Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS for ERR, 28 November–9 December 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 29.0% 27.2–30.9% 26.7–31.4% 26.3–31.9% 25.4–32.8%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 25.0% 23.4–26.9% 22.9–27.4% 22.5–27.8% 21.7–28.7%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 17.0% 15.5–18.6% 15.1–19.0% 14.8–19.4% 14.1–20.2%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 10.0% 8.8–11.3% 8.5–11.6% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.6%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.0% 4.3–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.6% 3.5–7.1%
Eesti 200 4.4% 5.0% 4.3–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.6% 3.5–7.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.6%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 34 32–37 31–38 30–39 29–41
Eesti Keskerakond 26 29 27–32 26–33 25–34 24–35
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 19 17–21 16–22 16–22 15–24
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 10 9–12 8–12 8–13 7–14
Erakond Isamaa 12 0 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Eesti 200 0 4 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.6% 99.8%  
30 4% 99.2%  
31 5% 96%  
32 16% 91%  
33 14% 75%  
34 18% 60% Last Result, Median
35 12% 42%  
36 10% 30%  
37 12% 20%  
38 5% 8%  
39 2% 4%  
40 1.1% 2%  
41 0.6% 0.8%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.7% 99.9%  
25 3% 99.2%  
26 5% 96% Last Result
27 14% 91%  
28 12% 78%  
29 18% 65% Median
30 18% 47%  
31 12% 29%  
32 9% 16%  
33 3% 7%  
34 3% 5%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 1.4% 99.8%  
16 5% 98%  
17 10% 93%  
18 22% 83%  
19 21% 62% Last Result, Median
20 17% 41%  
21 18% 24%  
22 4% 6%  
23 1.1% 2%  
24 0.4% 0.5%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.6% 100%  
8 6% 99.4%  
9 17% 94%  
10 31% 77% Last Result, Median
11 29% 46%  
12 12% 17%  
13 3% 5%  
14 1.2% 1.3%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 51% 100% Median
1 0% 49%  
2 0% 49%  
3 0% 49%  
4 6% 49%  
5 34% 43%  
6 8% 9%  
7 0.6% 0.7%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 47% 100% Last Result
1 0% 53%  
2 0% 53%  
3 0% 53%  
4 6% 53% Median
5 36% 47%  
6 10% 11%  
7 0.7% 0.8%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 82 100% 78–88 77–90 76–90 74–92
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 63 100% 59–69 59–69 57–70 56–72
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 56 97% 52–59 51–61 50–62 49–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 53 85% 50–57 49–58 48–59 47–61
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 51 58% 47–55 45–56 45–57 44–58
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 48 25% 45–52 43–53 43–54 41–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 47 12% 44–51 42–52 42–53 41–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 47 12% 44–51 42–52 42–53 41–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 45 1.3% 41–48 41–49 40–50 39–52
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 42 0.1% 38–46 37–47 37–48 35–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 40 0% 36–43 35–44 35–46 33–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 37 0% 33–40 32–42 32–43 31–45
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 29 0% 27–32 26–33 25–33 24–35

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.4% 99.9%  
75 2% 99.5%  
76 2% 98%  
77 4% 96%  
78 4% 92%  
79 6% 88% Last Result
