Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor, 1–31 January 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 30.0% 28.0–32.0% 27.5–32.6% 27.0–33.1% 26.1–34.1%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 17.0% 15.5–18.8% 15.1–19.3% 14.7–19.7% 14.0–20.5%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 16.0% 14.5–17.7% 14.1–18.2% 13.7–18.6% 13.0–19.4%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 14.0% 12.5–15.6% 12.1–16.0% 11.8–16.4% 11.2–17.2%
Eesti 200 4.4% 9.0% 7.9–10.4% 7.6–10.8% 7.3–11.1% 6.8–11.8%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 8.0% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7% 6.4–10.0% 5.9–10.7%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.0% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 2.0–4.3% 1.8–4.8%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0% 0.4–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 35 32–37 31–38 31–38 30–40
Eesti Keskerakond 26 18 16–20 16–21 15–21 14–22
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 17 15–19 15–20 14–20 14–21
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 15 13–17 12–17 12–17 11–18
Eesti 200 0 9 7–10 7–11 7–11 6–12
Erakond Isamaa 12 8 6–9 6–9 6–10 5–11
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.9%  
30 1.3% 99.7%  
31 3% 98%  
32 7% 95%  
33 17% 88%  
34 19% 71% Last Result
35 19% 52% Median
36 16% 33%  
37 11% 17%  
38 4% 6%  
39 1.5% 2%  
40 0.4% 0.6%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.5% 100%  
15 3% 99.5%  
16 8% 97%  
17 22% 89%  
18 21% 67% Median
19 27% 46%  
20 12% 19%  
21 6% 8%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.4% 99.9%  
14 2% 99.5%  
15 10% 97%  
16 19% 88%  
17 33% 69% Median
18 21% 36%  
19 9% 15% Last Result
20 4% 6%  
21 1.3% 2%  
22 0.3% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100% Last Result
11 0.8% 99.9%  
12 4% 99.1%  
13 15% 95%  
14 28% 80%  
15 25% 51% Median
16 16% 27%  
17 9% 11%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.4% 0.4%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 1.1% 100%  
7 12% 98.8%  
8 37% 87%  
9 29% 50% Median
10 14% 21%  
11 6% 7%  
12 1.2% 1.4%  
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.0% 100%  
6 12% 99.0%  
7 32% 87%  
8 34% 55% Median
9 16% 21%  
10 4% 5%  
11 0.6% 0.6%  
12 0% 0.1% Last Result
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0.1% 0.2%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 70 100% 68–72 67–73 66–74 65–75
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 59 100% 57–62 56–62 55–63 54–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 57 99.9% 54–59 54–60 53–61 52–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 57 99.9% 54–59 54–60 53–61 52–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 53 88% 50–56 50–56 49–57 48–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 52 73% 49–54 49–55 48–55 46–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 49 27% 47–52 46–52 45–53 44–54
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 43 0% 41–46 40–46 39–47 38–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 42 0% 40–45 39–46 38–46 37–47
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 41 0% 38–43 38–44 37–44 36–46
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 35 0% 33–38 32–38 32–39 31–40
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 33 0% 31–35 30–36 29–37 28–38
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 32 0% 29–34 29–35 28–35 27–37

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.2% 100%  
65 0.8% 99.7%  
66 2% 98.9%  
67 5% 97%  
68 12% 92%  
69 20% 80%  
70 25% 61% Median
71 10% 36%  
72 17% 26%  
73 6% 9%  
74 2% 3%  
75 0.7% 0.8%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.2% 100%  
54 0.9% 99.8%  
55 2% 98.9%  
56 4% 97%  
57 10% 93%  
58 15% 83%  
59 22% 68%  
60 12% 46% Median
61 17% 33%  
62 12% 16%  
63 3% 5%  
64 2% 2%  
65 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9% Majority
52 0.8% 99.6%  
53 2% 98.7%  
54 8% 96%  
55 10% 88%  
56 16% 78% Last Result
57 22% 62%  
58 23% 40% Median
59 8% 17%  
60 5% 9%  
61 3% 3%  
62 0.7% 0.9%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9% Majority
52 0.8% 99.6%  
53 2% 98.7%  
54 8% 96%  
55 10% 88%  
56 16% 78% Last Result
57 22% 62%  
58 23% 40% Median
59 8% 17%  
60 5% 9%  
61 3% 3%  
62 0.7% 0.9%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.4% 99.9%  
48 1.2% 99.6%  
49 3% 98%  
50 8% 96%  
51 11% 88% Majority
52 17% 76%  
53 24% 60% Median
54 14% 36%  
55 11% 22%  
56 7% 10%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.8% 1.1%  
59 0.3% 0.3%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.6% 99.9%  
47 2% 99.3%  
48 3% 98%  
49 7% 95%  
50 16% 88%  
51 21% 73% Majority
52 14% 52% Median
53 16% 37% Last Result
54 13% 21%  
55 6% 8%  
56 2% 2%  
57 0.6% 0.8%  
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.6% 99.7% Last Result
45 2% 99.1%  
46 6% 97%  
47 9% 91%  
48 16% 82%  
49 20% 66%  
50 20% 46% Median
51 15% 27% Majority
52 8% 12%  
53 3% 4%  
54 1.1% 1.5%  
55 0.3% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.6% 99.8%  
39 2% 99.2%  
40 6% 97%  
41 9% 91%  
42 21% 82%  
43 23% 60% Median
44 13% 37%  
45 14% 25%  
46 7% 11%  
47 2% 4%  
48 1.1% 1.4%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.6% 99.8%  
38 2% 99.2%  
39 5% 97%  
40 11% 92%  
41 19% 81%  
42 13% 62%  
43 19% 49% Median
44 19% 30%  
45 6% 11%  
46 4% 5% Last Result
47 1.2% 2%  
48 0.4% 0.5%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.9%  
36 1.4% 99.6%  
37 3% 98%  
38 10% 95%  
39 13% 85%  
40 21% 72%  
41 19% 51% Median
42 14% 32%  
43 13% 18%  
44 3% 6%  
45 2% 2%  
46 0.6% 0.8%  
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 1.2% 99.6%  
32 4% 98%  
33 9% 95%  
34 17% 86%  
35 23% 69% Median
36 20% 46%  
37 13% 26%  
38 9% 14%  
39 4% 5%  
40 0.9% 1.3%  
41 0.4% 0.4%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.8% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.1%  
30 5% 97%  
31 17% 92%  
32 14% 75%  
33 28% 61% Median
34 8% 32%  
35 16% 24%  
36 6% 9% Last Result
37 2% 3%  
38 0.7% 0.8%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 1.0% 99.8%  
28 2% 98.8%  
29 7% 97% Last Result
30 13% 89%  
31 23% 76%  
32 19% 53% Median
33 14% 34%  
34 14% 20%  
35 4% 6%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.5% 0.6%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations