Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 2–9 December 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond |
28.9% |
35.4% |
33.5–37.4% |
33.0–37.9% |
32.5–38.4% |
31.6–39.4% |
Eesti Keskerakond |
23.1% |
21.1% |
19.5–22.8% |
19.1–23.3% |
18.7–23.7% |
17.9–24.6% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond |
17.8% |
16.3% |
14.9–17.9% |
14.5–18.3% |
14.1–18.7% |
13.5–19.5% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond |
9.8% |
9.0% |
7.9–10.3% |
7.6–10.6% |
7.4–10.9% |
6.9–11.6% |
Eesti 200 |
4.4% |
6.6% |
5.7–7.7% |
5.4–8.0% |
5.2–8.3% |
4.8–8.9% |
Erakond Isamaa |
11.4% |
6.0% |
5.1–7.1% |
4.9–7.4% |
4.7–7.7% |
4.3–8.2% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised |
1.8% |
3.2% |
2.6–4.0% |
2.4–4.3% |
2.3–4.5% |
2.0–4.9% |
Eesti Vabaerakond |
1.2% |
0.4% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.2–1.0% |
0.1–1.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
35 |
0% |
100% |
|
36 |
0% |
100% |
|
37 |
0% |
100% |
|
38 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
39 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
40 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
41 |
98.7% |
99.5% |
Median |
42 |
0.5% |
0.8% |
|
43 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
44 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
45 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
46 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
47 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
48 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
49 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
50 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Keskerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
22 |
0% |
99.1% |
|
23 |
98.7% |
99.1% |
Median |
24 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
25 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
26 |
0% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
27 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
17 |
99.1% |
99.4% |
Median |
18 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
19 |
0% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
9 |
99.0% |
99.6% |
Median |
10 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
Last Result |
11 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
6 |
99.2% |
99.7% |
Median |
7 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
2 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
3 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
4 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
5 |
99.4% |
99.7% |
Median |
6 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
7 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
8 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Eesti Vabaerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond |
79 |
81 |
100% |
81 |
81 |
81 |
79–83 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond |
60 |
64 |
100% |
64 |
64 |
64 |
62–65 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa |
65 |
63 |
100% |
63 |
63 |
63 |
63–64 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond |
53 |
58 |
100% |
58 |
58 |
58 |
58–59 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond |
56 |
55 |
100% |
55 |
55 |
55 |
55–57 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa |
56 |
55 |
100% |
55 |
55 |
55 |
55–57 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond |
44 |
50 |
0.8% |
50 |
50 |
50 |
50–52 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa |
46 |
46 |
0% |
46 |
46 |
46 |
46–47 |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa |
57 |
45 |
0% |
45 |
45 |
45 |
42–45 |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond |
45 |
40 |
0% |
40 |
40 |
40 |
37–40 |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa |
48 |
37 |
0% |
37 |
37 |
37 |
35–38 |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond |
36 |
32 |
0% |
32 |
32 |
32 |
30–33 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond |
29 |
26 |
0% |
26 |
26 |
26 |
25–27 |
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
77 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
78 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
79 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
80 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
81 |
98.7% |
99.2% |
Median |
82 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
83 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
84 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
85 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
86 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
87 |
0% |
0% |
|
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
60 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
61 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
62 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
63 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
64 |
98.9% |
99.4% |
Median |
65 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
66 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
67 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
68 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
69 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
70 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
61 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
62 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
63 |
98.7% |
99.5% |
Median |
64 |
0.5% |
0.8% |
|
65 |
0% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
66 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
53 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
54 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
55 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
56 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
57 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
58 |
98.7% |
99.5% |
Median |
59 |
0.5% |
0.8% |
|
60 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
61 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
62 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
63 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
64 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
65 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
66 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
51 |
0.2% |
100% |
Majority |
52 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
53 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
54 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
55 |
98.9% |
99.8% |
Median |
56 |
0% |
0.9% |
Last Result |
57 |
0.6% |
0.9% |
|
58 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
59 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
51 |
0.2% |
100% |
Majority |
52 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
53 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
54 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
55 |
98.9% |
99.8% |
Median |
56 |
0% |
0.9% |
Last Result |
57 |
0.6% |
0.9% |
|
58 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
59 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
44 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
45 |
0% |
100% |
|
46 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
47 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
48 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
49 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
50 |
98.7% |
99.5% |
Median |
51 |
0% |
0.8% |
Majority |
52 |
0.5% |
0.8% |
|
53 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
54 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
55 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
56 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
57 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
58 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
59 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
43 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
44 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
45 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
46 |
98.7% |
99.7% |
Last Result, Median |
47 |
0.7% |
1.0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
49 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
50 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
36 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
37 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
38 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
39 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
40 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
41 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
42 |
0.5% |
99.7% |
|
43 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
44 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
45 |
98.7% |
99.1% |
Median |
46 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
47 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
48 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
49 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
50 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
36 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
37 |
0.5% |
99.7% |
|
38 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
39 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
40 |
98.9% |
99.1% |
Median |
41 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
42 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
43 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
44 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
45 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
29 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
30 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
31 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
32 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
33 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
34 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
35 |
0.5% |
99.7% |
|
36 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
37 |
98.7% |
99.2% |
Median |
38 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
39 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
40 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
41 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
42 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
29 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
30 |
0.5% |
99.7% |
|
31 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
32 |
98.7% |
99.2% |
Median |
33 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
35 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
25 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
26 |
98.9% |
99.5% |
Median |
27 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
28 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
30 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 2–9 December 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,024
- Error estimate: 3.22%