80 12% 82%  
81 12% 70%  
82 10% 58% Median
83 5% 49%  
84 11% 43%  
85 10% 32%  
86 10% 23%  
87 3% 13%  
88 1.1% 10%  
89 2% 9%  
90 5% 7%  
91 1.2% 2%  
92 0.6% 0.7%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.8% 99.8%  
57 2% 99.0%  
58 2% 97%  
59 8% 96%  
60 5% 88% Last Result
61 7% 83%  
62 15% 76%  
63 11% 61% Median
64 12% 50%  
65 12% 38%  
66 7% 26%  
67 6% 19%  
68 3% 13%  
69 6% 10%  
70 2% 4%  
71 1.0% 2%  
72 0.9% 1.2%  
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.5% 99.7%  
50 2% 99.3%  
51 4% 97% Majority
52 4% 94%  
53 10% 89% Median
54 11% 80%  
55 16% 69%  
56 14% 53%  
57 10% 39%  
58 13% 29%  
59 6% 16%  
60 4% 10%  
61 3% 6%  
62 1.2% 3%  
63 0.7% 1.3%  
64 0.3% 0.6%  
65 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 1.2% 99.6%  
48 3% 98%  
49 3% 95%  
50 8% 93%  
51 12% 85% Majority
52 11% 73%  
53 13% 62% Last Result, Median
54 13% 49%  
55 14% 36%  
56 9% 21%  
57 4% 12%  
58 5% 8%  
59 1.3% 3%  
60 0.5% 1.2%  
61 0.5% 0.7%  
62 0.1% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.4% 99.9%  
44 2% 99.5%  
45 3% 98%  
46 4% 95%  
47 6% 91%  
48 7% 85% Median
49 7% 77%  
50 13% 71%  
51 13% 58% Majority
52 10% 44%  
53 18% 35%  
54 7% 17%  
55 5% 10%  
56 2% 5%  
57 3% 3% Last Result
58 0.4% 0.7%  
59 0.1% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.6% 99.9%  
42 1.1% 99.3%  
43 3% 98%  
44 4% 95%  
45 9% 91% Last Result
46 9% 83%  
47 9% 73%  
48 18% 64% Median
49 10% 46%  
50 11% 36%  
51 9% 25% Majority
52 6% 16%  
53 6% 10%  
54 1.3% 4%  
55 2% 2%  
56 0.2% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 1.3% 99.6%  
42 4% 98%  
43 3% 94%  
44 8% 91% Median
45 11% 83%  
46 14% 72%  
47 12% 58%  
48 20% 46%  
49 9% 27%  
50 5% 18%  
51 5% 12% Majority
52 3% 7%  
53 2% 4%  
54 0.8% 2%  
55 0.9% 1.3%  
56 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 1.3% 99.6%  
42 4% 98%  
43 3% 94%  
44 8% 91% Median
45 11% 83%  
46 14% 72%  
47 12% 58%  
48 20% 46%  
49 9% 27%  
50 5% 18%  
51 5% 12% Majority
52 3% 7%  
53 2% 4%  
54 0.8% 2%  
55 0.9% 1.3%  
56 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 1.1% 99.6%  
40 3% 98.5%  
41 7% 96%  
42 10% 89%  
43 16% 79%  
44 13% 63% Last Result, Median
45 13% 50%  
46 11% 37%  
47 8% 26%  
48 11% 18%  
49 4% 7%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.8% 1.3% Majority
52 0.4% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 1.3% 99.8%  
36 0.8% 98.5%  
37 4% 98%  
38 7% 94%  
39 4% 86% Median
40 11% 83%  
41 15% 72%  
42 10% 57%  
43 14% 46%  
44 10% 32%  
45 7% 23%  
46 6% 16%  
47 6% 9%  
48 2% 4% Last Result
49 2% 2%  
50 0.4% 0.4%  
51 0% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.6% 99.9%  
34 1.1% 99.3%  
35 4% 98%  
36 7% 94% Last Result
37 9% 87%  
38 15% 79%  
39 10% 63% Median
40 13% 53%  
41 16% 40%  
42 8% 25%  
43 8% 16%  
44 3% 8%  
45 1.2% 4%  
46 0.8% 3%  
47 2% 2%  
48 0.3% 0.3%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.9%  
31 1.2% 99.5%  
32 5% 98%  
33 4% 93%  
34 13% 89% Median
35 9% 76%  
36 10% 67%  
37 21% 57%  
38 13% 36%  
39 7% 23%  
40 7% 16%  
41 4% 10%  
42 3% 6%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.5% 1.2%  
45 0.6% 0.7%  
46 0% 0.1% Last Result
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100%  
24 0.9% 99.7%  
25 2% 98.8%  
26 5% 96%  
27 9% 91%  
28 14% 82%  
29 20% 68% Last Result, Median
30 16% 48%  
31 13% 33%  
32 13% 19%  
33 4% 7%  
34 2% 2%  
35 0.5% 0.7%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations