Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 23–27 January 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 35.9% 34.0–37.9% 33.4–38.4% 33.0–38.9% 32.1–39.9%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 19.3% 17.8–21.0% 17.3–21.5% 17.0–21.9% 16.3–22.7%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 12.7% 11.4–14.1% 11.1–14.6% 10.8–14.9% 10.2–15.6%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 10.7% 9.5–12.1% 9.2–12.4% 8.9–12.8% 8.4–13.4%
Eesti 200 4.4% 8.5% 7.5–9.7% 7.2–10.1% 6.9–10.4% 6.5–11.0%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 42 39–45 39–46 38–47 37–48
Eesti Keskerakond 26 21 19–24 19–24 18–25 17–25
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 13 11–15 11–15 11–16 10–17
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 11 9–12 9–13 8–13 8–14
Eesti 200 0 8 7–10 7–10 6–11 6–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 4–7 0–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0.3% 100%  
37 0.5% 99.7%  
38 2% 99.2%  
39 9% 97%  
40 10% 88%  
41 9% 78%  
42 25% 69% Median
43 9% 44%  
44 22% 35%  
45 7% 13%  
46 3% 6%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.8% 1.0%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 1.3% 99.9%  
18 3% 98.6%  
19 15% 95%  
20 27% 80%  
21 20% 53% Median
22 16% 33%  
23 6% 16%  
24 7% 10%  
25 3% 3%  
26 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 1.1% 99.9%  
11 15% 98.8%  
12 21% 84%  
13 25% 63% Median
14 25% 38%  
15 9% 13%  
16 4% 4%  
17 0.6% 0.6%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 3% 99.9%  
9 12% 97%  
10 28% 86% Last Result
11 36% 58% Median
12 15% 22%  
13 6% 7%  
14 1.0% 1.1%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.2% 100%  
6 5% 99.8%  
7 18% 95%  
8 29% 77% Median
9 34% 48%  
10 11% 13%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100%  
1 0% 92%  
2 0% 92%  
3 0% 92%  
4 7% 92%  
5 46% 85% Median
6 27% 38%  
7 10% 11%  
8 1.0% 1.2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 85% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 15%  
2 0% 15%  
3 0% 15%  
4 7% 15%  
5 7% 8%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 76 100% 73–79 73–80 72–82 70–83
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 63 100% 60–66 60–68 59–68 58–70
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 61 100% 58–63 57–64 56–65 54–66
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 58 99.9% 55–61 55–61 54–62 52–63
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 58 99.9% 55–61 55–61 54–62 52–63
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 56 98% 52–58 52–59 52–60 50–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 53 85% 50–56 49–56 49–57 48–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 47 8% 44–50 44–51 43–52 41–53
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 39 0% 36–42 35–42 35–43 33–44
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 37 0% 34–40 33–40 33–41 32–42
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 34 0% 31–37 31–37 30–38 29–39
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 31 0% 29–34 29–35 28–36 27–37
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 24 0% 21–26 21–27 20–27 20–28

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.4% 99.9%  
71 2% 99.5%  
72 2% 98%  
73 8% 96%  
74 10% 89%  
75 16% 78%  
76 18% 63% Median
77 18% 45%  
78 12% 26%  
79 7% 14% Last Result
80 3% 7%  
81 2% 5%  
82 1.3% 3%  
83 1.1% 1.2%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.9%  
58 0.6% 99.6%  
59 2% 99.0%  
60 8% 97% Last Result
61 17% 89%  
62 15% 72%  
63 11% 57% Median
64 20% 46%  
65 8% 27%  
66 10% 19%  
67 3% 8%  
68 4% 5%  
69 0.4% 1.4%  
70 0.6% 1.1%  
71 0.3% 0.4%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.4% 99.9%  
55 0.9% 99.4%  
56 2% 98.5%  
57 7% 97%  
58 8% 90%  
59 18% 82%  
60 13% 64% Median
61 19% 51%  
62 19% 32%  
63 7% 13%  
64 3% 6%  
65 2% 3% Last Result
66 0.5% 0.6%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9% Majority
52 0.4% 99.8%  
53 0.9% 99.4%  
54 3% 98%  
55 9% 96%  
56 10% 87% Last Result
57 17% 76%  
58 18% 59% Median
59 12% 42%  
60 18% 30%  
61 7% 12%  
62 4% 5%  
63 0.5% 1.0%  
64 0.4% 0.5%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9% Majority
52 0.4% 99.8%  
53 0.9% 99.4%  
54 3% 98%  
55 9% 96%  
56 10% 87% Last Result
57 17% 76%  
58 18% 59% Median
59 12% 42%  
60 18% 30%  
61 7% 12%  
62 4% 5%  
63 0.5% 1.0%  
64 0.4% 0.5%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.2% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 1.1% 99.6%  
51 0.7% 98% Majority
52 10% 98%  
53 10% 88% Last Result
54 16% 78%  
55 12% 62% Median
56 22% 50%  
57 7% 28%  
58 15% 21%  
59 3% 6%  
60 1.1% 3%  
61 1.2% 2%  
62 0.3% 0.5%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100% Last Result
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.9% 99.7%  
49 5% 98.8%  
50 9% 94%  
51 11% 85% Majority
52 17% 74%  
53 11% 57% Median
54 20% 46%  
55 12% 26%  
56 9% 14%  
57 3% 5%  
58 0.7% 2%  
59 0.6% 0.9%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.3% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.7%  
42 0.7% 99.5%  
43 3% 98.8%  
44 8% 95%  
45 9% 88%  
46 10% 79% Last Result
47 20% 69% Median
48 20% 50%  
49 17% 30%  
50 5% 13%  
51 4% 8% Majority
52 3% 4%  
53 0.5% 0.6%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.8%  
34 0.7% 99.5%  
35 4% 98.8%  
36 7% 94%  
37 15% 87%  
38 18% 72%  
39 12% 54% Median
40 16% 42%  
41 12% 27%  
42 11% 14%  
43 2% 4%  
44 1.0% 1.3%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.1% 99.7%  
32 0.7% 99.6%  
33 5% 98.9%  
34 16% 94%  
35 8% 78%  
36 19% 69%  
37 15% 51% Median
38 14% 35%  
39 11% 22%  
40 6% 10%  
41 4% 5%  
42 0.6% 0.8%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.5% 99.9%  
30 4% 99.4%  
31 8% 96%  
32 16% 88%  
33 12% 72%  
34 23% 61% Median
35 17% 38%  
36 8% 21%  
37 10% 13%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.7% 1.1%  
40 0.3% 0.4%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 0.9% 99.8%  
28 2% 99.0%  
29 11% 97%  
30 21% 86%  
31 15% 65%  
32 15% 50% Median
33 14% 34%  
34 14% 20%  
35 3% 6%  
36 2% 3% Last Result
37 0.8% 1.2%  
38 0.3% 0.4%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 4% 99.8%  
21 13% 96%  
22 11% 83%  
23 10% 72%  
24 26% 62% Median
25 21% 36%  
26 10% 15%  
27 4% 5%  
28 0.4% 0.7%  
29 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
30 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations