Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 3–7 January 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 34.1% 32.2–36.1% 31.7–36.6% 31.2–37.1% 30.3–38.0%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 23.6% 21.9–25.4% 21.5–25.9% 21.1–26.3% 20.3–27.2%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 15.8% 14.4–17.4% 14.0–17.8% 13.7–18.2% 13.0–19.0%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.2% 7.2–9.4% 6.9–9.8% 6.6–10.1% 6.2–10.7%
Eesti 200 4.4% 7.3% 6.3–8.5% 6.1–8.8% 5.8–9.1% 5.4–9.7%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.3% 5.4–7.4% 5.2–7.7% 5.0–8.0% 4.6–8.5%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.6% 2.1–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.6–4.2%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 39 37–41 36–42 36–43 34–44
Eesti Keskerakond 26 26 24–28 23–29 23–29 22–30
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 16 15–18 14–18 14–19 13–21
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 7–9 6–9 6–10 6–10
Eesti 200 0 7 6–8 5–9 5–9 5–9
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 5–7 5–7 4–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.9% Last Result
35 2% 99.4%  
36 4% 98%  
37 17% 94%  
38 11% 77%  
39 25% 66% Median
40 5% 42%  
41 30% 36%  
42 3% 6%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.3% 0.5%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.3% 100%  
22 0.8% 99.7%  
23 5% 98.9%  
24 16% 94%  
25 13% 78%  
26 39% 64% Last Result, Median
27 10% 25%  
28 9% 15%  
29 5% 5%  
30 0.5% 0.8%  
31 0.2% 0.3%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.7% 99.9%  
14 4% 99.1%  
15 16% 95%  
16 44% 79% Median
17 23% 35%  
18 7% 12%  
19 3% 5% Last Result
20 1.4% 2%  
21 0.7% 0.7%  
22 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.4% 100%  
6 10% 99.6%  
7 43% 90% Median
8 28% 47%  
9 16% 20%  
10 3% 4% Last Result
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 7% 99.8%  
6 42% 93%  
7 36% 51% Median
8 9% 15%  
9 5% 5%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 2% 98%  
5 53% 95% Median
6 25% 42%  
7 16% 17%  
8 1.2% 1.3%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 81 100% 79–83 78–84 78–84 77–87
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 65 100% 63–67 61–68 61–68 60–70
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 61 100% 58–63 58–64 57–65 56–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 56 99.7% 53–58 53–58 52–59 51–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 53 86% 50–54 49–55 48–56 47–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 53 86% 50–54 49–55 48–56 47–57
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 47 5% 46–50 45–51 44–52 42–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 47 2% 44–49 44–50 43–50 42–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 45 0.1% 42–47 42–48 41–48 39–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 42 0% 40–44 39–45 39–46 38–47
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 39 0% 36–41 36–42 36–43 35–43
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 33 0% 31–36 31–37 30–37 29–38
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 24 0% 22–26 22–26 21–27 20–28

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.2% 100%  
77 1.3% 99.8%  
78 5% 98%  
79 7% 94% Last Result
80 19% 86%  
81 27% 68% Median
82 9% 41%  
83 27% 32%  
84 3% 5%  
85 0.7% 2%  
86 1.0% 2%  
87 0.4% 0.7%  
88 0.1% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.2% 100%  
60 1.0% 99.8% Last Result
61 4% 98.8%  
62 3% 95%  
63 16% 92%  
64 15% 75%  
65 20% 60% Median
66 9% 40%  
67 26% 32%  
68 3% 5%  
69 1.2% 2%  
70 0.6% 1.0%  
71 0.3% 0.4%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.6% 99.7%  
57 3% 99.1%  
58 7% 96%  
59 8% 89%  
60 24% 82% Median
61 14% 58%  
62 28% 44%  
63 9% 16%  
64 4% 7%  
65 3% 3% Last Result
66 0.4% 0.5%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 2% 99.7% Majority
52 2% 98%  
53 15% 95% Last Result
54 12% 80%  
55 16% 68% Median
56 14% 52%  
57 26% 38%  
58 8% 12%  
59 2% 4%  
60 1.3% 2%  
61 0.3% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.2% 100%  
47 0.7% 99.8%  
48 2% 99.1%  
49 4% 97%  
50 8% 93%  
51 17% 86% Median, Majority
52 18% 68%  
53 31% 51%  
54 11% 20%  
55 7% 9%  
56 1.0% 3% Last Result
57 1.2% 1.5%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.2% 100%  
47 0.7% 99.8%  
48 2% 99.1%  
49 4% 97%  
50 8% 93%  
51 17% 86% Median, Majority
52 18% 68%  
53 31% 51%  
54 11% 20%  
55 7% 9%  
56 1.0% 3% Last Result
57 1.2% 1.5%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.4% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.6%  
43 0.7% 99.4%  
44 3% 98.7%  
45 4% 95%  
46 9% 92%  
47 47% 82% Median
48 7% 35%  
49 15% 29%  
50 9% 14%  
51 2% 5% Majority
52 3% 3%  
53 0.4% 0.4%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.3% 100%  
42 1.0% 99.6%  
43 3% 98.7%  
44 8% 95% Last Result
45 10% 87%  
46 15% 77% Median
47 22% 63%  
48 31% 41%  
49 5% 10%  
50 3% 5%  
51 1.5% 2% Majority
52 0.3% 0.7%  
53 0.3% 0.4%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.7%  
40 1.4% 99.3%  
41 2% 98%  
42 11% 96%  
43 8% 85%  
44 26% 77% Median
45 8% 51%  
46 33% 43% Last Result
47 4% 10%  
48 5% 6%  
49 0.9% 1.3%  
50 0.3% 0.4%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 1.2% 99.6%  
39 4% 98%  
40 11% 94%  
41 13% 83%  
42 39% 70% Median
43 11% 31%  
44 12% 19%  
45 3% 7% Last Result
46 3% 4%  
47 0.7% 0.9%  
48 0.2% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.3% 99.8%  
35 2% 99.5%  
36 9% 98%  
37 6% 89%  
38 29% 83% Median
39 23% 54%  
40 9% 31%  
41 13% 22%  
42 7% 9%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.3% 0.3%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.4% 99.9%  
30 4% 99.5%  
31 8% 95%  
32 8% 87%  
33 36% 79% Median
34 23% 42%  
35 8% 19%  
36 5% 12% Last Result
37 6% 7%  
38 0.7% 0.9%  
39 0.2% 0.3%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.4% 100%  
20 0.8% 99.6%  
21 2% 98.9%  
22 10% 96%  
23 36% 87% Median
24 20% 50%  
25 12% 31%  
26 14% 18%  
27 3% 4%  
28 1.4% 2%  
29 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
30 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations