Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS for ERR, 17–27 January 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 25.0% 23.1–27.0% 22.6–27.6% 22.1–28.1% 21.3–29.1%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 24.0% 22.2–26.0% 21.6–26.6% 21.2–27.1% 20.3–28.1%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 17.9% 16.3–19.8% 15.9–20.3% 15.5–20.7% 14.7–21.6%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 10.0% 8.8–11.5% 8.4–11.9% 8.1–12.3% 7.6–13.0%
Eesti 200 4.4% 8.0% 6.9–9.4% 6.6–9.8% 6.4–10.1% 5.9–10.8%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.1% 6.0–8.4% 5.7–8.7% 5.5–9.0% 5.0–9.7%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.0% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2% 2.0–4.4% 1.7–4.9%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0% 0.4–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 29 27–31 26–32 25–33 24–34
Eesti Keskerakond 26 26 25–30 25–30 24–31 23–32
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 20 18–23 17–23 17–23 16–24
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 10 9–12 8–12 8–13 7–14
Eesti 200 0 8 6–8 6–10 6–11 5–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 7 6–8 5–8 5–9 5–9
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 0.6% 99.7%  
25 2% 99.1%  
26 5% 97%  
27 8% 92%  
28 19% 84%  
29 27% 65% Median
30 7% 38%  
31 24% 31%  
32 2% 7%  
33 4% 4%  
34 0.7% 0.8% Last Result
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.4% 99.9%  
23 0.8% 99.5%  
24 2% 98.7%  
25 8% 97%  
26 43% 89% Last Result, Median
27 22% 46%  
28 8% 24%  
29 5% 16%  
30 7% 10%  
31 3% 4%  
32 0.9% 1.3%  
33 0.4% 0.4%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 2% 99.7%  
17 6% 98%  
18 20% 92%  
19 17% 73% Last Result
20 25% 55% Median
21 11% 30%  
22 6% 19%  
23 11% 13%  
24 1.3% 2%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.9% 100%  
8 6% 99.1%  
9 29% 93%  
10 26% 64% Last Result, Median
11 17% 39%  
12 18% 21%  
13 3% 3%  
14 0.7% 0.7%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 1.4% 100%  
6 9% 98.6%  
7 36% 90%  
8 44% 54% Median
9 4% 10%  
10 3% 6%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 0% 99.6%  
2 0% 99.6%  
3 0% 99.6%  
4 0.1% 99.6%  
5 6% 99.6%  
6 17% 94%  
7 52% 77% Median
8 21% 25%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.4% 0.5%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0% 0.2%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 76 100% 74–78 73–79 72–80 70–81
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 56 99.5% 53–59 52–59 52–61 51–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 56 98% 53–59 52–59 51–59 49–60
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 53 93% 51–57 50–57 49–58 48–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 49 30% 46–52 45–52 44–53 43–54
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 46 4% 44–49 43–50 42–51 42–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 47 1.3% 44–48 43–49 42–50 40–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 47 1.3% 44–48 43–49 42–50 40–51
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 44 0.1% 42–47 41–48 40–48 39–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 40 0% 37–41 36–43 35–43 34–45
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 37 0% 35–40 35–40 34–41 33–43
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 36 0% 34–38 33–39 32–39 30–41
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 30 0% 28–32 27–34 26–34 25–34

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.9%  
70 0.7% 99.6%  
71 0.9% 98.9%  
72 2% 98%  
73 4% 96%  
74 20% 92%  
75 17% 72% Median
76 15% 55%  
77 19% 40%  
78 14% 21%  
79 4% 7% Last Result
80 2% 3%  
81 0.6% 0.9%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.4% 99.9%  
51 0.9% 99.5% Majority
52 4% 98.6%  
53 6% 94%  
54 5% 89%  
55 31% 83% Median
56 10% 52%  
57 17% 42%  
58 14% 25%  
59 7% 11%  
60 1.3% 4% Last Result
61 2% 3%  
62 0.4% 0.6%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.4% 99.8%  
50 1.0% 99.4%  
51 2% 98% Majority
52 4% 97%  
53 6% 93%  
54 6% 87%  
55 21% 82%  
56 22% 61% Median
57 12% 39%  
58 15% 27%  
59 10% 12%  
60 1.4% 2%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 1.1% 99.8%  
49 2% 98.7%  
50 3% 97%  
51 6% 93% Majority
52 25% 88%  
53 15% 63% Median
54 10% 48%  
55 13% 37%  
56 13% 25%  
57 8% 12% Last Result
58 3% 4%  
59 0.9% 1.3%  
60 0.3% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.4% 99.9%  
43 0.4% 99.5%  
44 2% 99.1%  
45 4% 97%  
46 5% 94%  
47 10% 89%  
48 21% 79%  
49 22% 58% Median
50 6% 36%  
51 17% 30% Majority
52 10% 13%  
53 2% 3% Last Result
54 0.6% 0.9%  
55 0.2% 0.3%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 2% 99.6%  
43 2% 97%  
44 5% 95%  
45 21% 90% Last Result
46 26% 69% Median
47 11% 44%  
48 9% 33%  
49 14% 24%  
50 5% 9%  
51 3% 4% Majority
52 1.2% 2%  
53 0.2% 0.4%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.3% 99.7%  
41 2% 99.3%  
42 2% 98%  
43 4% 96%  
44 9% 92%  
45 16% 82%  
46 7% 67% Median
47 28% 59%  
48 23% 31%  
49 5% 8%  
50 2% 3%  
51 1.1% 1.3% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.3% 99.7%  
41 2% 99.3%  
42 2% 98%  
43 4% 96%  
44 9% 92%  
45 16% 82%  
46 7% 67% Median
47 28% 59%  
48 23% 31%  
49 5% 8%  
50 2% 3%  
51 1.1% 1.3% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.3% 99.8%  
39 0.7% 99.5%  
40 2% 98.9%  
41 5% 97%  
42 24% 92%  
43 6% 68% Median
44 21% 62%  
45 15% 41%  
46 12% 26%  
47 8% 14%  
48 3% 6% Last Result
49 2% 2%  
50 0.6% 0.7%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 0.7% 99.7%  
35 3% 99.0%  
36 5% 96%  
37 8% 91%  
38 16% 83%  
39 15% 67% Median
40 21% 52%  
41 22% 31%  
42 3% 9%  
43 5% 6%  
44 0.9% 2% Last Result
45 0.5% 0.6%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.8%  
33 2% 99.7%  
34 3% 98%  
35 24% 95%  
36 9% 71% Last Result, Median
37 21% 62%  
38 22% 42%  
39 10% 20%  
40 6% 11%  
41 3% 5%  
42 1.0% 2%  
43 0.8% 0.9%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 0.5% 99.7%  
31 1.0% 99.2%  
32 3% 98%  
33 3% 96%  
34 11% 92%  
35 8% 81%  
36 35% 74% Median
37 8% 38%  
38 25% 30%  
39 4% 6%  
40 1.3% 2%  
41 0.4% 0.5%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.5% 99.7%  
26 3% 99.3%  
27 4% 96%  
28 19% 92%  
29 18% 73% Last Result
30 7% 55% Median
31 24% 48%  
32 16% 24%  
33 2% 8%  
34 6% 6%  
35 0.2% 0.4%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations