 0.3%  
67 0% 0.3%  
68 0% 0.3%  
69 0% 0.3%  
70 0.3% 0.3%  
71 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.2% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 98.7% 99.5% Median
64 0.5% 0.8%  
65 0% 0.3% Last Result
66 0.3% 0.3%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0% 99.7%  
56 0.2% 99.7%  
57 0% 99.5%  
58 98.7% 99.5% Median
59 0.5% 0.8%  
60 0% 0.3%  
61 0% 0.3%  
62 0% 0.3%  
63 0% 0.3%  
64 0% 0.3%  
65 0% 0.3%  
66 0.3% 0.3%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100% Majority
52 0% 99.8%  
53 0% 99.8%  
54 0% 99.8%  
55 98.9% 99.8% Median
56 0% 0.9% Last Result
57 0.6% 0.9%  
58 0% 0.3%  
59 0.3% 0.3%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100% Majority
52 0% 99.8%  
53 0% 99.8%  
54 0% 99.8%  
55 98.9% 99.8% Median
56 0% 0.9% Last Result
57 0.6% 0.9%  
58 0% 0.3%  
59 0.3% 0.3%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100% Last Result
45 0% 100%  
46 0.2% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.8%  
48 0% 99.6%  
49 0% 99.6%  
50 98.7% 99.5% Median
51 0% 0.8% Majority
52 0.5% 0.8%  
53 0% 0.3%  
54 0% 0.3%  
55 0% 0.3%  
56 0% 0.3%  
57 0% 0.3%  
58 0% 0.3%  
59 0.3% 0.3%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.2% 100%  
44 0% 99.8%  
45 0.1% 99.8%  
46 98.7% 99.7% Last Result, Median
47 0.7% 1.0%  
48 0% 0.3%  
49 0% 0.3%  
50 0.3% 0.3%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.3% 100%  
37 0% 99.7%  
38 0% 99.7%  
39 0% 99.7%  
40 0% 99.7%  
41 0% 99.7%  
42 0.5% 99.7%  
43 0% 99.2%  
44 0.1% 99.2%  
45 98.7% 99.1% Median
46 0% 0.5%  
47 0% 0.5%  
48 0.2% 0.4%  
49 0% 0.2%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.3% 100%  
37 0.5% 99.7%  
38 0% 99.2%  
39 0.1% 99.2%  
40 98.9% 99.1% Median
41 0% 0.2%  
42 0% 0.2%  
43 0% 0.2%  
44 0% 0.2%  
45 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.3% 100%  
30 0% 99.7%  
31 0% 99.7%  
32 0% 99.7%  
33 0% 99.7%  
34 0% 99.7%  
35 0.5% 99.7%  
36 0% 99.2%  
37 98.7% 99.2% Median
38 0.1% 0.5%  
39 0% 0.5%  
40 0.2% 0.5%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.3% 100%  
30 0.5% 99.7%  
31 0% 99.2%  
32 98.7% 99.2% Median
33 0.3% 0.5%  
34 0.1% 0.3%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 0% 99.8%  
25 0.3% 99.8%  
26 98.9% 99.5% Median
27 0.5% 0.6%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0.1% Last Result
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations