Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 13–18 February 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 30.9% 29.1–32.8% 28.5–33.4% 28.1–33.8% 27.3–34.8%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 22.4% 20.8–24.2% 20.3–24.7% 19.9–25.1% 19.2–26.0%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.7–20.5% 15.1–21.3%
Eesti 200 4.4% 9.8% 8.7–11.1% 8.4–11.5% 8.1–11.8% 7.6–12.5%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.9% 6.9–9.1% 6.6–9.4% 6.4–9.7% 5.9–10.3%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 35 33–37 33–37 32–38 31–40
Eesti Keskerakond 26 25 23–27 22–27 22–28 20–29
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 19 18–21 17–22 16–23 16–23
Eesti 200 0 10 9–11 8–11 8–11 7–12
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 6–9 6–9 6–10 5–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 4–6 4–6 0–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.6% 99.8%  
32 3% 99.3%  
33 10% 97%  
34 15% 87% Last Result
35 43% 72% Median
36 16% 29%  
37 9% 13%  
38 2% 4%  
39 1.0% 2%  
40 0.5% 0.8%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.5% 100%  
21 2% 99.4%  
22 4% 98%  
23 21% 94%  
24 18% 73%  
25 33% 55% Median
26 10% 22% Last Result
27 9% 12%  
28 2% 4%  
29 1.2% 1.4%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 3% 99.7%  
17 4% 97%  
18 24% 93%  
19 37% 69% Last Result, Median
20 20% 31%  
21 3% 11%  
22 5% 8%  
23 3% 3%  
24 0.3% 0.3%  
25 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 2% 100%  
8 6% 98%  
9 15% 92%  
10 61% 76% Median
11 13% 15%  
12 1.5% 2%  
13 0.4% 0.4%  
14 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 16% 98%  
7 48% 83% Median
8 20% 34%  
9 12% 15%  
10 2% 3% Last Result
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 0% 95%  
2 0% 95%  
3 0% 95%  
4 8% 95%  
5 50% 88% Median
6 34% 37%  
7 3% 4%  
8 0.6% 0.6%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 78 100% 77–81 76–82 75–84 75–86
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 60 100% 58–62 57–63 56–63 55–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 59 100% 57–61 57–62 56–63 54–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 54 99.0% 52–56 52–57 51–58 50–60
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 49 16% 47–51 47–51 45–52 44–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 48 4% 45–49 45–50 42–51 41–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 48 4% 45–49 45–50 42–51 41–53
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 44 0.4% 42–46 41–46 41–49 39–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 42 0% 40–44 40–45 39–46 38–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 40 0% 39–42 37–43 35–43 34–45
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 37 0% 35–39 34–40 34–41 31–41
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 32 0% 30–34 30–35 29–35 27–37
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 26 0% 25–29 24–29 23–30 22–31

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 2% 99.7%  
76 2% 97%  
77 11% 95%  
78 35% 84%  
79 28% 49% Last Result, Median
80 7% 21%  
81 8% 14%  
82 2% 6%  
83 0.9% 4%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.3% 0.9%  
86 0.6% 0.6%  
87 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.5% 99.9%  
56 4% 99.3%  
57 3% 95%  
58 18% 92%  
59 19% 74%  
60 33% 55% Last Result, Median
61 8% 22%  
62 5% 14%  
63 6% 8%  
64 1.1% 2%  
65 0.4% 0.9%  
66 0.3% 0.5%  
67 0.2% 0.2%  
68 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 1.0% 99.9%  
55 0.4% 98.9%  
56 3% 98%  
57 10% 95%  
58 8% 86%  
59 47% 77% Median
60 3% 30%  
61 19% 27%  
62 5% 8%  
63 1.2% 3%  
64 1.3% 2%  
65 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.7% 99.7%  
51 3% 99.0% Majority
52 11% 96%  
53 19% 85% Last Result
54 28% 66% Median
55 22% 38%  
56 7% 16%  
57 6% 10%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.9% 2%  
60 0.4% 0.7%  
61 0% 0.3%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.3% 99.8%  
44 0.7% 99.6%  
45 2% 98.9%  
46 2% 97%  
47 14% 95%  
48 22% 81%  
49 33% 59% Median
50 10% 26%  
51 11% 16% Majority
52 3% 5%  
53 1.0% 2%  
54 0.5% 0.5%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 2% 100%  
42 0.2% 98%  
43 0.3% 97%  
44 1.2% 97%  
45 8% 96%  
46 7% 88%  
47 30% 80% Median
48 25% 51%  
49 16% 26%  
50 6% 9%  
51 2% 4% Majority
52 0.6% 1.3%  
53 0.5% 0.7%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 2% 100%  
42 0.2% 98%  
43 0.3% 97%  
44 1.2% 97%  
45 8% 96%  
46 7% 88%  
47 30% 80% Median
48 25% 51%  
49 16% 26%  
50 6% 9%  
51 2% 4% Majority
52 0.6% 1.3%  
53 0.5% 0.7%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.5% 99.8%  
40 1.3% 99.4%  
41 4% 98%  
42 23% 94%  
43 16% 72%  
44 31% 55% Median
45 11% 24% Last Result
46 8% 13%  
47 1.2% 5%  
48 0.8% 4%  
49 0.7% 3%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0.4% 0.4% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.4% 99.9%  
39 3% 99.5%  
40 11% 96%  
41 5% 85%  
42 39% 80% Median
43 23% 42%  
44 10% 19% Last Result
45 5% 9%  
46 3% 4%  
47 0.6% 1.3%  
48 0.6% 0.7%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.4% 100%  
34 2% 99.5%  
35 0.7% 98%  
36 0.4% 97%  
37 3% 97%  
38 4% 94%  
39 24% 91%  
40 27% 67% Median
41 17% 40%  
42 17% 23%  
43 4% 6%  
44 1.2% 2%  
45 0.6% 0.8%  
46 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.3% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.7%  
32 0.6% 99.4%  
33 1.0% 98.8%  
34 3% 98%  
35 9% 95%  
36 21% 85%  
37 30% 65% Median
38 18% 35%  
39 10% 16%  
40 3% 6%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.6% 99.9%  
28 1.2% 99.4%  
29 2% 98%  
30 20% 97%  
31 12% 76%  
32 34% 64% Median
33 15% 31%  
34 10% 16%  
35 4% 6%  
36 2% 2% Last Result
37 0.4% 0.6%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.9% 100%  
23 2% 99.0%  
24 6% 97%  
25 13% 91%  
26 43% 78% Median
27 11% 35%  
28 10% 24%  
29 10% 14% Last Result
30 3% 4%  
31 0.8% 1.1%  
32 0.2% 0.3%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations