Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS for ERR, 6–17 February 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 27.2% 25.3–29.3% 24.7–29.9% 24.3–30.4% 23.4–31.4%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 26.1% 24.2–28.2% 23.7–28.7% 23.2–29.3% 22.3–30.3%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 17.5% 15.8–19.3% 15.4–19.8% 15.0–20.2% 14.2–21.1%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 10.9% 9.6–12.4% 9.2–12.8% 8.9–13.2% 8.3–14.0%
Eesti 200 4.4% 9.8% 8.6–11.2% 8.2–11.7% 7.9–12.0% 7.4–12.8%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.4% 4.5–6.6% 4.3–7.0% 4.1–7.2% 3.7–7.8%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.2% 1.7–3.0% 1.5–3.3% 1.4–3.5% 1.2–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 30 28–33 27–33 27–34 25–36
Eesti Keskerakond 26 29 26–31 25–33 25–33 25–34
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 18 17–20 16–21 15–21 15–23
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 11 9–12 9–13 8–13 8–14
Eesti 200 0 9 8–11 8–11 7–12 7–13
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 0–6 0–6 0–7 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.6% 99.8%  
26 1.0% 99.2%  
27 5% 98%  
28 16% 93%  
29 19% 77%  
30 21% 58% Median
31 15% 37%  
32 10% 21%  
33 7% 12%  
34 3% 4% Last Result
35 1.1% 2%  
36 0.2% 0.6%  
37 0.4% 0.4%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.4% 99.9%  
25 5% 99.5%  
26 8% 95% Last Result
27 5% 87%  
28 18% 82%  
29 39% 64% Median
30 12% 25%  
31 3% 13%  
32 5% 10%  
33 5% 5%  
34 0.4% 0.6%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.3% 99.9%  
15 3% 99.6%  
16 5% 97%  
17 26% 92%  
18 32% 65% Median
19 19% 33% Last Result
20 8% 14%  
21 4% 6%  
22 1.4% 2%  
23 0.5% 0.6%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.3% 100%  
8 3% 99.7%  
9 18% 97%  
10 25% 79% Last Result
11 29% 54% Median
12 18% 25%  
13 6% 8%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.4% 100%  
7 4% 99.6%  
8 16% 96%  
9 31% 80% Median
10 28% 49%  
11 16% 20%  
12 3% 4%  
13 0.8% 0.9%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 21% 100%  
1 0% 79%  
2 0% 79%  
3 0% 79%  
4 15% 79%  
5 53% 64% Median
6 9% 11%  
7 2% 3%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 76 100% 74–80 74–81 73–82 72–83
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 58 100% 56–62 55–63 55–64 53–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 52 76% 49–55 48–55 47–56 46–58
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 51 63% 48–53 47–54 46–55 44–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 48 13% 45–51 45–52 44–53 43–55
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 47 9% 44–50 43–51 43–52 41–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 45 0.4% 41–48 40–48 39–49 38–50
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 43 0.1% 40–46 40–47 38–48 37–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 40 0% 38–44 37–45 37–45 36–48
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 39 0% 37–42 36–43 35–44 34–45
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 34 0% 31–37 29–37 29–38 27–40
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 29 0% 27–31 26–32 25–33 24–34

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.2% 100%  
72 1.1% 99.7%  
73 3% 98.7%  
74 12% 95%  
75 10% 83%  
76 23% 73%  
77 11% 50% Median
78 18% 39%  
79 4% 21% Last Result
80 8% 17%  
81 4% 9%  
82 3% 5%  
83 1.1% 2%  
84 0.3% 0.4%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.2% 100%  
53 0.5% 99.8%  
54 2% 99.3%  
55 4% 98%  
56 4% 93%  
57 11% 90%  
58 30% 78%  
59 16% 48% Median
60 11% 32% Last Result
61 8% 21%  
62 8% 13%  
63 2% 5%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.9% 1.3%  
66 0.2% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.3% 99.8%  
47 3% 99.4%  
48 2% 96%  
49 4% 94%  
50 14% 90%  
51 10% 76% Majority
52 25% 66%  
53 12% 40% Median
54 18% 29%  
55 6% 10%  
56 3% 4%  
57 0.7% 1.3%  
58 0.3% 0.6%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.7% 99.9%  
45 0.5% 99.2%  
46 3% 98.7%  
47 4% 96%  
48 6% 92%  
49 11% 86%  
50 12% 76%  
51 26% 63% Majority
52 18% 38% Median
53 11% 20%  
54 5% 9%  
55 2% 4%  
56 1.2% 2%  
57 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.6% 99.8%  
44 2% 99.2%  
45 11% 97%  
46 8% 86%  
47 22% 78%  
48 14% 55% Median
49 15% 41%  
50 13% 27%  
51 6% 13% Majority
52 2% 7%  
53 3% 5% Last Result
54 1.0% 2%  
55 0.2% 0.5%  
56 0.3% 0.3%  
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.6% 99.9%  
42 0.9% 99.3%  
43 5% 98%  
44 7% 94%  
45 10% 87% Last Result
46 21% 77%  
47 24% 56% Median
48 11% 32%  
49 8% 21%  
50 4% 13%  
51 6% 9% Majority
52 2% 3%  
53 0.7% 1.0%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 1.3% 99.7%  
39 3% 98%  
40 2% 96%  
41 5% 94%  
42 6% 89%  
43 6% 84%  
44 15% 78%  
45 35% 63%  
46 10% 27% Median
47 6% 17%  
48 7% 11%  
49 3% 4%  
50 0.6% 1.0%  
51 0.2% 0.4% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.8%  
37 0.6% 99.6%  
38 2% 99.0%  
39 2% 97%  
40 6% 95%  
41 13% 90%  
42 11% 77%  
43 17% 66%  
44 12% 48%  
45 15% 36% Median
46 14% 21%  
47 4% 7%  
48 2% 3% Last Result
49 0.4% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.9%  
36 1.1% 99.5%  
37 4% 98%  
38 7% 95%  
39 9% 87%  
40 37% 78%  
41 14% 41% Median
42 8% 27%  
43 9% 20%  
44 4% 11% Last Result
45 4% 6%  
46 1.2% 2%  
47 0.6% 1.2%  
48 0.5% 0.5%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 2% 99.5%  
36 3% 97% Last Result
37 15% 94%  
38 14% 79%  
39 16% 66%  
40 17% 50% Median
41 18% 32%  
42 6% 14%  
43 5% 9%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.5% 0.8%  
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 0.3% 99.7%  
28 2% 99.4%  
29 4% 98%  
30 3% 93%  
31 5% 91%  
32 5% 86%  
33 17% 81%  
34 18% 64%  
35 27% 46% Median
36 4% 19%  
37 11% 15%  
38 3% 4%  
39 0.5% 1.2%  
40 0.5% 0.7%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.7% 99.9%  
25 2% 99.3%  
26 6% 97%  
27 17% 91%  
28 15% 74%  
29 35% 59% Last Result, Median
30 9% 24%  
31 6% 15%  
32 6% 9%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.4% 0.7%  
35 0.3% 0.3%  
36 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations