Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 8–14 January 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 32.3% 30.4–34.2% 29.9–34.8% 29.5–35.3% 28.6–36.2%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 24.4% 22.7–26.2% 22.2–26.7% 21.8–27.2% 21.0–28.0%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 13.0% 11.7–14.5% 11.4–14.9% 11.1–15.2% 10.5–16.0%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.5% 7.5–9.7% 7.2–10.1% 6.9–10.4% 6.5–11.0%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 8.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
Eesti 200 4.4% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 38 35–40 34–40 34–41 33–42
Eesti Keskerakond 26 27 25–30 25–30 24–31 23–32
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 13 12–15 11–15 11–16 10–17
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 7–10 7–10 6–10 6–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 8 7–9 6–10 6–10 6–11
Eesti 200 0 7 5–8 5–8 5–8 4–9
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 2% 99.7%  
34 4% 98% Last Result
35 9% 94%  
36 15% 86%  
37 21% 71%  
38 20% 50% Median
39 16% 30%  
40 9% 14%  
41 3% 5%  
42 1.4% 2%  
43 0.3% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 1.1% 99.8%  
24 4% 98.7%  
25 10% 95%  
26 19% 86% Last Result
27 22% 67% Median
28 20% 44%  
29 14% 24%  
30 7% 11%  
31 2% 4%  
32 1.0% 1.2%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.8% 100%  
11 5% 99.2%  
12 19% 94%  
13 30% 75% Median
14 26% 45%  
15 15% 19%  
16 3% 4%  
17 0.7% 0.9%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 4% 99.8%  
7 22% 95%  
8 35% 73% Median
9 28% 39%  
10 9% 11% Last Result
11 2% 2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 5% 99.8%  
7 26% 95%  
8 36% 69% Median
9 26% 33%  
10 7% 8%  
11 0.9% 1.0%  
12 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
13 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 0.4% 99.7%  
5 13% 99.4%  
6 36% 87%  
7 37% 50% Median
8 12% 14%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 1.2%  
2 0% 1.2%  
3 0% 1.2%  
4 0.8% 1.2%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 78 100% 76–80 75–81 75–81 74–82
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 65 100% 62–67 62–68 61–68 60–70
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 59 100% 56–61 56–62 55–63 54–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 54 95% 51–56 51–57 50–58 49–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 54 95% 51–56 51–57 50–58 49–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 51 55% 49–53 48–54 47–55 46–56
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 49 17% 46–51 46–52 45–53 44–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 46 0.5% 43–48 42–49 42–49 41–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 46 0.7% 43–48 42–49 42–49 41–51
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 44 0% 41–46 40–47 40–47 39–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 41 0% 38–43 38–44 37–45 36–46
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 36 0% 33–38 33–39 32–39 31–40
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 22 0% 20–23 19–24 19–25 18–26

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.3% 99.9%  
74 1.1% 99.5%  
75 4% 98%  
76 9% 94%  
77 18% 85%  
78 25% 66% Median
79 18% 41% Last Result
80 16% 24%  
81 6% 8%  
82 1.2% 2%  
83 0.3% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.3% 99.9%  
60 0.9% 99.7% Last Result
61 3% 98.8%  
62 8% 96%  
63 12% 88%  
64 17% 76%  
65 25% 58% Median
66 14% 34%  
67 11% 20%  
68 6% 8%  
69 1.3% 2%  
70 0.5% 0.7%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.8% 99.7%  
55 2% 98.9%  
56 9% 97%  
57 9% 88%  
58 20% 79%  
59 19% 58% Median
60 19% 40%  
61 12% 21%  
62 6% 9%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.4% 0.6%  
65 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.9%  
49 1.5% 99.6%  
50 3% 98%  
51 7% 95% Majority
52 15% 88%  
53 16% 73%  
54 22% 57% Median
55 15% 34%  
56 12% 19% Last Result
57 5% 8%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.4% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.9%  
49 1.5% 99.6%  
50 3% 98%  
51 7% 95% Majority
52 15% 88%  
53 16% 73%  
54 22% 57% Median
55 15% 34%  
56 12% 19% Last Result
57 5% 8%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.4% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 1.1% 99.7%  
47 2% 98.6%  
48 6% 96%  
49 14% 90%  
50 20% 76%  
51 17% 55% Median, Majority
52 17% 39%  
53 13% 22% Last Result
54 6% 8%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.6% 0.8%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 1.2% 99.7%  
45 3% 98%  
46 7% 95%  
47 15% 89%  
48 20% 74% Median
49 19% 54%  
50 18% 35%  
51 9% 17% Majority
52 5% 8%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.6% 0.7%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.9%  
41 1.4% 99.5%  
42 4% 98%  
43 10% 94%  
44 13% 85%  
45 19% 71%  
46 22% 53% Last Result, Median
47 14% 30%  
48 10% 16%  
49 4% 6%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0.4% 0.5% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 1.5% 99.6%  
42 3% 98%  
43 8% 95%  
44 13% 87% Last Result
45 20% 74%  
46 20% 54% Median
47 17% 34%  
48 10% 17%  
49 5% 7%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0.5% 0.7% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.9%  
39 0.9% 99.6%  
40 4% 98.7%  
41 9% 95%  
42 17% 85%  
43 16% 69% Median
44 20% 53%  
45 18% 33%  
46 10% 15%  
47 3% 5%  
48 1.4% 2% Last Result
49 0.5% 0.7%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 1.1% 99.7%  
37 3% 98.7%  
38 7% 95%  
39 15% 88%  
40 21% 74% Median
41 19% 52%  
42 18% 34%  
43 8% 16%  
44 5% 8%  
45 2% 3% Last Result
46 0.4% 0.6%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.9% 99.7%  
32 3% 98.8%  
33 10% 96%  
34 17% 85%  
35 18% 68% Median
36 22% 50% Last Result
37 12% 28%  
38 11% 17%  
39 4% 5%  
40 1.0% 1.4%  
41 0.3% 0.4%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.3% 100%  
18 2% 99.6%  
19 7% 98%  
20 15% 91%  
21 23% 76% Median
22 26% 53%  
23 16% 26%  
24 6% 10%  
25 3% 4%  
26 0.6% 0.7%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations