Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 18–23 March 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 29.6% 27.8–31.5% 27.3–32.0% 26.9–32.5% 26.0–33.4%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 26.1% 24.4–27.9% 23.9–28.5% 23.5–28.9% 22.7–29.8%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 16.9% 15.5–18.5% 15.0–19.0% 14.7–19.4% 14.0–20.1%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.6% 7.6–9.8% 7.3–10.2% 7.0–10.5% 6.5–11.1%
Eesti 200 4.4% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.4% 4.6–6.4% 4.4–6.7% 4.2–7.0% 3.8–7.5%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.0–4.9%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 34 31–37 31–38 30–39 30–40
Eesti Keskerakond 26 31 27–32 27–33 26–33 25–34
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 18 16–20 16–21 15–21 15–22
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 7–10 7–10 6–11 6–11
Eesti 200 0 7 6–8 5–9 5–9 5–9
Erakond Isamaa 12 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 3% 99.7%  
31 9% 97%  
32 4% 87%  
33 13% 83%  
34 27% 70% Last Result, Median
35 12% 42%  
36 4% 30%  
37 21% 26%  
38 3% 5%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.2% 0.6%  
41 0.4% 0.4%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.5% 99.9%  
26 2% 99.4% Last Result
27 8% 97%  
28 14% 89%  
29 10% 75%  
30 13% 65%  
31 41% 51% Median
32 4% 11%  
33 6% 7%  
34 0.6% 1.1%  
35 0.4% 0.5%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.5% 100%  
15 3% 99.5%  
16 16% 96%  
17 12% 80%  
18 31% 68% Median
19 24% 37% Last Result
20 8% 13%  
21 4% 5%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 3% 99.9%  
7 10% 97%  
8 35% 87%  
9 37% 52% Median
10 11% 15% Last Result
11 4% 4%  
12 0.3% 0.4%  
13 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 9% 99.8%  
6 30% 91%  
7 32% 61% Median
8 23% 29%  
9 5% 5%  
10 0.2% 0.3%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 34% 100%  
1 0% 66%  
2 0% 66%  
3 0% 66%  
4 17% 66% Median
5 42% 49%  
6 5% 7%  
7 1.2% 1.2%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0.1% 0.2%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 82 100% 79–86 79–86 78–87 77–88
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 65 100% 61–68 60–69 60–69 59–69
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 55 99.6% 53–58 53–59 53–59 51–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 53 69% 49–55 49–56 48–57 48–58
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 51 65% 49–54 48–54 46–55 45–57
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 48 12% 45–51 45–52 44–52 43–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 46 2% 44–49 42–49 42–50 40–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 46 2% 44–49 42–49 42–50 40–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 42 0% 40–46 39–46 39–48 38–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 41 0% 40–45 39–46 37–46 36–47
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 39 0% 36–41 36–42 35–42 34–43
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 38 0% 35–40 33–41 33–42 31–43
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 27 0% 24–29 24–29 24–30 22–31

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.2% 100%  
77 1.2% 99.8%  
78 3% 98.7%  
79 11% 95% Last Result
80 9% 84%  
81 25% 75%  
82 10% 51%  
83 4% 41% Median
84 9% 37%  
85 4% 27%  
86 19% 24%  
87 3% 4%  
88 2% 2%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 1.3% 99.8%  
60 5% 98.6% Last Result
61 16% 94%  
62 15% 78%  
63 2% 64%  
64 9% 61%  
65 17% 53% Median
66 10% 36%  
67 1.2% 25%  
68 19% 24%  
69 5% 5%  
70 0.4% 0.4%  
71 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 0.7% 99.6% Majority
52 0.4% 98.9%  
53 10% 98%  
54 11% 89%  
55 37% 78%  
56 5% 41% Median
57 24% 37%  
58 7% 13%  
59 4% 6%  
60 1.1% 2%  
61 0.8% 1.0%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 2% 99.5%  
49 8% 97%  
50 20% 89%  
51 4% 69% Majority
52 9% 65% Median
53 22% 55% Last Result
54 9% 33%  
55 18% 24%  
56 2% 6%  
57 2% 3%  
58 1.2% 1.4%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.6% 100%  
46 2% 99.4%  
47 0.4% 97%  
48 5% 97%  
49 19% 92%  
50 9% 73%  
51 23% 65% Majority
52 15% 41%  
53 9% 26% Median
54 13% 17%  
55 2% 4%  
56 1.1% 2%  
57 1.1% 1.2% Last Result
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 1.5% 99.6%  
44 1.4% 98%  
45 9% 97% Last Result
46 10% 87%  
47 22% 78%  
48 7% 56%  
49 35% 49% Median
50 1.4% 13%  
51 7% 12% Majority
52 4% 5%  
53 0.5% 1.4%  
54 0.8% 0.9%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.7% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.2%  
42 4% 98%  
43 3% 93%  
44 8% 90%  
45 9% 82%  
46 35% 73%  
47 16% 38% Median
48 9% 22%  
49 9% 13%  
50 2% 5%  
51 1.5% 2% Majority
52 0.8% 0.9%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.7% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.2%  
42 4% 98%  
43 3% 93%  
44 8% 90%  
45 9% 82%  
46 35% 73%  
47 16% 38% Median
48 9% 22%  
49 9% 13%  
50 2% 5%  
51 1.5% 2% Majority
52 0.8% 0.9%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.8%  
38 2% 99.7%  
39 6% 98%  
40 6% 92%  
41 8% 86%  
42 32% 78%  
43 8% 46% Median
44 12% 38% Last Result
45 3% 26%  
46 19% 23%  
47 1.5% 4%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.5% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 1.2% 99.7%  
37 1.4% 98.5%  
38 2% 97%  
39 5% 95%  
40 32% 90%  
41 10% 58%  
42 13% 49%  
43 8% 36%  
44 16% 28% Median
45 6% 12%  
46 6% 6%  
47 0.4% 0.7%  
48 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 1.2% 99.6%  
35 3% 98%  
36 16% 95% Last Result
37 15% 80%  
38 8% 65%  
39 19% 57%  
40 26% 37% Median
41 4% 11%  
42 6% 6%  
43 0.4% 0.8%  
44 0.3% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.7% 100%  
32 0.5% 99.2%  
33 5% 98.7%  
34 1.4% 94%  
35 6% 92%  
36 9% 86%  
37 25% 77%  
38 17% 52% Median
39 20% 35%  
40 7% 15%  
41 4% 8%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.9% 1.2%  
44 0.2% 0.3%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.4% 99.9%  
23 2% 99.5%  
24 17% 98%  
25 11% 81%  
26 7% 70%  
27 37% 63% Median
28 15% 26%  
29 7% 11% Last Result
30 2% 4%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.3% 0.3%  
33 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations