Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 15–20 April 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 34.7% 32.8–36.7% 32.3–37.2% 31.8–37.7% 30.9–38.7%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 22.3% 20.7–24.1% 20.2–24.6% 19.8–25.0% 19.1–25.8%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 18.1% 16.6–19.7% 16.2–20.2% 15.8–20.6% 15.2–21.4%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.2% 7.2–9.4% 6.9–9.8% 6.6–10.1% 6.2–10.7%
Eesti 200 4.4% 6.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.8%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.8% 3.6–7.3%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 41 38–43 38–44 37–44 35–46
Eesti Keskerakond 26 24 22–27 22–28 22–28 21–28
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 19 18–22 17–22 16–22 16–23
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 7–9 6–9 6–10 6–10
Eesti 200 0 6 5–7 5–8 4–8 0–8
Erakond Isamaa 12 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.3% 100% Last Result
35 0.3% 99.7%  
36 1.1% 99.4%  
37 3% 98%  
38 14% 96%  
39 10% 82%  
40 19% 72%  
41 34% 54% Median
42 6% 20%  
43 9% 14%  
44 4% 5%  
45 0.6% 1.4%  
46 0.4% 0.7%  
47 0.3% 0.4%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 2% 99.7%  
22 9% 98%  
23 13% 89%  
24 31% 76% Median
25 8% 45%  
26 22% 38% Last Result
27 9% 15%  
28 6% 6%  
29 0.2% 0.4%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 3% 99.7%  
17 4% 97%  
18 31% 94%  
19 26% 62% Last Result, Median
20 15% 36%  
21 11% 21%  
22 9% 10%  
23 1.0% 1.4%  
24 0.3% 0.4%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100%  
6 7% 99.7%  
7 33% 92%  
8 30% 59% Median
9 26% 30%  
10 3% 4% Last Result
11 0.3% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 98.8%  
2 0% 98.8%  
3 0% 98.8%  
4 2% 98.8%  
5 22% 97%  
6 57% 75% Median
7 11% 18%  
8 7% 7%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 42% 100%  
1 0% 58%  
2 0% 58%  
3 0% 58%  
4 12% 58% Median
5 38% 46%  
6 8% 8%  
7 0.4% 0.5%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 84 100% 82–87 81–88 80–89 79–92
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 65 100% 63–67 62–68 60–69 59–71
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 63 100% 60–65 59–66 58–67 58–68
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 60 100% 57–62 56–64 56–64 54–66
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 51 63% 48–54 48–55 47–56 45–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 51 63% 48–54 48–55 47–56 45–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 48 14% 46–51 45–53 44–53 43–54
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 47 2% 43–50 42–50 42–50 41–52
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 44 0.1% 42–47 40–48 40–49 39–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 43 0% 40–46 39–47 39–48 38–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 35 0% 32–39 31–40 31–40 30–41
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 32 0% 30–35 29–36 29–36 28–37
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 27 0% 25–29 24–31 24–31 23–32

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.6% 99.9% Last Result
80 2% 99.2%  
81 6% 97%  
82 10% 91%  
83 24% 81%  
84 14% 57% Median
85 8% 43%  
86 19% 36%  
87 12% 17%  
88 2% 5%  
89 3% 4%  
90 0.1% 0.9%  
91 0% 0.8%  
92 0.7% 0.8%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 1.3% 99.9%  
60 1.3% 98.6% Last Result
61 2% 97%  
62 3% 95%  
63 9% 93%  
64 22% 84%  
65 23% 61% Median
66 10% 38%  
67 21% 29%  
68 6% 8%  
69 0.8% 3%  
70 0.5% 2%  
71 1.1% 1.3%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.9%  
58 3% 99.7%  
59 3% 97%  
60 12% 95%  
61 21% 82%  
62 11% 62%  
63 12% 51%  
64 26% 39% Median
65 4% 14% Last Result
66 5% 9%  
67 4% 5%  
68 0.3% 0.7%  
69 0.1% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100% Last Result
54 0.4% 99.9%  
55 0.8% 99.4%  
56 7% 98.7%  
57 8% 92%  
58 10% 84%  
59 20% 74%  
60 20% 54% Median
61 17% 33%  
62 9% 16%  
63 2% 7%  
64 3% 5%  
65 1.4% 2%  
66 0.3% 0.6%  
67 0.3% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.4% 99.8%  
46 0.5% 99.4%  
47 4% 98.9%  
48 12% 95%  
49 7% 84%  
50 14% 77%  
51 19% 63% Majority
52 10% 44%  
53 23% 34% Median
54 3% 11%  
55 5% 8%  
56 2% 3% Last Result
57 0.3% 0.5%  
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.4% 99.8%  
46 0.5% 99.4%  
47 4% 98.9%  
48 12% 95%  
49 7% 84%  
50 14% 77%  
51 19% 63% Majority
52 10% 44%  
53 23% 34% Median
54 3% 11%  
55 5% 8%  
56 2% 3% Last Result
57 0.3% 0.5%  
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 1.1% 99.8%  
44 2% 98.8% Last Result
45 6% 97%  
46 12% 91%  
47 10% 79%  
48 33% 69%  
49 6% 36% Median
50 16% 30%  
51 7% 14% Majority
52 2% 7%  
53 4% 5%  
54 0.4% 0.7%  
55 0.2% 0.3%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 0.5% 99.8%  
42 6% 99.3%  
43 3% 93%  
44 4% 90%  
45 14% 86%  
46 11% 72%  
47 27% 60% Median
48 11% 33%  
49 4% 23%  
50 16% 18%  
51 0.8% 2% Majority
52 1.3% 2%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 2% 99.8%  
40 5% 98%  
41 3% 93%  
42 26% 90%  
43 9% 65% Median
44 11% 56%  
45 21% 44% Last Result
46 11% 23%  
47 7% 12%  
48 3% 5%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.6% 0.8%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.8%  
38 0.9% 99.7%  
39 7% 98.8%  
40 4% 92%  
41 17% 88%  
42 8% 71%  
43 17% 63%  
44 9% 46%  
45 12% 37% Median
46 17% 25% Last Result
47 4% 8%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.9% 1.1%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 0.5% 99.7%  
31 6% 99.1%  
32 4% 93%  
33 10% 90%  
34 9% 80%  
35 24% 71%  
36 19% 47% Median
37 12% 28%  
38 6% 16%  
39 4% 10%  
40 5% 6%  
41 0.4% 0.6%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 1.1% 99.8%  
29 7% 98.6%  
30 4% 91%  
31 27% 88%  
32 15% 61% Median
33 10% 46%  
34 12% 36%  
35 19% 24%  
36 3% 6% Last Result
37 2% 2%  
38 0.2% 0.3%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.6% 99.9%  
24 5% 99.3%  
25 14% 94%  
26 16% 80%  
27 27% 63% Median
28 20% 37%  
29 7% 17% Last Result
30 4% 10%  
31 5% 6%  
32 0.5% 0.8%  
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations