Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 28 January–3 February 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 35.1% 33.2–37.1% 32.7–37.6% 32.2–38.1% 31.3–39.1%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 20.8% 19.2–22.5% 18.8–23.0% 18.4–23.4% 17.7–24.3%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 15.6% 14.2–17.2% 13.8–17.6% 13.5–18.0% 12.8–18.8%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 10.2% 9.1–11.5% 8.7–11.9% 8.5–12.2% 8.0–12.9%
Eesti 200 4.4% 8.5% 7.5–9.7% 7.2–10.1% 6.9–10.4% 6.5–11.0%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.6–4.3%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 40 39–41 38–43 37–43 36–45
Eesti Keskerakond 26 22 20–23 20–24 20–25 19–26
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 16 15–18 14–18 14–18 13–19
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 10 9–11 8–12 8–12 8–13
Eesti 200 0 8 7–9 7–9 6–10 6–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 4–6 4–7 0–7 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.7% 99.7%  
37 3% 99.0%  
38 2% 96%  
39 13% 94%  
40 56% 81% Median
41 17% 25%  
42 2% 7%  
43 3% 5%  
44 0.9% 2%  
45 0.8% 1.1%  
46 0.3% 0.3%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.4% 99.9%  
19 2% 99.5%  
20 10% 98%  
21 17% 88%  
22 34% 70% Median
23 27% 36%  
24 5% 9%  
25 2% 4%  
26 1.4% 2% Last Result
27 0.2% 0.3%  
28 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.7% 99.9%  
14 6% 99.1%  
15 6% 93%  
16 64% 87% Median
17 11% 24%  
18 11% 12%  
19 1.5% 2% Last Result
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.4% 100%  
8 7% 99.6%  
9 33% 92%  
10 21% 59% Last Result, Median
11 33% 38%  
12 4% 5%  
13 1.2% 1.3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.2% 100%  
6 4% 99.8%  
7 41% 96%  
8 40% 54% Median
9 11% 14%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.4% 0.5%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 0% 95%  
2 0% 95%  
3 0% 95%  
4 6% 95%  
5 65% 89% Median
6 15% 23%  
7 8% 8%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 78 100% 76–80 76–81 75–83 74–85
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 62 100% 60–64 59–65 58–66 58–69
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 61 100% 60–63 59–64 58–64 56–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 56 99.9% 55–59 54–59 53–59 52–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 56 99.2% 53–56 52–57 52–58 50–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 56 99.2% 53–56 52–57 52–58 50–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 50 44% 48–52 48–53 47–54 46–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 45 0.3% 44–46 42–46 42–48 40–50
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 43 0% 42–45 41–45 39–45 37–47
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 38 0% 37–39 36–40 35–41 34–43
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 37 0% 35–38 34–40 34–40 32–41
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 32 0% 30–33 30–34 29–35 28–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 26 0% 24–28 23–28 23–29 22–30

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.2% 100%  
74 0.6% 99.8%  
75 2% 99.2%  
76 12% 97%  
77 6% 85%  
78 32% 79% Median
79 37% 48% Last Result
80 5% 11%  
81 2% 6%  
82 0.7% 3%  
83 0.7% 3%  
84 0.9% 2%  
85 1.1% 1.2%  
86 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.9%  
58 2% 99.6%  
59 3% 97%  
60 11% 95% Last Result
61 8% 84%  
62 39% 76% Median
63 27% 38%  
64 2% 11%  
65 5% 9%  
66 1.4% 4%  
67 0.5% 2%  
68 0.6% 2%  
69 0.8% 0.9%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.2% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.8%  
57 1.1% 99.5%  
58 3% 98%  
59 4% 96%  
60 9% 92%  
61 51% 83% Median
62 14% 32%  
63 9% 18%  
64 8% 10%  
65 1.3% 2% Last Result
66 0.3% 0.3%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9% Majority
52 0.7% 99.7%  
53 3% 99.0% Last Result
54 4% 96%  
55 12% 92%  
56 54% 79% Median
57 3% 26%  
58 11% 22%  
59 9% 11%  
60 1.2% 2%  
61 0.6% 1.1%  
62 0.3% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.7% 99.8%  
51 1.2% 99.2% Majority
52 4% 98%  
53 6% 94%  
54 26% 89%  
55 12% 63% Median
56 42% 51% Last Result
57 4% 8%  
58 3% 4%  
59 1.3% 2%  
60 0.1% 0.4%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.7% 99.8%  
51 1.2% 99.2% Majority
52 4% 98%  
53 6% 94%  
54 26% 89%  
55 12% 63% Median
56 42% 51% Last Result
57 4% 8%  
58 3% 4%  
59 1.3% 2%  
60 0.1% 0.4%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100% Last Result
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.7% 99.7%  
47 4% 99.0%  
48 6% 95%  
49 31% 89%  
50 14% 58% Median
51 34% 44% Majority
52 5% 11%  
53 3% 6%  
54 1.2% 3%  
55 1.2% 1.4%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.4% 99.9%  
40 0.6% 99.6%  
41 1.0% 99.0%  
42 4% 98%  
43 3% 94%  
44 5% 91%  
45 50% 86% Median
46 31% 36% Last Result
47 1.1% 4%  
48 1.2% 3%  
49 0.8% 2%  
50 0.7% 1.0%  
51 0.3% 0.3% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0.6% 99.9%  
38 0.5% 99.3%  
39 2% 98.9%  
40 1.1% 97%  
41 2% 96%  
42 9% 94%  
43 43% 85% Median
44 32% 42%  
45 8% 10%  
46 1.2% 2%  
47 0.3% 0.8%  
48 0.3% 0.5%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.4% 99.9%  
34 1.1% 99.5%  
35 0.9% 98%  
36 4% 97%  
37 12% 94%  
38 45% 82% Median
39 30% 37%  
40 3% 7%  
41 2% 5%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0.4% 0.6%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 1.0% 99.7%  
33 0.9% 98.8%  
34 3% 98%  
35 16% 94%  
36 3% 78%  
37 28% 75% Median
38 40% 47%  
39 2% 7%  
40 4% 5%  
41 0.8% 1.0%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 1.3% 99.8%  
29 2% 98%  
30 16% 97%  
31 11% 81%  
32 28% 70% Median
33 32% 41%  
34 5% 10%  
35 4% 4%  
36 0.6% 0.9% Last Result
37 0.2% 0.3%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0.5% 99.9%  
23 5% 99.5%  
24 5% 95%  
25 24% 89%  
26 21% 65% Median
27 30% 45%  
28 10% 14%  
29 4% 4% Last Result
30 0.4% 0.8%  
31 0.4% 0.4%  
32 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations