Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS for ERR, 10–16 March 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 26.2% 24.5–28.0% 24.1–28.5% 23.7–29.0% 22.9–29.8%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 22.2% 20.6–23.9% 20.1–24.3% 19.8–24.8% 19.0–25.6%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 20.2% 18.7–21.8% 18.2–22.3% 17.9–22.7% 17.1–23.5%
Eesti 200 4.4% 12.1% 10.9–13.5% 10.6–13.9% 10.3–14.2% 9.7–14.9%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.1% 8.0–10.3% 7.7–10.7% 7.5–11.0% 7.0–11.6%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.1% 5.2–7.1% 5.0–7.4% 4.8–7.7% 4.4–8.2%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.0% 2.5–3.8% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.9% 0.5–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 29 27–31 27–32 26–33 25–34
Eesti Keskerakond 26 25 21–26 21–27 21–27 20–28
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 22 19–24 18–25 18–25 18–26
Eesti 200 0 12 10–14 10–15 10–15 9–15
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 7–10 7–11 7–11 6–12
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 4–6 0–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 2% 99.7%  
26 2% 98%  
27 14% 96%  
28 15% 82%  
29 24% 66% Median
30 21% 42%  
31 12% 22%  
32 6% 10%  
33 2% 4%  
34 1.3% 2% Last Result
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 2% 99.9%  
21 9% 98%  
22 11% 89%  
23 13% 79%  
24 14% 65%  
25 32% 52% Median
26 12% 20% Last Result
27 5% 7%  
28 1.4% 2%  
29 0.3% 0.4%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 5% 99.8%  
19 6% 94% Last Result
20 10% 88%  
21 17% 79%  
22 20% 61% Median
23 20% 41%  
24 16% 22%  
25 5% 6%  
26 1.0% 1.1%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 2% 100%  
10 10% 98%  
11 30% 88%  
12 30% 58% Median
13 13% 28%  
14 10% 15%  
15 5% 6%  
16 0.3% 0.3%  
17 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.8% 100%  
7 11% 99.2%  
8 34% 88%  
9 34% 54% Median
10 14% 20% Last Result
11 5% 6%  
12 0.9% 0.9%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 0% 93%  
2 0% 93%  
3 0% 93%  
4 5% 93%  
5 50% 89% Median
6 30% 39%  
7 8% 9%  
8 1.2% 1.2%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 75 100% 73–78 72–79 72–81 71–81
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 57 99.6% 54–59 53–59 52–60 51–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 54 93% 51–56 50–57 50–57 48–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 51 56% 49–54 47–55 47–56 46–57
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 51 60% 48–53 48–55 47–55 45–56
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 46 1.2% 43–49 42–50 42–50 41–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 43 0% 40–46 40–46 39–47 37–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 43 0% 40–46 40–46 39–47 37–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 38 0% 36–40 35–41 34–42 33–44
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 38 0% 35–40 34–41 33–42 32–43
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 34 0% 32–37 31–38 30–38 28–39
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 33 0% 30–35 29–36 29–36 28–38
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 31 0% 28–33 27–34 27–34 26–35

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.4% 99.9%  
71 1.5% 99.5%  
72 6% 98%  
73 11% 92%  
74 17% 81%  
75 19% 63%  
76 19% 44% Median
77 15% 25%  
78 4% 10%  
79 2% 6% Last Result
80 0.8% 4%  
81 3% 3%  
82 0.2% 0.2%  
83 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 1.2% 99.6% Majority
52 2% 98%  
53 5% 96%  
54 9% 91%  
55 20% 82%  
56 12% 62% Median
57 27% 50%  
58 8% 23%  
59 12% 16%  
60 1.2% 3%  
61 1.4% 2%  
62 0.8% 0.8%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.5% 99.8%  
49 1.1% 99.3%  
50 5% 98%  
51 14% 93% Majority
52 21% 79%  
53 8% 58%  
54 22% 50% Median
55 13% 28%  
56 5% 15%  
57 8% 9%  
58 1.0% 2%  
59 0.6% 0.8%  
60 0% 0.1% Last Result
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.2% 100%  
46 2% 99.8%  
47 4% 98%  
48 4% 94%  
49 12% 90%  
50 22% 78%  
51 12% 56% Median, Majority
52 18% 44%  
53 12% 26% Last Result
54 8% 15%  
55 3% 7%  
56 4% 4%  
57 0.3% 0.5%  
58 0% 0.2%  
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.6% 99.7%  
46 1.0% 99.1%  
47 3% 98%  
48 6% 95%  
49 9% 89%  
50 19% 80%  
51 14% 60% Majority
52 14% 46% Median
53 23% 32%  
54 4% 9%  
55 4% 5%  
56 0.9% 1.3%  
57 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.4% 100%  
41 0.6% 99.5%  
42 4% 99.0%  
43 6% 95%  
44 15% 89%  
45 16% 74% Last Result
46 17% 58%  
47 11% 42% Median
48 21% 31%  
49 5% 10%  
50 4% 5%  
51 0.9% 1.2% Majority
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.4% 99.8%  
38 0.8% 99.4%  
39 3% 98.6%  
40 8% 96%  
41 11% 88%  
42 18% 77%  
43 14% 59% Median
44 22% 45%  
45 13% 23%  
46 7% 10%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.9% 1.1%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.4% 99.8%  
38 0.8% 99.4%  
39 3% 98.6%  
40 8% 96%  
41 11% 88%  
42 18% 77%  
43 14% 59% Median
44 22% 45%  
45 13% 23%  
46 7% 10%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.9% 1.1%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.8% 99.9%  
34 4% 99.1%  
35 4% 95%  
36 13% 91%  
37 22% 78%  
38 18% 56% Median
39 21% 38%  
40 9% 17%  
41 4% 9%  
42 2% 4%  
43 1.3% 2%  
44 0.5% 0.7% Last Result
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.8%  
32 0.5% 99.7%  
33 3% 99.2%  
34 3% 96%  
35 9% 94%  
36 9% 85%  
37 14% 75%  
38 21% 61%  
39 13% 40% Median
40 17% 27%  
41 6% 10%  
42 4% 4%  
43 0.6% 0.7%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.6% 99.7%  
29 0.5% 99.1%  
30 1.1% 98.6%  
31 3% 97%  
32 14% 95%  
33 11% 81%  
34 23% 70% Median
35 19% 46%  
36 15% 28%  
37 7% 12%  
38 4% 5%  
39 1.1% 1.3%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 1.2% 99.9%  
29 4% 98.7%  
30 9% 95%  
31 12% 86%  
32 15% 74%  
33 21% 59%  
34 19% 38% Median
35 9% 18%  
36 7% 9% Last Result
37 1.0% 2%  
38 0.6% 0.7%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 2% 99.8%  
27 7% 98%  
28 8% 90%  
29 10% 82% Last Result
30 15% 72%  
31 20% 57% Median
32 20% 37%  
33 12% 18%  
34 5% 6%  
35 0.8% 1.0%  
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations