Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 19–26 February 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 33.2% 31.3–35.1% 30.8–35.7% 30.3–36.2% 29.5–37.1%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 19.3% 17.8–21.0% 17.3–21.5% 17.0–21.9% 16.3–22.7%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 18.4% 16.9–20.1% 16.5–20.5% 16.1–20.9% 15.4–21.7%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 10.2% 9.1–11.5% 8.7–11.9% 8.5–12.2% 8.0–12.9%
Eesti 200 4.4% 7.5% 6.5–8.7% 6.2–9.0% 6.0–9.3% 5.6–9.9%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.9% 6.0–8.0% 5.7–8.4% 5.5–8.6% 5.1–9.2%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 38 37–39 35–40 34–42 33–43
Eesti Keskerakond 26 21 19–22 18–23 18–24 17–25
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 19 18–21 17–22 17–22 16–23
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 10 8–11 8–12 8–12 7–13
Eesti 200 0 7 6–8 5–9 5–9 5–9
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 0–9
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.9% 100%  
34 4% 99.1% Last Result
35 4% 95%  
36 1.5% 92%  
37 9% 90%  
38 42% 81% Median
39 30% 38%  
40 5% 9%  
41 0.8% 4%  
42 3% 4%  
43 0.6% 0.8%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 2% 99.8%  
18 6% 98%  
19 18% 92%  
20 14% 74%  
21 39% 60% Median
22 13% 21%  
23 5% 8%  
24 3% 3%  
25 0.4% 0.5%  
26 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 1.4% 99.8%  
17 5% 98%  
18 18% 93%  
19 30% 75% Last Result, Median
20 20% 45%  
21 17% 25%  
22 6% 8%  
23 1.4% 2%  
24 0.2% 0.3%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.6% 100%  
8 14% 99.4%  
9 25% 85%  
10 36% 61% Last Result, Median
11 17% 25%  
12 7% 8%  
13 1.1% 1.2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 9% 99.9%  
6 33% 91%  
7 25% 58% Median
8 27% 33%  
9 6% 6%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100%  
1 0% 99.2%  
2 0% 99.2%  
3 0% 99.2%  
4 2% 99.2%  
5 18% 98%  
6 43% 80% Median
7 30% 36%  
8 5% 6%  
9 1.0% 1.1%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 78 100% 76–80 76–81 75–82 73–83
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 64 100% 62–66 61–67 60–67 59–68
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 59 100% 57–60 55–61 55–62 54–63
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 57 100% 55–60 55–61 54–61 52–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 54 97% 52–57 51–57 50–57 49–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 54 97% 52–57 51–57 50–57 49–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 48 8% 46–50 45–51 44–51 43–52
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 46 1.2% 44–48 43–49 43–50 41–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 44 0% 42–46 41–47 40–48 39–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 40 0% 38–42 37–43 36–44 36–45
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 37 0% 34–39 33–40 33–40 32–41
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 31 0% 28–33 28–33 27–33 26–35
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 29 0% 27–31 26–32 26–33 25–34

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.5% 99.9%  
74 2% 99.4%  
75 3% 98%  
76 11% 95%  
77 12% 84%  
78 36% 72% Median
79 16% 36% Last Result
80 13% 20%  
81 3% 7%  
82 3% 3%  
83 0.6% 0.6%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.8% 99.8%  
60 2% 99.0%  
61 6% 97%  
62 14% 91%  
63 24% 77% Median
64 21% 53%  
65 16% 33% Last Result
66 9% 16%  
67 5% 7%  
68 2% 2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 2% 99.8%  
55 3% 98%  
56 4% 95%  
57 7% 90%  
58 21% 83%  
59 38% 62% Median
60 15% 25% Last Result
61 5% 9%  
62 2% 4%  
63 2% 2%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100% Majority
52 0.6% 99.8%  
53 1.0% 99.2% Last Result
54 3% 98%  
55 6% 95%  
56 14% 89%  
57 30% 75% Median
58 12% 45%  
59 15% 33%  
60 13% 18%  
61 5% 5%  
62 0.4% 0.6%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.3% 100%  
49 0.7% 99.7%  
50 2% 99.0%  
51 6% 97% Majority
52 8% 91%  
53 21% 83%  
54 26% 63% Median
55 12% 37%  
56 12% 25% Last Result
57 11% 13%  
58 2% 2%  
59 0.3% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.3% 100%  
49 0.7% 99.7%  
50 2% 99.0%  
51 6% 97% Majority
52 8% 91%  
53 21% 83%  
54 26% 63% Median
55 12% 37%  
56 12% 25% Last Result
57 11% 13%  
58 2% 2%  
59 0.3% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.9% 99.7%  
44 3% 98.8% Last Result
45 3% 96%  
46 16% 93%  
47 11% 77%  
48 34% 66% Median
49 12% 32%  
50 12% 20%  
51 5% 8% Majority
52 2% 2%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.3% 99.8%  
42 1.1% 99.5%  
43 8% 98%  
44 5% 91%  
45 18% 86%  
46 26% 68% Median
47 19% 41%  
48 13% 22%  
49 7% 9%  
50 1.4% 3%  
51 0.9% 1.2% Majority
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.8%  
40 3% 99.3%  
41 3% 97%  
42 5% 93%  
43 13% 89%  
44 33% 76% Median
45 21% 43%  
46 13% 22% Last Result
47 6% 9%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.6% 0.8%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 2% 99.7%  
37 5% 97%  
38 7% 92%  
39 22% 85%  
40 30% 62% Median
41 14% 32%  
42 9% 18%  
43 4% 9%  
44 4% 5%  
45 0.3% 0.7% Last Result
46 0.3% 0.4%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 1.2% 99.8%  
33 8% 98.6%  
34 3% 91%  
35 11% 88%  
36 22% 77%  
37 33% 55% Median
38 7% 22%  
39 10% 15%  
40 4% 5%  
41 1.4% 2%  
42 0.1% 0.3%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.6% 99.9%  
27 3% 99.3%  
28 12% 96%  
29 14% 84%  
30 16% 69%  
31 35% 54% Median
32 8% 19%  
33 8% 10%  
34 1.0% 2%  
35 1.3% 1.5%  
36 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.5% 99.9%  
26 5% 99.3%  
27 11% 95%  
28 14% 84%  
29 22% 70% Last Result, Median
30 30% 48%  
31 12% 18%  
32 3% 6%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.9% 1.0%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations