Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 24–30 March 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 30.4% 28.6–32.3% 28.1–32.9% 27.6–33.3% 26.8–34.3%
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 29.7% 27.9–31.6% 27.4–32.1% 26.9–32.6% 26.1–33.5%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 15.9% 14.5–17.5% 14.1–17.9% 13.8–18.3% 13.1–19.1%
Eesti 200 4.4% 7.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.4–9.2% 6.2–9.5% 5.8–10.1%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.3% 5.4–8.5% 5.0–9.1%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 26 35 33–38 32–38 32–39 30–40
Eesti Reformierakond 34 34 32–37 31–38 31–38 29–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 17 15–19 15–19 14–20 14–21
Eesti 200 0 8 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–10
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 6 5–8 5–8 5–8 0–9
Erakond Isamaa 12 0 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100% Last Result
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.9%  
31 2% 99.5%  
32 4% 98%  
33 10% 94%  
34 17% 84%  
35 20% 67% Median
36 16% 47%  
37 18% 31%  
38 8% 13%  
39 4% 5%  
40 1.0% 1.2%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0.5% 99.9%  
30 1.4% 99.4%  
31 4% 98%  
32 8% 94%  
33 17% 86%  
34 24% 69% Last Result, Median
35 17% 46%  
36 16% 29%  
37 8% 13%  
38 3% 5%  
39 2% 2%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.3% 100%  
14 3% 99.6%  
15 12% 97%  
16 28% 85%  
17 25% 57% Median
18 18% 32%  
19 11% 15% Last Result
20 2% 4%  
21 1.2% 1.4%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 2% 100%  
6 15% 98%  
7 33% 83%  
8 38% 50% Median
9 10% 12%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100%  
1 0% 99.4%  
2 0% 99.4%  
3 0% 99.4%  
4 0.6% 99.4%  
5 17% 98.7%  
6 39% 82% Median
7 31% 42%  
8 10% 12%  
9 1.3% 1.4%  
10 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Median
1 0% 10%  
2 0% 10%  
3 0% 10%  
4 4% 10%  
5 6% 7%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 87 100% 84–89 83–89 82–90 81–91
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 60 70 100% 67–72 66–73 66–73 64–75
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 53 89% 50–55 49–56 49–57 48–58
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 52 83% 50–55 49–56 48–57 47–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 52 71% 49–55 49–55 48–56 47–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 51 63% 49–54 48–55 47–56 46–57
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 42 0% 39–45 39–46 38–46 37–48
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 42 0% 39–44 38–45 38–45 36–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 41 0% 39–44 38–45 37–45 36–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 41 0% 39–44 38–45 37–45 36–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 41 0% 38–43 38–44 37–45 35–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 35 0% 32–38 32–38 31–39 30–41
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 23 0% 21–25 20–26 20–27 19–28

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100% Last Result
80 0.2% 100%  
81 0.6% 99.8%  
82 2% 99.2%  
83 4% 97%  
84 4% 93%  
85 9% 89%  
86 21% 80% Median
87 22% 59%  
88 23% 37%  
89 11% 14%  
90 2% 3%  
91 0.3% 0.7%  
92 0.1% 0.5%  
93 0.2% 0.4%  
94 0.2% 0.2%  
95 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100% Last Result
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.4% 99.7%  
65 2% 99.4%  
66 4% 98%  
67 6% 94%  
68 17% 87%  
69 7% 71% Median
70 25% 64%  
71 21% 39%  
72 9% 18%  
73 7% 9%  
74 1.3% 2%  
75 0.4% 0.6%  
76 0.2% 0.3%  
77 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 1.1% 99.7%  
49 4% 98.6%  
50 5% 95%  
51 18% 89% Majority
52 19% 71% Median
53 16% 52%  
54 16% 37%  
55 12% 20%  
56 4% 9%  
57 3% 5% Last Result
58 1.1% 2%  
59 0.2% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100% Last Result
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 0.6% 99.7%  
48 2% 99.0%  
49 5% 97%  
50 9% 92%  
51 20% 83% Majority
52 19% 63% Median
53 15% 44%  
54 15% 29%  
55 8% 14%  
56 3% 6%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.3% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 1.1% 99.7%  
48 3% 98.6%  
49 7% 96%  
50 17% 88%  
51 18% 71% Median, Majority
52 16% 53%  
53 16% 36%  
54 8% 21%  
55 8% 12%  
56 3% 4%  
57 0.7% 1.1%  
58 0.3% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.7% 99.7%  
47 2% 99.1%  
48 4% 97%  
49 9% 92%  
50 20% 83%  
51 18% 63% Median, Majority
52 16% 45%  
53 14% 29% Last Result
54 6% 15%  
55 6% 8%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.4% 0.6%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.8% 99.7%  
38 2% 98.9%  
39 7% 97%  
40 9% 90%  
41 18% 80% Median
42 17% 62%  
43 19% 45%  
44 13% 26%  
45 7% 13%  
46 4% 6%  
47 1.2% 2%  
48 0.7% 0.8% Last Result
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.4% 99.8% Last Result
37 1.3% 99.5%  
38 3% 98%  
39 9% 95%  
40 12% 85%  
41 19% 74% Median
42 17% 54%  
43 19% 38%  
44 11% 19%  
45 5% 8%  
46 2% 2%  
47 0.3% 0.5%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.6% 99.7%  
37 2% 99.1%  
38 6% 97%  
39 13% 91%  
40 12% 78% Median
41 23% 66%  
42 15% 43%  
43 12% 27%  
44 10% 15%  
45 3% 5%  
46 1.1% 2%  
47 0.6% 0.9%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.6% 99.7%  
37 2% 99.1%  
38 6% 97%  
39 13% 91%  
40 12% 78% Median
41 23% 66%  
42 15% 43%  
43 12% 27%  
44 10% 15%  
45 3% 5%  
46 1.1% 2%  
47 0.6% 0.9%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.8%  
36 1.4% 99.4%  
37 2% 98%  
38 8% 96%  
39 17% 88%  
40 14% 71% Median
41 23% 58%  
42 15% 35%  
43 11% 20%  
44 6% 9% Last Result
45 2% 3%  
46 0.7% 0.9%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.3% 100%  
30 0.6% 99.7%  
31 3% 99.1%  
32 6% 96%  
33 13% 90%  
34 23% 76% Median
35 16% 53%  
36 17% 37%  
37 9% 20%  
38 7% 12%  
39 3% 4%  
40 1.0% 2%  
41 0.5% 0.7%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0% 100%  
17 0.2% 99.9%  
18 0.2% 99.8%  
19 0.5% 99.6%  
20 5% 99.1%  
21 8% 95%  
22 19% 87%  
23 28% 68% Median
24 15% 40%  
25 18% 25%  
26 4% 7%  
27 3% 3%  
28 0.4% 0.6%  
29 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
30 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations