Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 31 March–6 April 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Reformierakond | 28.9% | 33.5% | 31.6–35.5% | 31.1–36.0% | 30.6–36.5% | 29.8–37.4% |
| Eesti Keskerakond | 23.1% | 25.7% | 24.0–27.5% | 23.5–28.1% | 23.1–28.5% | 22.3–29.4% |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 17.8% | 14.1% | 12.8–15.6% | 12.4–16.0% | 12.1–16.4% | 11.5–17.1% |
| Eesti 200 | 4.4% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.6% | 6.5–9.9% | 6.0–10.5% |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 9.8% | 7.6% | 6.6–8.8% | 6.3–9.1% | 6.1–9.4% | 5.7–10.0% |
| Erakond Isamaa | 11.4% | 5.1% | 4.3–6.1% | 4.1–6.4% | 3.9–6.6% | 3.6–7.2% |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.2–3.6% |
| Eesti Vabaerakond | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Reformierakond | 34 | 39 | 36–42 | 35–43 | 35–44 | 34–45 |
| Eesti Keskerakond | 26 | 29 | 27–32 | 26–33 | 26–33 | 24–34 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 19 | 15 | 13–17 | 12–17 | 12–18 | 12–19 |
| Eesti 200 | 0 | 8 | 7–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 5–11 |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 10 | 7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 |
| Erakond Isamaa | 12 | 4 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eesti Vabaerakond | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Eesti Reformierakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 1.3% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 35 | 6% | 98% | |
| 36 | 5% | 92% | |
| 37 | 20% | 88% | |
| 38 | 16% | 68% | |
| 39 | 12% | 52% | Median |
| 40 | 16% | 40% | |
| 41 | 9% | 24% | |
| 42 | 6% | 15% | |
| 43 | 6% | 9% | |
| 44 | 3% | 3% | |
| 45 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 1.4% | 99.2% | |
| 26 | 7% | 98% | Last Result |
| 27 | 9% | 91% | |
| 28 | 13% | 82% | |
| 29 | 20% | 68% | Median |
| 30 | 23% | 48% | |
| 31 | 13% | 25% | |
| 32 | 5% | 12% | |
| 33 | 5% | 6% | |
| 34 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 12 | 5% | 99.5% | |
| 13 | 7% | 95% | |
| 14 | 27% | 88% | |
| 15 | 29% | 61% | Median |
| 16 | 20% | 32% | |
| 17 | 10% | 12% | |
| 18 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 19 | 1.2% | 1.3% | Last Result |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti 200
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 6 | 8% | 99.1% | |
| 7 | 36% | 91% | |
| 8 | 32% | 55% | Median |
| 9 | 16% | 23% | |
| 10 | 6% | 7% | |
| 11 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 21% | 96% | |
| 7 | 43% | 76% | Median |
| 8 | 18% | 33% | |
| 9 | 14% | 15% | |
| 10 | 1.1% | 1.3% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Erakond Isamaa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 39% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 61% | |
| 2 | 0% | 61% | |
| 3 | 0% | 61% | |
| 4 | 23% | 61% | Median |
| 5 | 31% | 38% | |
| 6 | 6% | 7% | |
| 7 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Eesti Vabaerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 79 | 83 | 100% | 80–87 | 79–87 | 79–88 | 78–88 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond | 60 | 68 | 100% | 65–72 | 65–73 | 64–73 | 62–75 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa | 65 | 56 | 99.6% | 54–59 | 53–60 | 52–61 | 51–62 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 53 | 53 | 92% | 51–58 | 49–59 | 49–59 | 48–60 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond | 56 | 49 | 24% | 47–52 | 46–53 | 45–53 | 43–55 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa | 56 | 49 | 24% | 47–52 | 46–53 | 45–53 | 43–55 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa | 57 | 47 | 7% | 44–50 | 43–51 | 42–52 | 41–53 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 44 | 46 | 7% | 43–49 | 43–51 | 42–51 | 41–53 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 45 | 45 | 0.3% | 41–47 | 40–47 | 40–49 | 38–50 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa | 46 | 42 | 0% | 39–45 | 39–46 | 38–46 | 36–48 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa | 48 | 40 | 0% | 35–42 | 35–44 | 35–45 | 33–45 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 36 | 37 | 0% | 34–39 | 33–40 | 32–41 | 31–42 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 29 | 22 | 0% | 20–24 | 19–25 | 19–25 | 18–27 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 78 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 79 | 7% | 98.7% | Last Result |
| 80 | 6% | 91% | |
| 81 | 10% | 86% | |
| 82 | 22% | 75% | |
| 83 | 16% | 53% | Median |
| 84 | 7% | 38% | |
| 85 | 7% | 31% | |
| 86 | 13% | 24% | |
| 87 | 6% | 11% | |
| 88 | 5% | 5% | |
| 89 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 1.4% | 99.5% | |
| 64 | 3% | 98% | |
| 65 | 10% | 95% | |
| 66 | 13% | 85% | |
| 67 | 17% | 72% | |
| 68 | 9% | 56% | Median |
| 69 | 15% | 47% | |
| 70 | 15% | 32% | |
| 71 | 5% | 17% | |
| 72 | 6% | 11% | |
| 73 | 4% | 5% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 75 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 51 | 1.1% | 99.6% | Majority |
| 52 | 1.2% | 98.5% | |
| 53 | 4% | 97% | |
| 54 | 6% | 93% | |
| 55 | 13% | 87% | |
| 56 | 26% | 74% | |
| 57 | 11% | 49% | |
| 58 | 17% | 37% | Median |
| 59 | 12% | 21% | |
| 60 | 5% | 9% | |
| 61 | 2% | 4% | |
| 62 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 1.4% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 4% | 98.5% | |
| 50 | 2% | 94% | |
| 51 | 8% | 92% | Majority |
| 52 | 20% | 84% | |
| 53 | 14% | 64% | Last Result |
| 54 | 10% | 50% | Median |
| 55 | 14% | 39% | |
| 56 | 8% | 25% | |
| 57 | 7% | 18% | |
| 58 | 4% | 10% | |
| 59 | 5% | 6% | |
| 60 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 44 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 45 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 46 | 5% | 97% | |
| 47 | 11% | 91% | |
| 48 | 25% | 80% | |
| 49 | 24% | 55% | |
| 50 | 8% | 32% | Median |
| 51 | 10% | 24% | Majority |
| 52 | 8% | 14% | |
| 53 | 4% | 6% | |
| 54 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 44 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 45 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 46 | 5% | 97% | |
| 47 | 11% | 91% | |
| 48 | 25% | 80% | |
| 49 | 24% | 55% | |
| 50 | 8% | 32% | Median |
| 51 | 10% | 24% | Majority |
| 52 | 8% | 14% | |
| 53 | 4% | 6% | |
| 54 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 42 | 1.4% | 98.8% | |
| 43 | 6% | 97% | |
| 44 | 9% | 91% | |
| 45 | 12% | 82% | |
| 46 | 11% | 70% | |
| 47 | 13% | 59% | |
| 48 | 5% | 45% | Median |
| 49 | 24% | 40% | |
| 50 | 9% | 17% | |
| 51 | 5% | 7% | Majority |
| 52 | 2% | 3% | |
| 53 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 1.4% | 99.7% | |
| 42 | 3% | 98% | |
| 43 | 12% | 96% | |
| 44 | 14% | 84% | Last Result |
| 45 | 14% | 69% | |
| 46 | 13% | 56% | Median |
| 47 | 15% | 43% | |
| 48 | 9% | 28% | |
| 49 | 9% | 19% | |
| 50 | 2% | 10% | |
| 51 | 6% | 7% | Majority |
| 52 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 53 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 39 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 40 | 4% | 98% | |
| 41 | 5% | 94% | |
| 42 | 10% | 89% | |
| 43 | 11% | 79% | |
| 44 | 15% | 68% | Median |
| 45 | 31% | 53% | Last Result |
| 46 | 11% | 22% | |
| 47 | 6% | 11% | |
| 48 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 49 | 3% | 3% | |
| 50 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 51 | 0.3% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 36 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 37 | 1.2% | 98.9% | |
| 38 | 2% | 98% | |
| 39 | 7% | 95% | |
| 40 | 15% | 88% | |
| 41 | 18% | 73% | |
| 42 | 26% | 56% | |
| 43 | 11% | 30% | Median |
| 44 | 7% | 19% | |
| 45 | 5% | 12% | |
| 46 | 4% | 7% | Last Result |
| 47 | 2% | 2% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 34 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 35 | 10% | 98% | |
| 36 | 5% | 87% | |
| 37 | 9% | 82% | |
| 38 | 7% | 73% | |
| 39 | 12% | 66% | |
| 40 | 17% | 55% | Median |
| 41 | 13% | 37% | |
| 42 | 14% | 24% | |
| 43 | 3% | 9% | |
| 44 | 4% | 6% | |
| 45 | 2% | 3% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 1.5% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 3% | 98% | |
| 33 | 3% | 95% | |
| 34 | 6% | 92% | |
| 35 | 27% | 86% | |
| 36 | 8% | 60% | Last Result, Median |
| 37 | 17% | 52% | |
| 38 | 14% | 34% | |
| 39 | 11% | 20% | |
| 40 | 5% | 9% | |
| 41 | 4% | 4% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 4% | 98.8% | |
| 20 | 8% | 95% | |
| 21 | 22% | 87% | |
| 22 | 26% | 64% | Median |
| 23 | 16% | 38% | |
| 24 | 16% | 22% | |
| 25 | 5% | 7% | |
| 26 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 31 March–6 April 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.43%