Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 7–14 April 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 32.9% 31.0–34.8% 30.5–35.4% 30.1–35.9% 29.2–36.8%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 23.5% 21.8–25.3% 21.4–25.8% 21.0–26.2% 20.2–27.1%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 16.3% 14.9–17.9% 14.5–18.3% 14.1–18.7% 13.5–19.5%
Eesti 200 4.4% 8.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.3% 5.4–7.4% 5.2–7.7% 5.0–8.0% 4.6–8.5%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.8% 1.0–3.2%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 38 35–40 35–41 34–41 33–42
Eesti Keskerakond 26 25 23–27 23–28 22–29 22–30
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 17 15–19 15–19 14–20 14–21
Eesti 200 0 8 7–9 6–10 6–10 6–11
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–7 4–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.7% 99.7%  
34 4% 99.0% Last Result
35 8% 95%  
36 12% 87%  
37 16% 75%  
38 19% 59% Median
39 22% 39%  
40 11% 17%  
41 4% 6%  
42 1.3% 2%  
43 0.2% 0.4%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.5% 100%  
22 2% 99.5%  
23 8% 97%  
24 24% 90%  
25 23% 66% Median
26 16% 43% Last Result
27 19% 27%  
28 4% 8%  
29 2% 4%  
30 1.2% 1.4%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.3% 100%  
14 3% 99.7%  
15 8% 97%  
16 19% 88%  
17 30% 70% Median
18 26% 40%  
19 10% 13% Last Result
20 3% 4%  
21 0.6% 0.7%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.3% 100%  
6 6% 99.7%  
7 32% 94%  
8 36% 62% Median
9 18% 26%  
10 7% 8%  
11 0.6% 0.7%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.1% 100%  
6 18% 98.9%  
7 34% 81% Median
8 33% 47%  
9 12% 14%  
10 2% 2% Last Result
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0% 96%  
4 4% 96%  
5 41% 92%  
6 38% 51% Median
7 11% 13%  
8 1.2% 1.3%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 80 100% 78–82 77–83 77–84 76–86
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 63 100% 60–66 60–66 59–67 58–69
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 60 100% 58–63 57–63 56–64 55–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 55 98% 52–57 52–58 51–58 50–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 51 53% 48–53 47–54 46–54 46–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 51 53% 48–53 47–54 46–54 46–55
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 48 10% 45–50 45–51 44–52 42–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 45 0.4% 42–48 42–48 41–49 40–50
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 42 0% 40–45 40–46 39–47 38–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 43 0% 41–46 40–46 39–47 38–48
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 38 0% 36–41 35–42 35–42 33–43
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 33 0% 31–35 30–36 30–37 29–38
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 25 0% 22–27 22–27 21–28 21–29

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.2% 100%  
76 0.7% 99.8%  
77 6% 99.1%  
78 8% 93%  
79 19% 85% Last Result
80 21% 67% Median
81 23% 46%  
82 15% 23%  
83 5% 8%  
84 1.3% 3%  
85 1.1% 2%  
86 0.4% 0.8%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.5% 99.9%  
59 2% 99.5%  
60 9% 97% Last Result
61 6% 88%  
62 18% 82%  
63 21% 64% Median
64 19% 43%  
65 13% 24%  
66 7% 11%  
67 3% 4%  
68 0.6% 1.3%  
69 0.5% 0.7%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.8% 99.8%  
56 2% 99.0%  
57 6% 97%  
58 9% 91%  
59 17% 82%  
60 17% 65%  
61 14% 48% Median
62 23% 34%  
63 7% 11%  
64 3% 4%  
65 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.4% 99.9%  
50 1.1% 99.5%  
51 3% 98% Majority
52 6% 95%  
53 15% 89% Last Result
54 13% 74%  
55 19% 61% Median
56 23% 42%  
57 11% 19%  
58 6% 8%  
59 1.1% 2%  
60 0.8% 1.0%  
61 0.2% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.3% 99.8%  
46 3% 99.5%  
47 4% 97%  
48 8% 93%  
49 10% 85%  
50 22% 75%  
51 20% 53% Median, Majority
52 15% 33%  
53 12% 18%  
54 4% 5%  
55 1.4% 2%  
56 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.3% 99.8%  
46 3% 99.5%  
47 4% 97%  
48 8% 93%  
49 10% 85%  
50 22% 75%  
51 20% 53% Median, Majority
52 15% 33%  
53 12% 18%  
54 4% 5%  
55 1.4% 2%  
56 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.5% 99.8%  
43 1.0% 99.4%  
44 2% 98%  
45 8% 96%  
46 10% 88%  
47 18% 78%  
48 25% 61% Median
49 19% 36%  
50 6% 16%  
51 6% 10% Majority
52 3% 4%  
53 0.6% 0.7%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.8%  
41 3% 99.4%  
42 7% 96%  
43 5% 89%  
44 15% 84% Last Result
45 26% 69% Median
46 19% 43%  
47 12% 23%  
48 7% 12%  
49 3% 4%  
50 0.8% 1.2%  
51 0.3% 0.4% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 1.1% 99.7%  
39 3% 98.6%  
40 10% 96%  
41 14% 85%  
42 27% 72% Median
43 16% 45%  
44 16% 29%  
45 7% 13% Last Result
46 4% 6%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.3% 0.5%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 1.1% 99.7%  
39 3% 98.5%  
40 5% 96%  
41 12% 90%  
42 18% 79%  
43 12% 61%  
44 19% 49% Median
45 18% 30%  
46 10% 12% Last Result
47 2% 3%  
48 0.4% 0.7%  
49 0.3% 0.3%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.7% 99.8%  
34 1.1% 99.1%  
35 4% 98%  
36 11% 94%  
37 19% 83%  
38 23% 64% Median
39 20% 41%  
40 10% 21%  
41 6% 11%  
42 3% 5%  
43 1.3% 2%  
44 0.3% 0.5%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.3% 100%  
29 1.3% 99.7%  
30 6% 98%  
31 21% 93%  
32 21% 72% Median
33 15% 51%  
34 21% 37%  
35 8% 16%  
36 4% 7% Last Result
37 2% 3%  
38 0.7% 0.9%  
39 0.2% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100%  
20 0.4% 99.9%  
21 3% 99.6%  
22 7% 97%  
23 15% 90%  
24 24% 74% Median
25 22% 51%  
26 18% 29%  
27 7% 11%  
28 3% 4%  
29 0.6% 0.8% Last Result
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations