Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 12–18 March 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 28.9% 27.2–30.7% 26.7–31.2% 26.3–31.6% 25.5–32.5%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 20.9% 19.4–22.6% 19.0–23.0% 18.6–23.4% 17.9–24.2%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 17.0% 15.6–18.5% 15.2–18.9% 14.9–19.3% 14.3–20.1%
Eesti 200 4.4% 13.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.4–14.7% 11.1–15.1% 10.6–15.8%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 12.0% 10.8–13.3% 10.5–13.7% 10.2–14.0% 9.7–14.7%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 4.0% 3.4–4.9% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.8%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.0% 2.4–3.7% 2.2–3.9% 2.1–4.1% 1.9–4.5%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.3% 0.2–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.0–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 33 31–35 31–36 30–36 29–38
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 24 22–25 21–26 21–26 20–27
Eesti Keskerakond 26 18 17–20 16–20 16–21 15–22
Eesti 200 0 14 12–15 12–16 11–16 11–17
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 12 11–14 11–14 10–15 10–16
Erakond Isamaa 12 0 0 0–4 0–5 0–5
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 2% 99.8%  
30 3% 98%  
31 8% 96%  
32 23% 87%  
33 18% 64% Median
34 24% 47% Last Result
35 14% 23%  
36 6% 9%  
37 2% 2%  
38 0.8% 0.9%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.4% 100% Last Result
20 1.5% 99.5%  
21 7% 98%  
22 20% 91%  
23 21% 71%  
24 32% 51% Median
25 9% 18%  
26 7% 9%  
27 1.4% 2%  
28 0.4% 0.5%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 2% 99.8%  
16 8% 98%  
17 17% 90%  
18 32% 73% Median
19 26% 41%  
20 10% 15%  
21 4% 5%  
22 0.8% 0.9%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.3% 100%  
11 4% 99.7%  
12 10% 96%  
13 28% 86%  
14 37% 58% Median
15 15% 21%  
16 5% 6%  
17 0.8% 0.9%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.5% 100%  
10 4% 99.5% Last Result
11 31% 96%  
12 21% 65% Median
13 31% 43%  
14 9% 12%  
15 2% 3%  
16 0.5% 0.5%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Median
1 0% 5%  
2 0% 5%  
3 0% 5%  
4 3% 5%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 75 100% 73–77 72–77 71–78 69–79
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 57 100% 54–59 54–60 54–61 52–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 57 99.9% 54–59 54–60 53–60 52–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 52 75% 49–54 48–54 47–55 47–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 45 1.3% 44–48 43–49 42–50 42–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 45 1.3% 44–48 43–49 42–50 42–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 45 0.7% 43–48 42–48 42–49 41–51
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 42 0% 39–44 39–45 38–46 37–47
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 42 0% 39–44 39–45 38–45 37–46
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 35 0% 33–38 33–38 32–39 31–40
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 34 0% 31–36 31–36 30–38 29–39
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 30 0% 29–33 28–34 28–34 27–36
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 30 0% 28–33 28–33 27–34 26–35

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.2% 100%  
69 0.5% 99.8%  
70 0.3% 99.3%  
71 2% 99.0%  
72 6% 97%  
73 11% 91%  
74 16% 80%  
75 22% 64% Median
76 29% 42%  
77 8% 13%  
78 4% 5%  
79 0.8% 0.9% Last Result
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100% Majority
52 0.5% 99.9%  
53 2% 99.4%  
54 9% 98%  
55 9% 89%  
56 22% 80%  
57 19% 58% Median
58 24% 40%  
59 8% 16%  
60 5% 8%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.7% 0.9%  
63 0.3% 0.3%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9% Majority
52 0.7% 99.6%  
53 4% 98.9% Last Result
54 9% 95%  
55 10% 86%  
56 22% 76%  
57 18% 54% Median
58 24% 36%  
59 7% 13%  
60 4% 6%  
61 1.4% 2%  
62 0.4% 0.4%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 3% 99.7%  
48 3% 97%  
49 8% 95%  
50 12% 87%  
51 24% 75% Median, Majority
52 25% 51%  
53 14% 26%  
54 8% 12%  
55 3% 5%  
56 1.0% 1.4%  
57 0.3% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.4% 99.9%  
42 4% 99.5%  
43 4% 96%  
44 11% 91%  
45 34% 80% Median
46 16% 46%  
47 13% 30%  
48 10% 17%  
49 5% 7%  
50 1.4% 3%  
51 1.0% 1.3% Majority
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.4% 99.9%  
42 4% 99.5%  
43 4% 96%  
44 11% 91%  
45 34% 80% Median
46 16% 46%  
47 13% 30%  
48 10% 17%  
49 5% 7%  
50 1.4% 3%  
51 1.0% 1.3% Majority
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 1.3% 99.7%  
42 5% 98%  
43 5% 94%  
44 12% 89% Last Result
45 34% 76% Median
46 16% 42%  
47 13% 27%  
48 9% 14%  
49 4% 5%  
50 0.7% 1.4%  
51 0.6% 0.7% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.6% 99.9%  
38 2% 99.3%  
39 7% 97%  
40 11% 90%  
41 19% 79%  
42 25% 60% Median
43 21% 35%  
44 6% 14%  
45 5% 8%  
46 2% 3%  
47 0.4% 0.6%  
48 0.2% 0.2%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 1.0% 99.8%  
38 3% 98.8%  
39 8% 96%  
40 12% 88%  
41 19% 76%  
42 25% 56% Median
43 20% 31%  
44 5% 11%  
45 4% 6% Last Result
46 1.2% 1.4%  
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100% Last Result
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.8% 99.8%  
32 2% 99.0%  
33 8% 97%  
34 13% 89%  
35 27% 76%  
36 16% 49% Median
37 22% 33%  
38 7% 11%  
39 3% 4%  
40 1.2% 1.5%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 1.0% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.0%  
31 7% 97%  
32 22% 89%  
33 17% 68% Median
34 24% 51%  
35 14% 27%  
36 8% 13%  
37 2% 5%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.6% 0.8%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.3% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.6%  
28 7% 98%  
29 21% 91%  
30 21% 70% Median
31 14% 49%  
32 19% 35%  
33 10% 16%  
34 3% 5%  
35 1.0% 2%  
36 0.4% 0.8%  
37 0.4% 0.4%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.5% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.4%  
28 8% 97%  
29 22% 89%  
30 22% 67% Median
31 14% 44%  
32 18% 30%  
33 9% 12%  
34 2% 3%  
35 0.7% 0.8%  
36 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
37 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations