Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 4–11 February 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 33.8% 31.9–35.8% 31.4–36.3% 30.9–36.8% 30.0–37.7%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 20.0% 18.4–21.7% 18.0–22.2% 17.6–22.6% 16.9–23.4%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 17.5% 16.0–19.1% 15.6–19.6% 15.3–20.0% 14.6–20.8%
Eesti 200 4.4% 9.2% 8.1–10.5% 7.8–10.8% 7.6–11.2% 7.1–11.8%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.3% 6.3–8.5% 6.1–8.8% 5.8–9.1% 5.4–9.7%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 6.7% 5.8–7.8% 5.5–8.1% 5.3–8.4% 4.9–9.0%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 39 37–41 36–42 35–43 34–44
Eesti Keskerakond 26 22 20–24 19–24 19–25 18–26
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 19 17–20 16–21 16–22 15–22
Eesti 200 0 9 8–10 7–11 7–11 7–12
Erakond Isamaa 12 7 6–8 5–8 5–9 5–9
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 0–9
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.9% Last Result
35 2% 99.4%  
36 7% 97%  
37 12% 91%  
38 15% 79%  
39 25% 64% Median
40 19% 39%  
41 11% 20%  
42 5% 9%  
43 3% 3%  
44 0.7% 1.0%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 1.4% 99.7%  
19 6% 98%  
20 16% 92%  
21 23% 76%  
22 25% 53% Median
23 16% 29%  
24 9% 12%  
25 3% 4%  
26 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 1.1% 99.9%  
16 6% 98.8%  
17 16% 93%  
18 26% 77%  
19 26% 51% Last Result, Median
20 15% 25%  
21 7% 9%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.4% 0.4%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.4% 100%  
7 7% 99.6%  
8 27% 92%  
9 39% 66% Median
10 22% 27%  
11 5% 6%  
12 0.7% 0.8%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0.1% 99.9%  
5 7% 99.8%  
6 32% 93%  
7 42% 61% Median
8 16% 19%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.9% 100%  
1 0% 99.1%  
2 0% 99.1%  
3 0% 99.1%  
4 0.9% 99.1%  
5 24% 98%  
6 41% 74% Median
7 26% 32%  
8 6% 7%  
9 0.5% 0.5%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.5%  
2 0% 0.5%  
3 0% 0.5%  
4 0.3% 0.5%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 79 100% 77–81 77–82 76–82 75–85
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 64 100% 62–66 61–67 61–68 60–70
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 61 100% 58–63 58–64 57–64 56–66
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 58 100% 55–60 54–61 54–62 53–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 52 76% 49–54 49–55 48–56 47–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 52 76% 49–54 49–55 48–56 47–57
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 47 4% 45–49 44–50 43–51 42–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 46 0.9% 43–48 43–49 42–50 41–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 45 0.3% 43–48 42–48 41–49 40–50
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 40 0% 38–43 37–43 37–44 35–45
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 34 0% 32–37 31–38 31–38 29–39
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 28 0% 26–30 25–31 24–31 23–32
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 25 0% 23–27 22–27 21–28 20–29

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.2% 100%  
75 1.0% 99.7%  
76 4% 98.7%  
77 8% 95%  
78 18% 87%  
79 24% 69% Last Result
80 25% 45% Median
81 13% 20%  
82 4% 6%  
83 1.4% 2%  
84 0.3% 0.8%  
85 0.4% 0.5%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.3% 99.9%  
60 1.3% 99.6%  
61 6% 98%  
62 11% 92%  
63 14% 81%  
64 18% 67%  
65 20% 50% Last Result, Median
66 19% 29%  
67 5% 10%  
68 3% 4%  
69 1.1% 2%  
70 0.4% 0.6%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 1.1% 99.7%  
57 3% 98.6%  
58 7% 95%  
59 14% 88%  
60 22% 74% Last Result
61 18% 52% Median
62 20% 35%  
63 10% 15%  
64 4% 6%  
65 1.3% 2%  
66 0.6% 0.8%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Majority
52 0.4% 99.9%  
53 1.0% 99.6% Last Result
54 5% 98.6%  
55 6% 94%  
56 20% 87%  
57 9% 68%  
58 31% 59% Median
59 12% 28%  
60 11% 16%  
61 3% 5%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.2% 0.4%  
64 0.2% 0.2%  
65 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.9% 99.7%  
48 3% 98.9%  
49 7% 96%  
50 13% 90%  
51 20% 76% Majority
52 20% 57% Median
53 18% 37%  
54 12% 20%  
55 5% 8%  
56 2% 3% Last Result
57 0.4% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.9% 99.7%  
48 3% 98.9%  
49 7% 96%  
50 13% 90%  
51 20% 76% Majority
52 20% 57% Median
53 18% 37%  
54 12% 20%  
55 5% 8%  
56 2% 3% Last Result
57 0.4% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.2% 100%  
42 0.8% 99.8%  
43 3% 99.0%  
44 6% 96%  
45 11% 90%  
46 22% 79%  
47 17% 57%  
48 19% 40% Median
49 12% 21%  
50 6% 9%  
51 3% 4% Majority
52 0.7% 0.9%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 1.1% 99.8%  
42 2% 98.7%  
43 9% 96%  
44 12% 87%  
45 17% 75%  
46 24% 58% Last Result, Median
47 17% 34%  
48 10% 17%  
49 4% 7%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.7% 0.9% Majority
52 0.2% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 0.5% 99.8%  
41 3% 99.2%  
42 5% 97%  
43 12% 92%  
44 19% 80% Last Result
45 20% 62% Median
46 19% 42%  
47 11% 22%  
48 8% 12%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.7% 1.0%  
51 0.2% 0.3% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.9%  
36 2% 99.5%  
37 5% 98%  
38 11% 93%  
39 17% 82%  
40 20% 65%  
41 20% 45% Median
42 14% 25%  
43 7% 11%  
44 3% 4%  
45 0.9% 1.2% Last Result
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.4% 99.9%  
30 0.7% 99.5%  
31 4% 98.7%  
32 7% 95%  
33 16% 88%  
34 22% 71%  
35 22% 49% Median
36 14% 27%  
37 8% 13%  
38 4% 5%  
39 1.1% 1.4%  
40 0.3% 0.3%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.3% 99.9%  
23 0.7% 99.6%  
24 2% 98.9%  
25 6% 97%  
26 15% 91%  
27 21% 76%  
28 22% 54% Median
29 15% 32%  
30 11% 17%  
31 4% 6%  
32 1.3% 2%  
33 0.3% 0.3%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.3% 99.8%  
20 0.6% 99.5%  
21 2% 99.0%  
22 5% 97%  
23 13% 92%  
24 28% 79%  
25 23% 51% Median
26 15% 28%  
27 9% 13%  
28 3% 4%  
29 0.8% 0.9% Last Result
30 0.1% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations