Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 16–24 January 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 35.0% 33.1–37.0% 32.6–37.5% 32.1–38.0% 31.2–39.0%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 22.8% 21.2–24.6% 20.7–25.1% 20.3–25.5% 19.5–26.4%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 14.6% 13.2–16.1% 12.9–16.6% 12.5–16.9% 11.9–17.7%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.3% 8.2–10.6% 7.9–10.9% 7.7–11.3% 7.2–11.9%
Eesti 200 4.4% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.6% 4.8–6.6% 4.5–7.0% 4.3–7.2% 4.0–7.7%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.2–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.6%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 1.1% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 41 38–43 37–45 37–45 35–46
Eesti Keskerakond 26 25 23–27 22–28 21–29 21–31
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 15 14–17 13–17 13–18 12–19
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 10 8–11 7–11 7–11 7–12
Eesti 200 0 7 6–8 5–8 5–9 4–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 0–6 0–6 0–7 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0.6% 100%  
36 1.3% 99.3%  
37 4% 98%  
38 5% 94%  
39 14% 89%  
40 22% 75%  
41 26% 53% Median
42 9% 27%  
43 8% 18%  
44 3% 9%  
45 4% 6%  
46 1.3% 2%  
47 0.4% 0.4%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.3% 100%  
21 2% 99.7%  
22 7% 97%  
23 19% 90%  
24 15% 72%  
25 22% 57% Median
26 21% 35% Last Result
27 8% 14%  
28 3% 7%  
29 3% 4%  
30 0.7% 1.3%  
31 0.6% 0.6%  
32 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 2% 99.8%  
13 6% 98%  
14 17% 92%  
15 28% 75% Median
16 33% 46%  
17 10% 14%  
18 3% 4%  
19 0.8% 1.0% Last Result
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.4% 100%  
7 10% 99.6%  
8 25% 90%  
9 12% 65%  
10 41% 52% Last Result, Median
11 10% 11%  
12 1.2% 2%  
13 0.4% 0.4%  
14 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0.4% 99.8%  
5 7% 99.3%  
6 38% 92%  
7 41% 54% Median
8 9% 14%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.6% 0.7%  
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100%  
1 0% 87%  
2 0% 87%  
3 0% 87%  
4 16% 87%  
5 52% 70% Median
6 16% 19%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 80 100% 78–83 78–85 77–86 76–88
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 66 100% 63–69 62–70 62–71 60–72
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 61 100% 58–63 57–63 56–64 55–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 56 99.5% 54–59 53–60 52–60 51–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 54 95% 52–57 51–58 50–59 48–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 54 95% 52–57 51–58 50–59 48–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 50 30% 47–53 46–53 46–54 44–56
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 45 0.3% 41–47 41–48 40–49 38–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 45 1.0% 42–48 41–49 40–49 39–52
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 40 0% 37–42 37–44 36–45 35–46
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 38 0% 36–41 34–41 34–42 32–44
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 33 0% 32–36 31–37 30–38 29–40
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 24 0% 22–26 21–27 21–28 19–29

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 2% 99.9%  
77 3% 98%  
78 10% 95%  
79 15% 85% Last Result
80 25% 70%  
81 5% 45% Median
82 21% 40%  
83 9% 18%  
84 2% 10%  
85 3% 8%  
86 2% 5%  
87 1.1% 2%  
88 1.1% 1.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.7% 99.9% Last Result
61 2% 99.1%  
62 5% 98%  
63 17% 93%  
64 10% 76%  
65 15% 67%  
66 29% 51% Median
67 4% 22%  
68 7% 18%  
69 4% 11%  
70 4% 8%  
71 2% 4%  
72 1.4% 2%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.3% 99.9%  
55 1.1% 99.5%  
56 2% 98%  
57 3% 96%  
58 14% 93%  
59 15% 80%  
60 11% 65%  
61 22% 53% Median
62 16% 31%  
63 11% 15%  
64 2% 4%  
65 2% 2% Last Result
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.4% 99.9%  
51 1.3% 99.5% Majority
52 2% 98%  
53 7% 97% Last Result
54 20% 90%  
55 12% 70%  
56 15% 58% Median
57 22% 43%  
58 9% 22%  
59 6% 13%  
60 5% 6%  
61 0.8% 2%  
62 0.3% 0.7%  
63 0.2% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.2% 100%  
48 0.5% 99.7%  
49 2% 99.2%  
50 2% 98%  
51 4% 95% Majority
52 7% 91%  
53 20% 84%  
54 16% 64%  
55 21% 48%  
56 14% 27% Last Result, Median
57 8% 13%  
58 3% 5%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.2% 0.4%  
61 0.2% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.2% 100%  
48 0.5% 99.7%  
49 2% 99.2%  
50 2% 98%  
51 4% 95% Majority
52 7% 91%  
53 20% 84%  
54 16% 64%  
55 21% 48%  
56 14% 27% Last Result, Median
57 8% 13%  
58 3% 5%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.2% 0.4%  
61 0.2% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.5% 100% Last Result
45 1.1% 99.4%  
46 3% 98%  
47 6% 95%  
48 8% 89%  
49 25% 82%  
50 26% 56%  
51 9% 30% Median, Majority
52 11% 22%  
53 7% 11%  
54 2% 4%  
55 0.9% 2%  
56 0.9% 1.0%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 1.0% 99.9%  
39 0.8% 98.9%  
40 1.1% 98%  
41 8% 97%  
42 8% 90%  
43 6% 81%  
44 23% 75%  
45 23% 52% Median
46 15% 29%  
47 8% 14%  
48 3% 6%  
49 2% 3%  
50 1.0% 1.3%  
51 0.3% 0.3% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.3% 99.9%  
39 0.6% 99.6%  
40 2% 99.0%  
41 3% 97%  
42 5% 94%  
43 15% 90%  
44 8% 75%  
45 22% 67%  
46 24% 44% Last Result, Median
47 6% 20%  
48 7% 13%  
49 5% 7%  
50 0.6% 2%  
51 0.2% 1.0% Majority
52 0.7% 0.7%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0.8% 99.7%  
36 4% 99.0%  
37 6% 95%  
38 10% 89%  
39 21% 79%  
40 11% 58% Median
41 29% 47%  
42 9% 19%  
43 4% 10%  
44 2% 5%  
45 1.3% 3% Last Result
46 2% 2%  
47 0.1% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.4% 100%  
32 0.5% 99.6%  
33 0.3% 99.1%  
34 4% 98.8%  
35 4% 95%  
36 6% 90%  
37 12% 85%  
38 30% 72%  
39 11% 42%  
40 14% 31% Median
41 12% 17%  
42 3% 5%  
43 1.4% 2%  
44 0.5% 0.6%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.7% 100%  
30 2% 99.3%  
31 3% 97%  
32 13% 94%  
33 32% 81%  
34 12% 49%  
35 8% 36% Median
36 20% 28% Last Result
37 3% 7%  
38 2% 4%  
39 1.2% 2%  
40 0.5% 0.7%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.7% 100%  
20 1.1% 99.3%  
21 4% 98%  
22 8% 95%  
23 8% 86%  
24 31% 79%  
25 18% 48% Median
26 21% 30%  
27 4% 9%  
28 3% 4%  
29 1.0% 1.2% Last Result
30 0.1% 0.2%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations