Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS for ERR, 6–7 April 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 27.0% 25.3–28.9% 24.8–29.4% 24.3–29.8% 23.5–30.7%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 24.0% 22.3–25.8% 21.9–26.3% 21.4–26.7% 20.7–27.6%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 17.0% 15.5–18.6% 15.2–19.1% 14.8–19.5% 14.1–20.3%
Eesti 200 4.4% 11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.8% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.8%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 29 27–30 27–31 27–31 26–33
Eesti Keskerakond 26 27 25–30 24–30 23–31 23–32
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 18 16–21 16–21 16–22 15–23
Eesti 200 0 11 10–12 9–13 9–13 8–14
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 8–9 7–10 7–10 7–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 7 5–8 5–9 5–9 4–9
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.1% 99.9%  
26 2% 99.8%  
27 18% 98%  
28 15% 80%  
29 20% 64% Median
30 38% 44%  
31 4% 6%  
32 2% 2%  
33 0.2% 0.5%  
34 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
35 0.2% 0.3%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.4% 100%  
23 2% 99.6%  
24 3% 97%  
25 5% 95%  
26 19% 90% Last Result
27 25% 71% Median
28 12% 45%  
29 17% 33%  
30 13% 16%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.4% 0.6%  
33 0.2% 0.3%  
34 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.8% 99.8%  
16 13% 99.0%  
17 15% 86%  
18 29% 71% Median
19 22% 42% Last Result
20 8% 20%  
21 9% 12%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.9% 1.0%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 2% 100%  
9 7% 98%  
10 34% 91%  
11 27% 56% Median
12 20% 29%  
13 7% 9%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.3% 0.3%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 0.4% 99.9%  
7 8% 99.5%  
8 36% 91%  
9 46% 55% Median
10 9% 10% Last Result
11 1.0% 1.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 0.4% 99.7%  
5 10% 99.3%  
6 31% 89%  
7 34% 58% Median
8 19% 24%  
9 5% 5%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 75 100% 73–77 72–77 72–78 71–79
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 56 100% 54–59 54–59 52–60 51–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 54 98% 52–56 51–57 51–57 50–59
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 52 87% 50–55 49–56 48–56 47–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 47 3% 45–49 44–50 44–51 43–52
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 46 0.5% 44–48 43–49 42–49 41–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 44 0.1% 42–47 41–47 40–48 39–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 44 0.1% 42–47 41–47 40–48 39–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 43 0% 41–45 40–46 39–46 38–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 38 0% 35–39 35–40 34–41 33–43
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 36 0% 34–38 33–39 32–39 32–40
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 36 0% 34–38 33–38 33–38 32–40
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 27 0% 25–29 25–30 24–30 23–31

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 1.5% 99.7%  
72 5% 98%  
73 11% 94%  
74 21% 83% Median
75 31% 61%  
76 17% 30%  
77 11% 14%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
80 0.1% 0.3%  
81 0.2% 0.2%  
82 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.7% 100% Majority
52 2% 99.3%  
53 2% 97%  
54 7% 95%  
55 22% 88%  
56 16% 66% Median
57 23% 50%  
58 6% 26%  
59 16% 20%  
60 3% 4% Last Result
61 0.6% 0.8%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.4% 99.9%  
50 2% 99.6%  
51 6% 98% Majority
52 17% 91%  
53 13% 74%  
54 15% 62% Median
55 22% 46%  
56 18% 24%  
57 4% 6%  
58 2% 2%  
59 0.4% 0.6%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 1.2% 99.8%  
48 2% 98.5%  
49 3% 97%  
50 7% 94%  
51 11% 87% Majority
52 31% 76% Median
53 11% 46%  
54 16% 35%  
55 11% 19%  
56 7% 8%  
57 0.7% 0.8% Last Result
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 1.4% 99.9%  
44 4% 98%  
45 7% 94%  
46 16% 88%  
47 24% 71% Median
48 26% 47%  
49 14% 21%  
50 5% 7%  
51 1.4% 3% Majority
52 0.8% 1.3%  
53 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.9%  
41 1.2% 99.5%  
42 2% 98%  
43 5% 96%  
44 13% 92%  
45 26% 79% Last Result, Median
46 17% 52%  
47 14% 36%  
48 12% 22%  
49 8% 10%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0.4% 0.5% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.8%  
40 2% 99.4%  
41 6% 97%  
42 10% 91%  
43 15% 81%  
44 17% 65%  
45 22% 49% Median
46 15% 27%  
47 9% 12%  
48 3% 3%  
49 0.7% 1.0%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.8%  
40 2% 99.4%  
41 6% 97%  
42 10% 91%  
43 15% 81%  
44 17% 65%  
45 22% 49% Median
46 15% 27%  
47 9% 12%  
48 3% 3%  
49 0.7% 1.0%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.8% 99.7%  
39 3% 98.9%  
40 3% 96%  
41 11% 93%  
42 24% 82%  
43 24% 58% Median
44 20% 34%  
45 9% 14%  
46 4% 5%  
47 1.0% 1.1%  
48 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.8% 99.8%  
34 4% 99.0%  
35 15% 95%  
36 13% 80%  
37 12% 67%  
38 13% 55% Median
39 35% 42%  
40 3% 7%  
41 3% 4%  
42 1.2% 2%  
43 0.6% 0.6%  
44 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.4% 99.9%  
32 3% 99.6%  
33 3% 96%  
34 7% 93%  
35 28% 86%  
36 23% 59% Last Result, Median
37 7% 36%  
38 21% 29%  
39 7% 8%  
40 0.7% 1.1%  
41 0.4% 0.5%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.8%  
32 2% 99.6%  
33 7% 98%  
34 11% 91%  
35 23% 79%  
36 26% 56% Median
37 18% 30%  
38 11% 12%  
39 1.0% 2%  
40 0.6% 0.8%  
41 0.1% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.5% 99.9%  
24 2% 99.4%  
25 20% 97%  
26 15% 77%  
27 29% 63% Median
28 18% 33%  
29 9% 15% Last Result
30 4% 6%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.2% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations