Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 24–30 March 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Keskerakond |
23.1% |
30.4% |
28.6–32.3% |
28.1–32.9% |
27.6–33.3% |
26.8–34.3% |
Eesti Reformierakond |
28.9% |
29.7% |
27.9–31.6% |
27.4–32.1% |
26.9–32.6% |
26.1–33.5% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond |
17.8% |
15.9% |
14.5–17.5% |
14.1–17.9% |
13.8–18.3% |
13.1–19.1% |
Eesti 200 |
4.4% |
7.7% |
6.7–8.9% |
6.4–9.2% |
6.2–9.5% |
5.8–10.1% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond |
9.8% |
6.8% |
5.9–7.9% |
5.6–8.3% |
5.4–8.5% |
5.0–9.1% |
Erakond Isamaa |
11.4% |
4.1% |
3.4–5.0% |
3.2–5.3% |
3.0–5.5% |
2.7–6.0% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised |
1.8% |
2.2% |
1.7–2.9% |
1.6–3.1% |
1.4–3.3% |
1.2–3.7% |
Eesti Vabaerakond |
1.2% |
0.5% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.3–1.1% |
0.2–1.2% |
0.2–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
Eesti Keskerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0% |
100% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
30 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
31 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
32 |
4% |
98% |
|
33 |
10% |
94% |
|
34 |
17% |
84% |
|
35 |
20% |
67% |
Median |
36 |
16% |
47% |
|
37 |
18% |
31% |
|
38 |
8% |
13% |
|
39 |
4% |
5% |
|
40 |
1.0% |
1.2% |
|
41 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
42 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
|
29 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
30 |
1.4% |
99.4% |
|
31 |
4% |
98% |
|
32 |
8% |
94% |
|
33 |
17% |
86% |
|
34 |
24% |
69% |
Last Result, Median |
35 |
17% |
46% |
|
36 |
16% |
29% |
|
37 |
8% |
13% |
|
38 |
3% |
5% |
|
39 |
2% |
2% |
|
40 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
41 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
14 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
15 |
12% |
97% |
|
16 |
28% |
85% |
|
17 |
25% |
57% |
Median |
18 |
18% |
32% |
|
19 |
11% |
15% |
Last Result |
20 |
2% |
4% |
|
21 |
1.2% |
1.4% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
2% |
100% |
|
6 |
15% |
98% |
|
7 |
33% |
83% |
|
8 |
38% |
50% |
Median |
9 |
10% |
12% |
|
10 |
2% |
2% |
|
11 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
2 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
3 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
4 |
0.6% |
99.4% |
|
5 |
17% |
98.7% |
|
6 |
39% |
82% |
Median |
7 |
31% |
42% |
|
8 |
10% |
12% |
|
9 |
1.3% |
1.4% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
90% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
10% |
|
2 |
0% |
10% |
|
3 |
0% |
10% |
|
4 |
4% |
10% |
|
5 |
6% |
7% |
|
6 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Eesti Vabaerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond |
79 |
87 |
100% |
84–89 |
83–89 |
82–90 |
81–91 |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond |
60 |
70 |
100% |
67–72 |
66–73 |
66–73 |
64–75 |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa |
57 |
53 |
89% |
50–55 |
49–56 |
49–57 |
48–58 |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond |
45 |
52 |
83% |
50–55 |
49–56 |
48–57 |
47–57 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa |
65 |
52 |
71% |
49–55 |
49–55 |
48–56 |
47–57 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond |
53 |
51 |
63% |
49–54 |
48–55 |
47–56 |
46–57 |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa |
48 |
42 |
0% |
39–45 |
39–46 |
38–46 |
37–48 |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond |
36 |
42 |
0% |
39–44 |
38–45 |
38–45 |
36–47 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond |
56 |
41 |
0% |
39–44 |
38–45 |
37–45 |
36–47 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa |
56 |
41 |
0% |
39–44 |
38–45 |
37–45 |
36–47 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond |
44 |
41 |
0% |
38–43 |
38–44 |
37–45 |
35–46 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa |
46 |
35 |
0% |
32–38 |
32–38 |
31–39 |
30–41 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond |
29 |
23 |
0% |
21–25 |
20–26 |
20–27 |
19–28 |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
79 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
80 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
81 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
82 |
2% |
99.2% |
|
83 |
4% |
97% |
|
84 |
4% |
93% |
|
85 |
9% |
89% |
|
86 |
21% |
80% |
Median |
87 |
22% |
59% |
|
88 |
23% |
37% |
|
89 |
11% |
14% |
|
90 |
2% |
3% |
|
91 |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
92 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
93 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
94 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
95 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
60 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
61 |
0% |
100% |
|
62 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
63 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
64 |
0.4% |
99.7% |
|
65 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
66 |
4% |
98% |
|
67 |
6% |
94% |
|
68 |
17% |
87% |
|
69 |
7% |
71% |
Median |
70 |
25% |
64% |
|
71 |
21% |
39% |
|
72 |
9% |
18% |
|
73 |
7% |
9% |
|
74 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
75 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
76 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
77 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
46 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
47 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
48 |
1.1% |
99.7% |
|
49 |
4% |
98.6% |
|
50 |
5% |
95% |
|
51 |
18% |
89% |
Majority |
52 |
19% |
71% |
Median |
53 |
16% |
52% |
|
54 |
16% |
37% |
|
55 |
12% |
20% |
|
56 |
4% |
9% |
|
57 |
3% |
5% |
Last Result |
58 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
59 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
60 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
45 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
46 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
47 |
0.6% |
99.7% |
|
48 |
2% |
99.0% |
|
49 |
5% |
97% |
|
50 |
9% |
92% |
|
51 |
20% |
83% |
Majority |
52 |
19% |
63% |
Median |
53 |
15% |
44% |
|
54 |
15% |
29% |
|
55 |
8% |
14% |
|
56 |
3% |
6% |
|
57 |
2% |
3% |
|
58 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
59 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
60 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
45 |
0% |
100% |
|
46 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
47 |
1.1% |
99.7% |
|
48 |
3% |
98.6% |
|
49 |
7% |
96% |
|
50 |
17% |
88% |
|
51 |
18% |
71% |
Median, Majority |
52 |
16% |
53% |
|
53 |
16% |
36% |
|
54 |
8% |
21% |
|
55 |
8% |
12% |
|
56 |
3% |
4% |
|
57 |
0.7% |
1.1% |
|
58 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
59 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
44 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
45 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
46 |
0.7% |
99.7% |
|
47 |
2% |
99.1% |
|
48 |
4% |
97% |
|
49 |
9% |
92% |
|
50 |
20% |
83% |
|
51 |
18% |
63% |
Median, Majority |
52 |
16% |
45% |
|
53 |
14% |
29% |
Last Result |
54 |
6% |
15% |
|
55 |
6% |
8% |
|
56 |
2% |
3% |
|
57 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
58 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
35 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
36 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
37 |
0.8% |
99.7% |
|
38 |
2% |
98.9% |
|
39 |
7% |
97% |
|
40 |
9% |
90% |
|
41 |
18% |
80% |
Median |
42 |
17% |
62% |
|
43 |
19% |
45% |
|
44 |
13% |
26% |
|
45 |
7% |
13% |
|
46 |
4% |
6% |
|
47 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
48 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
Last Result |
49 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
36 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
37 |
1.3% |
99.5% |
|
38 |
3% |
98% |
|
39 |
9% |
95% |
|
40 |
12% |
85% |
|
41 |
19% |
74% |
Median |
42 |
17% |
54% |
|
43 |
19% |
38% |
|
44 |
11% |
19% |
|
45 |
5% |
8% |
|
46 |
2% |
2% |
|
47 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
48 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
35 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
36 |
0.6% |
99.7% |
|
37 |
2% |
99.1% |
|
38 |
6% |
97% |
|
39 |
13% |
91% |
|
40 |
12% |
78% |
Median |
41 |
23% |
66% |
|
42 |
15% |
43% |
|
43 |
12% |
27% |
|
44 |
10% |
15% |
|
45 |
3% |
5% |
|
46 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
47 |
0.6% |
0.9% |
|
48 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
49 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
35 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
36 |
0.6% |
99.7% |
|
37 |
2% |
99.1% |
|
38 |
6% |
97% |
|
39 |
13% |
91% |
|
40 |
12% |
78% |
Median |
41 |
23% |
66% |
|
42 |
15% |
43% |
|
43 |
12% |
27% |
|
44 |
10% |
15% |
|
45 |
3% |
5% |
|
46 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
47 |
0.6% |
0.9% |
|
48 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
49 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
35 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
36 |
1.4% |
99.4% |
|
37 |
2% |
98% |
|
38 |
8% |
96% |
|
39 |
17% |
88% |
|
40 |
14% |
71% |
Median |
41 |
23% |
58% |
|
42 |
15% |
35% |
|
43 |
11% |
20% |
|
44 |
6% |
9% |
Last Result |
45 |
2% |
3% |
|
46 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
47 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
48 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
29 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
30 |
0.6% |
99.7% |
|
31 |
3% |
99.1% |
|
32 |
6% |
96% |
|
33 |
13% |
90% |
|
34 |
23% |
76% |
Median |
35 |
16% |
53% |
|
36 |
17% |
37% |
|
37 |
9% |
20% |
|
38 |
7% |
12% |
|
39 |
3% |
4% |
|
40 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
41 |
0.5% |
0.7% |
|
42 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
43 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
19 |
0.5% |
99.6% |
|
20 |
5% |
99.1% |
|
21 |
8% |
95% |
|
22 |
19% |
87% |
|
23 |
28% |
68% |
Median |
24 |
15% |
40% |
|
25 |
18% |
25% |
|
26 |
4% |
7% |
|
27 |
3% |
3% |
|
28 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
29 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 24–30 March 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 524,288
- Error estimate: 1.27%