Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 18–23 December 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 30.3% 28.5–32.2% 28.0–32.8% 27.5–33.2% 26.7–34.2%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 22.0% 20.4–23.7% 19.9–24.2% 19.5–24.7% 18.8–25.5%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 16.1% 14.7–17.7% 14.3–18.1% 13.9–18.5% 13.3–19.3%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 11.9% 10.7–13.3% 10.3–13.7% 10.0–14.1% 9.5–14.8%
Eesti 200 4.4% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.2–5.2%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 35 33–38 32–39 32–40 30–41
Eesti Keskerakond 26 25 22–27 22–28 21–29 20–29
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 17 15–19 15–20 14–21 14–21
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 12 11–14 11–15 10–15 9–16
Eesti 200 0 7 6–8 5–9 5–9 5–9
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 0–7 0–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.9% 99.9%  
31 1.3% 99.0%  
32 6% 98%  
33 12% 91%  
34 10% 79% Last Result
35 28% 69% Median
36 17% 41%  
37 11% 25%  
38 8% 14%  
39 3% 6%  
40 1.2% 3%  
41 1.3% 1.4%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.5% 99.9%  
21 3% 99.4%  
22 7% 96%  
23 16% 89%  
24 19% 73%  
25 26% 54% Median
26 18% 28% Last Result
27 4% 10%  
28 3% 7%  
29 3% 3%  
30 0.2% 0.4%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.4% 100%  
14 4% 99.6%  
15 9% 96%  
16 12% 87%  
17 29% 75% Median
18 28% 46%  
19 11% 18% Last Result
20 5% 8%  
21 2% 3%  
22 0.3% 0.4%  
23 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.7% 100%  
10 2% 99.2% Last Result
11 19% 97%  
12 42% 78% Median
13 18% 36%  
14 10% 18%  
15 8% 9%  
16 0.9% 0.9%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0.1% 99.9%  
5 7% 99.8%  
6 38% 93%  
7 31% 55% Median
8 19% 24%  
9 5% 5%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100%  
1 0% 84%  
2 0% 84%  
3 0% 84%  
4 2% 84%  
5 57% 82% Median
6 10% 26%  
7 15% 16%  
8 1.2% 1.2%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.1% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.9%  
2 0% 0.9%  
3 0% 0.9%  
4 0.4% 0.9%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 77 100% 74–80 74–82 73–83 72–83
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 60 100% 57–63 56–64 56–65 54–66
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 58 99.6% 54–59 54–60 53–61 51–63
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 53 82% 50–55 49–56 49–57 47–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 52 80% 50–55 49–55 48–56 47–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 52 80% 50–55 49–55 48–56 47–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 47 8% 45–50 44–52 44–52 43–55
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 47 3% 43–49 43–50 42–51 40–52
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 42 0% 39–44 39–45 38–46 37–48
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 42 0% 39–44 37–45 37–46 36–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 40 0% 37–43 36–43 36–44 33–45
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 37 0% 34–40 34–40 33–41 32–42
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 30 0% 27–32 27–33 26–34 25–35

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.7% 99.8%  
73 3% 99.0%  
74 10% 96%  
75 13% 87%  
76 15% 74%  
77 13% 59% Median
78 21% 46%  
79 10% 25% Last Result
80 7% 15%  
81 3% 9%  
82 3% 5%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0.2% 0.2%  
86 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.5% 99.9%  
55 1.0% 99.4%  
56 6% 98%  
57 14% 93%  
58 11% 79%  
59 12% 67%  
60 19% 56% Last Result, Median
61 12% 37%  
62 10% 25%  
63 6% 15%  
64 4% 9%  
65 3% 5%  
66 2% 2%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.6% Majority
52 0.9% 99.4%  
53 2% 98%  
54 11% 97%  
55 9% 86%  
56 6% 77%  
57 20% 71% Median
58 28% 51%  
59 13% 23%  
60 5% 10%  
61 2% 4%  
62 2% 2%  
63 0.4% 0.5%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.2% 100%  
47 0.5% 99.8%  
48 2% 99.3%  
49 7% 98%  
50 9% 90%  
51 8% 82% Majority
52 18% 74% Median
53 26% 55% Last Result
54 13% 29%  
55 9% 16%  
56 3% 8%  
57 2% 4%  
58 2% 2%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.2% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.7%  
47 1.4% 99.5%  
48 2% 98%  
49 4% 96%  
50 13% 92%  
51 12% 80% Majority
52 28% 67% Median
53 11% 39%  
54 10% 29%  
55 14% 18%  
56 2% 4% Last Result
57 1.4% 2%  
58 0.3% 0.4%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.2% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.7%  
47 1.4% 99.5%  
48 2% 98%  
49 4% 96%  
50 13% 92%  
51 12% 80% Majority
52 28% 67% Median
53 11% 39%  
54 10% 29%  
55 14% 18%  
56 2% 4% Last Result
57 1.4% 2%  
58 0.3% 0.4%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.4% 99.9%  
43 1.5% 99.5%  
44 3% 98% Last Result
45 10% 95%  
46 14% 85%  
47 26% 70% Median
48 12% 44%  
49 9% 32%  
50 15% 23%  
51 3% 8% Majority
52 4% 5%  
53 0.9% 2%  
54 0.2% 0.9%  
55 0.6% 0.6%  
56 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.4% 100%  
40 0.8% 99.6%  
41 0.7% 98.8%  
42 1.4% 98%  
43 9% 97%  
44 9% 88%  
45 11% 79%  
46 12% 68%  
47 12% 56% Median
48 31% 44%  
49 6% 13%  
50 4% 8%  
51 2% 3% Majority
52 1.3% 2%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 0.6% 99.6%  
38 4% 99.0%  
39 8% 95%  
40 16% 88%  
41 14% 72%  
42 9% 58% Median
43 31% 49%  
44 9% 17%  
45 5% 9% Last Result
46 2% 4%  
47 2% 2%  
48 0.4% 0.6%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.9%  
36 1.2% 99.6%  
37 4% 98%  
38 3% 94%  
39 9% 91%  
40 12% 83%  
41 10% 70%  
42 28% 60% Median
43 14% 32%  
44 10% 18%  
45 3% 7%  
46 3% 4%  
47 0.7% 1.3%  
48 0.6% 0.6% Last Result
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.4% 99.9%  
34 0.5% 99.5%  
35 1.2% 98.9%  
36 6% 98%  
37 7% 92%  
38 7% 84%  
39 15% 78%  
40 28% 63% Median
41 11% 34%  
42 12% 24%  
43 8% 11%  
44 2% 3%  
45 1.0% 1.4%  
46 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 2% 99.9%  
33 3% 98%  
34 7% 95%  
35 8% 89%  
36 14% 80% Last Result
37 36% 67% Median
38 10% 30%  
39 7% 20%  
40 9% 14%  
41 3% 4%  
42 0.7% 1.1%  
43 0.2% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.4% 99.8%  
26 4% 99.3%  
27 9% 96%  
28 16% 86%  
29 6% 70% Last Result, Median
30 36% 64%  
31 10% 28%  
32 13% 18%  
33 2% 6%  
34 2% 3%  
35 0.8% 0.9%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations