Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 5–12 December 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 34.8% 33.2–36.5% 32.8–36.9% 32.4–37.4% 31.6–38.2%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 17.9% 16.6–19.3% 16.3–19.7% 16.0–20.0% 15.4–20.7%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 15.6% 14.4–16.9% 14.1–17.2% 13.8–17.6% 13.2–18.2%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 13.7% 12.6–15.0% 12.3–15.3% 12.0–15.6% 11.5–16.2%
Eesti 200 4.4% 7.7% 6.8–8.7% 6.6–8.9% 6.4–9.2% 6.0–9.7%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.3% 5.6–7.2% 5.3–7.5% 5.2–7.7% 4.8–8.2%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 40 38–42 37–42 37–43 36–44
Eesti Keskerakond 26 19 17–20 17–21 16–21 16–22
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 16 15–17 14–18 14–18 13–19
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 14 13–15 12–16 12–16 11–17
Eesti 200 0 7 6–8 6–8 6–9 5–9
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–7 4–7 4–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0.2% 100%  
36 2% 99.7%  
37 6% 98%  
38 12% 92%  
39 22% 80%  
40 26% 57% Median
41 19% 32%  
42 9% 13%  
43 3% 4%  
44 0.8% 1.1%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 3% 99.8%  
17 14% 97%  
18 16% 83%  
19 46% 67% Median
20 13% 21%  
21 6% 8%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 1.0% 99.9%  
14 8% 98.9%  
15 24% 91%  
16 33% 67% Median
17 24% 34%  
18 8% 9%  
19 1.4% 2% Last Result
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 1.1% 100%  
12 8% 98.9%  
13 26% 90%  
14 40% 65% Median
15 18% 24%  
16 6% 7%  
17 0.9% 1.0%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 2% 100%  
6 22% 98%  
7 48% 76% Median
8 24% 28%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.3% 100%  
1 0% 98.7%  
2 0% 98.7%  
3 0% 98.7%  
4 4% 98.7%  
5 44% 95%  
6 41% 51% Median
7 10% 10%  
8 0.6% 0.6%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 75 100% 73–76 72–77 72–77 71–79
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 61 100% 59–63 59–64 58–64 57–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 59 100% 57–61 57–62 56–62 55–63
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 59 100% 56–61 56–61 55–62 54–63
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 56 100% 54–58 53–59 53–59 52–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 54 98% 52–56 51–56 51–57 49–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 45 0.1% 43–47 43–48 42–48 41–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 40 0% 38–42 38–43 37–43 36–44
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 38 0% 36–40 36–41 35–41 33–42
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 35 0% 33–37 32–37 32–38 31–39
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 33 0% 31–34 30–35 30–36 29–37
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 30 0% 28–32 27–32 27–33 26–34

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.3% 100%  
71 1.3% 99.7%  
72 5% 98%  
73 18% 93%  
74 24% 75%  
75 27% 51% Median
76 15% 24%  
77 7% 9%  
78 2% 2%  
79 0.5% 0.9% Last Result
80 0.3% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 0.6% 99.8%  
58 3% 99.2%  
59 7% 96%  
60 17% 89%  
61 30% 72%  
62 22% 42% Median
63 12% 20%  
64 6% 8%  
65 2% 2% Last Result
66 0.3% 0.3%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.9% 99.8%  
56 3% 98.9% Last Result
57 12% 96%  
58 18% 84%  
59 27% 66%  
60 19% 39% Median
61 14% 21%  
62 5% 7%  
63 1.3% 2%  
64 0.2% 0.3%  
65 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.6% 99.9%  
55 2% 99.4%  
56 7% 97%  
57 17% 90%  
58 19% 73%  
59 28% 54% Median
60 15% 26% Last Result
61 9% 11%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.7% 1.0%  
64 0.2% 0.3%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.4% 100% Majority
52 2% 99.6%  
53 5% 98% Last Result
54 12% 93%  
55 23% 80%  
56 28% 57% Median
57 16% 30%  
58 8% 13%  
59 4% 6%  
60 0.9% 1.3%  
61 0.3% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100% Last Result
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.4% 99.9%  
50 2% 99.5%  
51 7% 98% Majority
52 17% 91%  
53 22% 74%  
54 20% 52% Median
55 21% 32%  
56 8% 12%  
57 2% 4%  
58 1.0% 1.3%  
59 0.3% 0.3%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 0.7% 99.7%  
42 3% 99.0%  
43 7% 96%  
44 20% 89%  
45 26% 69%  
46 19% 43% Last Result, Median
47 16% 24%  
48 5% 7%  
49 2% 2%  
50 0.4% 0.5%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.8%  
36 1.0% 99.6%  
37 2% 98.6%  
38 8% 96%  
39 19% 88%  
40 26% 69%  
41 20% 44% Median
42 14% 23%  
43 7% 9%  
44 2% 2%  
45 0.3% 0.3%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.4% 99.9%  
34 1.0% 99.4%  
35 3% 98%  
36 8% 95%  
37 19% 87%  
38 27% 68%  
39 23% 41% Median
40 12% 18%  
41 4% 6%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0.3% 0.3%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 1.3% 99.8%  
32 5% 98.6%  
33 14% 93%  
34 21% 80%  
35 28% 59% Median
36 19% 31%  
37 8% 12%  
38 3% 4%  
39 0.7% 0.8%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 2% 99.8%  
30 5% 98%  
31 13% 93%  
32 22% 80%  
33 35% 57% Median
34 13% 23%  
35 7% 10%  
36 2% 3% Last Result
37 0.5% 0.6%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.8% 99.9%  
27 4% 99.1%  
28 10% 95%  
29 24% 85% Last Result
30 32% 61% Median
31 16% 29%  
32 8% 13%  
33 4% 5%  
34 0.5% 0.6%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations