Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 4–9 March 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 28.7% 26.9–30.6% 26.4–31.1% 26.0–31.6% 25.1–32.5%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.6% 17.8–24.5%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 16.4% 15.0–18.0% 14.6–18.4% 14.2–18.8% 13.6–19.6%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 10.2% 9.1–11.5% 8.7–11.9% 8.5–12.2% 8.0–12.9%
Eesti 200 4.4% 8.7% 7.7–10.0% 7.3–10.3% 7.1–10.6% 6.6–11.2%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.6–4.3%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 33 30–36 29–37 28–37 28–37
Eesti Keskerakond 26 23 21–25 20–26 20–27 19–28
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 16 15–19 15–20 15–20 14–22
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 10 9–11 8–12 8–13 7–13
Eesti 200 0 8 7–10 7–10 7–11 6–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 4–6 0–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.3% 99.9%  
28 3% 99.7%  
29 4% 97%  
30 7% 93%  
31 11% 86%  
32 12% 75%  
33 25% 63% Median
34 21% 38% Last Result
35 6% 17%  
36 6% 11%  
37 5% 6%  
38 0.4% 0.5%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 2% 99.8%  
20 5% 98%  
21 19% 93%  
22 7% 74%  
23 30% 67% Median
24 19% 37%  
25 9% 18%  
26 6% 9% Last Result
27 2% 3%  
28 0.6% 0.7%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 1.4% 99.8%  
15 15% 98%  
16 35% 84% Median
17 22% 49%  
18 12% 27%  
19 8% 15% Last Result
20 5% 7%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.6% 0.6%  
23 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.8% 100%  
8 6% 99.2%  
9 18% 93%  
10 41% 74% Last Result, Median
11 24% 33%  
12 7% 9%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.2% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 2% 99.9%  
7 20% 98%  
8 31% 78% Median
9 36% 47%  
10 7% 11%  
11 4% 4%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 0% 93%  
2 0% 93%  
3 0% 93%  
4 12% 93%  
5 45% 80% Median
6 30% 35%  
7 5% 5%  
8 0.5% 0.6%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 72 100% 70–76 69–78 69–78 68–80
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 56 98.9% 53–59 52–60 51–60 50–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 54 98% 52–58 51–59 51–59 50–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 49 27% 47–53 46–54 46–55 45–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 48 12% 45–51 44–52 43–53 42–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 48 12% 45–51 44–52 43–53 42–53
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 45 1.1% 42–48 41–49 41–50 38–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 43 0% 40–46 39–48 39–48 37–48
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 40 0% 37–43 37–44 36–45 35–46
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 38 0% 35–41 34–41 34–42 31–43
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 38 0% 35–41 34–41 33–42 31–42
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 33 0% 31–35 30–36 29–37 28–38
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 27 0% 25–29 24–30 24–31 23–33

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.2% 100%  
68 1.2% 99.8%  
69 4% 98.6%  
70 6% 95%  
71 22% 88%  
72 27% 66% Median
73 9% 39%  
74 13% 30%  
75 3% 17%  
76 6% 14%  
77 3% 8%  
78 4% 5%  
79 0.6% 1.3% Last Result
80 0.4% 0.6%  
81 0% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 1.0% 99.9%  
51 2% 98.9% Majority
52 4% 97%  
53 10% 92%  
54 6% 83%  
55 25% 76%  
56 14% 52% Median
57 15% 38%  
58 11% 23%  
59 5% 12%  
60 5% 7% Last Result
61 1.2% 2%  
62 0.5% 0.7%  
63 0% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.7%  
50 1.4% 99.5%  
51 5% 98% Majority
52 6% 94%  
53 19% 88%  
54 22% 69% Median
55 22% 47%  
56 5% 25%  
57 9% 20%  
58 5% 11%  
59 5% 6%  
60 1.2% 2%  
61 0.3% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 1.3% 99.7%  
46 4% 98%  
47 10% 95%  
48 13% 85%  
49 25% 71% Median
50 19% 46%  
51 8% 27% Majority
52 5% 19%  
53 6% 14% Last Result
54 5% 8%  
55 3% 3%  
56 0.4% 0.6%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.1% 99.8%  
42 1.2% 99.7%  
43 3% 98%  
44 3% 96%  
45 12% 93%  
46 6% 82%  
47 17% 76%  
48 18% 58% Median
49 18% 41%  
50 11% 23%  
51 5% 12% Majority
52 4% 7%  
53 3% 4%  
54 0.3% 0.4%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.1% 99.8%  
42 1.2% 99.7%  
43 3% 98%  
44 3% 96%  
45 12% 93%  
46 6% 82%  
47 17% 76%  
48 18% 58% Median
49 18% 41%  
50 11% 23%  
51 5% 12% Majority
52 4% 7%  
53 3% 4%  
54 0.3% 0.4%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.6% 99.9%  
39 0.7% 99.3%  
40 0.5% 98.6%  
41 5% 98%  
42 16% 93%  
43 12% 77%  
44 7% 65% Median
45 25% 58%  
46 11% 33%  
47 7% 22%  
48 8% 15%  
49 5% 7%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.8% 1.1% Majority
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.5% 99.9%  
38 2% 99.4%  
39 7% 98%  
40 10% 91%  
41 7% 81%  
42 18% 74%  
43 8% 56% Median
44 27% 48% Last Result
45 9% 21%  
46 2% 12%  
47 4% 10%  
48 6% 6%  
49 0.4% 0.5%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 2% 99.8%  
36 2% 98%  
37 16% 96%  
38 5% 80%  
39 23% 75% Median
40 18% 52%  
41 13% 34%  
42 9% 22%  
43 7% 12%  
44 2% 5%  
45 2% 3% Last Result
46 0.5% 0.8%  
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.5% 99.9%  
32 0.5% 99.3%  
33 1.2% 98.8%  
34 4% 98%  
35 4% 94%  
36 15% 90%  
37 13% 75%  
38 23% 62% Median
39 12% 40%  
40 17% 28%  
41 6% 10%  
42 3% 4%  
43 0.9% 1.4%  
44 0.4% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0.5% 99.9%  
32 0.6% 99.4%  
33 2% 98.7%  
34 6% 97%  
35 4% 90%  
36 10% 86%  
37 22% 76%  
38 12% 54% Median
39 23% 42%  
40 7% 19%  
41 7% 11%  
42 4% 4%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.6% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.2%  
30 4% 97%  
31 18% 93%  
32 11% 75%  
33 15% 63% Median
34 27% 48%  
35 13% 21%  
36 5% 8% Last Result
37 2% 3%  
38 0.8% 1.1%  
39 0.2% 0.3%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 2% 99.9%  
24 3% 98%  
25 17% 95%  
26 21% 78% Median
27 26% 57%  
28 11% 31%  
29 11% 20% Last Result
30 5% 9%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.9% 2%  
33 0.7% 0.7%  
34 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations