Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 11–17 December 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 34.3% 32.4–36.3% 31.9–36.8% 31.4–37.3% 30.5–38.3%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 22.5% 20.9–24.3% 20.4–24.8% 20.0–25.2% 19.3–26.1%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 13.5% 12.2–15.0% 11.8–15.4% 11.5–15.8% 10.9–16.5%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 11.8% 10.6–13.2% 10.2–13.6% 9.9–14.0% 9.4–14.6%
Eesti 200 4.4% 6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.3% 5.4–8.5% 5.0–9.1%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.4% 4.6–6.4% 4.4–6.7% 4.2–7.0% 3.8–7.5%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.0–4.9%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.1% 0.0–0.4% 0.0–0.5% 0.0–0.6% 0.0–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 40 38–43 37–43 37–44 35–45
Eesti Keskerakond 26 25 23–27 23–27 22–28 21–29
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 14 13–16 12–16 11–17 11–18
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 12 11–14 10–14 10–14 9–15
Eesti 200 0 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–9
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100% Last Result
35 0.4% 99.9%  
36 1.2% 99.5%  
37 6% 98%  
38 12% 93%  
39 27% 81%  
40 21% 54% Median
41 15% 33%  
42 8% 19%  
43 6% 10%  
44 4% 4%  
45 0.4% 0.7%  
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 0.5% 99.8%  
22 2% 99.3%  
23 7% 97%  
24 22% 90%  
25 35% 68% Median
26 19% 33% Last Result
27 10% 14%  
28 4% 5%  
29 0.5% 0.8%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 2% 99.7%  
12 5% 97%  
13 12% 92%  
14 48% 80% Median
15 22% 32%  
16 7% 10%  
17 3% 3%  
18 0.5% 0.6%  
19 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 2% 100%  
10 8% 98% Last Result
11 24% 90%  
12 32% 66% Median
13 24% 34%  
14 9% 11%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.2% 0.3%  
17 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.6%  
2 0% 99.6%  
3 0% 99.6%  
4 0.4% 99.6%  
5 14% 99.3%  
6 49% 86% Median
7 31% 37%  
8 6% 6%  
9 0.5% 0.6%  
10 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 30% 100%  
1 0% 70%  
2 0% 70%  
3 0% 70%  
4 6% 70%  
5 53% 64% Median
6 9% 11%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0.1% 0.2%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 79 100% 76–83 76–84 75–85 74–85
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 64 100% 62–69 61–70 61–71 60–71
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 58 100% 55–60 55–60 54–61 53–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 56 99.5% 53–58 52–59 52–59 51–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 56 99.5% 53–58 52–59 52–59 51–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 54 98% 52–57 51–57 51–58 49–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 51 78% 49–55 49–56 48–56 47–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 44 0.1% 41–46 40–46 40–47 38–48
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 43 0% 40–45 39–46 39–46 37–47
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 41 0% 38–43 38–43 37–44 36–45
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 39 0% 37–41 37–42 36–43 34–44
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 37 0% 35–39 35–39 35–40 32–41
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 26 0% 24–28 24–29 23–30 22–31

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.2% 100%  
74 0.7% 99.8%  
75 3% 99.1%  
76 9% 96%  
77 14% 87%  
78 18% 73%  
79 21% 55% Last Result, Median
80 4% 34%  
81 12% 30%  
82 7% 18%  
83 3% 11%  
84 6% 8%  
85 3% 3%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 2% 99.9% Last Result
61 7% 98%  
62 3% 91%  
63 10% 88%  
64 29% 78%  
65 16% 49% Median
66 8% 33%  
67 12% 26%  
68 3% 13%  
69 1.5% 10%  
70 6% 9%  
71 3% 3%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100% Majority
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 0.7% 99.6%  
54 2% 99.0%  
55 9% 97%  
56 13% 88%  
57 17% 75%  
58 29% 58%  
59 16% 29% Median
60 10% 13%  
61 3% 4%  
62 0.6% 1.1%  
63 0.3% 0.5%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.8%  
51 2% 99.5% Majority
52 4% 98%  
53 6% 94%  
54 19% 87%  
55 12% 68%  
56 33% 56% Last Result
57 6% 23% Median
58 11% 17%  
59 4% 6%  
60 1.1% 2%  
61 0.6% 0.8%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.8%  
51 2% 99.5% Majority
52 4% 98%  
53 6% 94%  
54 19% 87%  
55 12% 68%  
56 33% 56% Last Result
57 6% 23% Median
58 11% 17%  
59 4% 6%  
60 1.1% 2%  
61 0.6% 0.8%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.4% 99.8%  
50 2% 99.4%  
51 6% 98% Majority
52 10% 92%  
53 26% 82% Last Result
54 16% 56% Median
55 17% 40%  
56 10% 23%  
57 9% 13%  
58 3% 4%  
59 0.5% 0.9%  
60 0.2% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100% Last Result
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.7% 99.8%  
48 2% 99.1%  
49 10% 97%  
50 9% 87%  
51 30% 78% Majority
52 10% 48% Median
53 12% 38%  
54 15% 27%  
55 5% 12%  
56 6% 7%  
57 0.9% 1.4%  
58 0.3% 0.5%  
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.5% 99.8%  
39 2% 99.3%  
40 6% 98%  
41 8% 92%  
42 12% 84%  
43 14% 72%  
44 27% 57%  
45 19% 30% Median
46 7% 11% Last Result
47 2% 4%  
48 1.5% 2%  
49 0.3% 0.5%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.3% 99.7%  
38 1.1% 99.5%  
39 4% 98%  
40 13% 94%  
41 8% 81%  
42 14% 73%  
43 15% 59%  
44 27% 44% Median
45 9% 17%  
46 6% 8%  
47 2% 2%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.2% 99.7%  
36 0.3% 99.5%  
37 2% 99.2%  
38 13% 97%  
39 13% 84%  
40 12% 71%  
41 23% 59%  
42 22% 36% Median
43 9% 13%  
44 4% 4%  
45 0.4% 0.7%  
46 0.1% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.8%  
35 1.0% 99.3%  
36 2% 98%  
37 12% 96%  
38 14% 84%  
39 28% 70% Median
40 23% 42%  
41 9% 19%  
42 7% 10%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.6% 0.9%  
45 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.8%  
33 0.4% 99.4%  
34 0.9% 99.0%  
35 9% 98%  
36 27% 89% Last Result
37 24% 62% Median
38 22% 38%  
39 14% 17%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.5% 0.8%  
42 0.1% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 1.4% 99.9%  
23 3% 98%  
24 9% 95%  
25 16% 86%  
26 34% 70% Median
27 17% 36%  
28 12% 19%  
29 4% 7% Last Result
30 3% 3%  
31 0.4% 0.5%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations