Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 10–16 March 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 30.8% 29.0–32.7% 28.5–33.3% 28.0–33.7% 27.2–34.7%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 26.3% 24.6–28.2% 24.1–28.7% 23.7–29.1% 22.8–30.0%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 16.6% 15.2–18.2% 14.8–18.6% 14.4–19.0% 13.8–19.8%
Eesti 200 4.4% 9.4% 8.3–10.7% 8.0–11.1% 7.7–11.4% 7.2–12.0%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.3% 5.4–7.4% 5.2–7.7% 5.0–8.0% 4.6–8.5%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.8% 1.0–3.2%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 34 32–37 31–37 31–38 30–39
Eesti Keskerakond 26 29 27–31 26–32 25–32 24–33
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 17 15–19 15–19 15–20 14–21
Eesti 200 0 9 8–10 7–11 7–11 6–12
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 6 5–8 5–8 5–8 4–9
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 4–7 4–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 1.4% 99.7%  
31 4% 98%  
32 10% 94%  
33 17% 85%  
34 19% 68% Last Result, Median
35 22% 48%  
36 14% 26%  
37 8% 12%  
38 3% 5%  
39 1.1% 1.4%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.5% 99.9%  
25 2% 99.4%  
26 6% 97% Last Result
27 14% 91%  
28 22% 78%  
29 20% 56% Median
30 21% 36%  
31 9% 14%  
32 4% 5%  
33 1.4% 2%  
34 0.3% 0.4%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.3% 100%  
14 2% 99.7%  
15 10% 98%  
16 23% 88%  
17 33% 64% Median
18 16% 31%  
19 10% 14% Last Result
20 3% 4%  
21 0.9% 1.0%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.7% 100%  
7 7% 99.3%  
8 29% 92%  
9 35% 63% Median
10 22% 29%  
11 6% 7%  
12 0.9% 1.0%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0.6% 99.9%  
5 9% 99.3%  
6 44% 90% Median
7 30% 46%  
8 14% 15%  
9 1.4% 1.5%  
10 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0% 97%  
4 8% 97%  
5 37% 89%  
6 40% 52% Median
7 11% 12%  
8 1.4% 1.4%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 80 100% 78–82 77–83 77–85 76–86
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 63 100% 61–65 60–66 59–67 58–69
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 57 99.9% 55–60 54–60 53–61 52–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 51 67% 49–54 48–55 48–56 46–57
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 51 63% 49–54 48–54 47–55 46–56
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 46 0.9% 43–48 43–49 42–50 41–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 46 2% 44–49 43–50 42–50 41–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 46 2% 44–49 43–50 42–50 41–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 41 0% 39–43 38–44 37–45 36–46
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 41 0% 38–43 37–44 37–44 35–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 40 0% 37–42 37–43 36–44 34–45
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 35 0% 33–37 32–38 32–39 31–40
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 23 0% 22–26 21–26 21–27 20–28

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.2% 100%  
76 1.0% 99.8%  
77 4% 98.8%  
78 9% 95%  
79 24% 86% Last Result
80 19% 62% Median
81 26% 43%  
82 10% 17%  
83 3% 6%  
84 1.1% 4%  
85 0.8% 3%  
86 1.4% 2%  
87 0.3% 0.4%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.6% 99.9%  
59 2% 99.2%  
60 5% 97% Last Result
61 11% 92%  
62 19% 82%  
63 16% 62% Median
64 24% 46%  
65 13% 22%  
66 5% 9%  
67 2% 4%  
68 1.5% 2%  
69 0.3% 0.6%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9% Majority
52 0.9% 99.7%  
53 3% 98.7%  
54 5% 96%  
55 14% 91%  
56 25% 77%  
57 19% 52% Median
58 15% 33%  
59 8% 18%  
60 7% 10%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.5% 0.6%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.4% 99.9%  
47 2% 99.5%  
48 5% 98%  
49 10% 93%  
50 16% 83%  
51 24% 67% Median, Majority
52 14% 43%  
53 14% 29% Last Result
54 9% 15%  
55 3% 6%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.3% 0.6%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.9% 99.8%  
47 2% 98.9%  
48 4% 97%  
49 11% 93%  
50 19% 82%  
51 19% 63% Majority
52 18% 44% Median
53 15% 26%  
54 7% 11%  
55 2% 4%  
56 1.3% 2%  
57 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 1.3% 99.8%  
42 2% 98%  
43 7% 96%  
44 14% 89%  
45 18% 75% Last Result
46 24% 57% Median
47 18% 33%  
48 7% 15%  
49 5% 8%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.6% 0.9% Majority
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 0.4% 99.6%  
42 2% 99.1%  
43 4% 97%  
44 8% 92%  
45 15% 84%  
46 23% 69% Median
47 23% 46%  
48 12% 23%  
49 6% 12%  
50 4% 6%  
51 1.3% 2% Majority
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 0.4% 99.6%  
42 2% 99.1%  
43 4% 97%  
44 8% 92%  
45 15% 84%  
46 23% 69% Median
47 23% 46%  
48 12% 23%  
49 6% 12%  
50 4% 6%  
51 1.3% 2% Majority
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 0.9% 99.8%  
37 2% 98.8%  
38 7% 97%  
39 12% 90%  
40 20% 78% Median
41 19% 58%  
42 22% 39%  
43 8% 17%  
44 6% 9% Last Result
45 2% 3%  
46 0.7% 0.9%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.9%  
35 0.4% 99.6%  
36 1.0% 99.2%  
37 5% 98%  
38 6% 94%  
39 17% 87%  
40 14% 71%  
41 17% 57% Median
42 24% 40%  
43 9% 16%  
44 5% 7%  
45 2% 2%  
46 0.5% 0.6%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.5% 99.8%  
35 1.0% 99.4%  
36 3% 98%  
37 7% 95%  
38 12% 88%  
39 20% 77%  
40 19% 56% Median
41 22% 37%  
42 7% 15%  
43 6% 9%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.5% 0.6%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.9%  
31 1.3% 99.6%  
32 5% 98%  
33 10% 93%  
34 16% 83%  
35 19% 67% Median
36 22% 48% Last Result
37 17% 26%  
38 6% 9%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.9% 1.2%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100%  
19 0.3% 99.9%  
20 2% 99.6%  
21 8% 98%  
22 18% 90%  
23 24% 73% Median
24 23% 49%  
25 15% 25%  
26 6% 10%  
27 3% 4%  
28 0.7% 0.9%  
29 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
30 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations