Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 20–22 April 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 29.7% 27.9–31.6% 27.4–32.1% 26.9–32.6% 26.1–33.5%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 18.8% 17.3–20.5% 16.9–20.9% 16.5–21.3% 15.8–22.1%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 17.8% 16.3–19.4% 15.9–19.9% 15.6–20.3% 14.9–21.1%
Eesti 200 4.4% 13.8% 12.5–15.3% 12.2–15.8% 11.9–16.1% 11.2–16.9%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.9% 8.8–11.2% 8.5–11.6% 8.2–11.9% 7.7–12.5%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.6%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 35 33–37 32–38 32–39 31–40
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 21 19–23 19–23 18–24 17–25
Eesti Keskerakond 26 20 18–22 18–23 17–23 16–23
Eesti 200 0 15 13–17 13–18 12–18 11–18
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 10 9–12 8–13 8–13 7–13
Erakond Isamaa 12 0 0 0–5 0–5 0–5
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 1.1% 99.6%  
32 5% 98.5%  
33 12% 93%  
34 23% 81% Last Result
35 18% 58% Median
36 14% 40%  
37 20% 26%  
38 3% 6%  
39 1.1% 3%  
40 2% 2%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.8% 99.9%  
18 3% 99.1%  
19 16% 96% Last Result
20 24% 81%  
21 21% 57% Median
22 22% 36%  
23 11% 14%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.9% 1.0%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 2% 99.8%  
17 3% 98%  
18 19% 95%  
19 21% 76%  
20 27% 55% Median
21 14% 28%  
22 8% 14%  
23 6% 6%  
24 0.2% 0.4%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.5% 100%  
12 4% 99.4%  
13 11% 95%  
14 33% 85%  
15 24% 51% Median
16 11% 28%  
17 9% 16%  
18 7% 7%  
19 0.3% 0.4%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.7% 100%  
8 7% 99.3%  
9 29% 93%  
10 30% 63% Last Result, Median
11 23% 33%  
12 5% 10%  
13 5% 5%  
14 0.2% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Median
1 0% 9%  
2 0% 9%  
3 0% 9%  
4 2% 9%  
5 7% 7%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 76 100% 73–78 72–78 72–79 70–80
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 56 99.7% 54–59 53–59 52–60 51–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 56 99.8% 54–59 53–59 52–60 52–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 55 96% 53–58 51–58 50–59 50–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 46 0.5% 43–48 43–49 42–49 41–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 46 0.5% 43–48 43–49 42–49 41–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 45 0.3% 43–47 42–48 42–49 40–50
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 41 0% 39–44 38–44 38–45 36–46
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 40 0% 38–43 38–44 37–44 36–45
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 35 0% 33–38 33–39 32–39 31–40
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 31 0% 29–33 28–34 28–34 27–35
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 30 0% 27–33 27–34 26–34 25–35
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 30 0% 27–32 27–33 26–34 25–34

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.6% 99.8%  
71 1.4% 99.3%  
72 3% 98%  
73 7% 95%  
74 20% 88%  
75 12% 68%  
76 13% 56% Median
77 27% 43%  
78 12% 16%  
79 3% 4% Last Result
80 1.3% 2%  
81 0.3% 0.3%  
82 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 0.8% 99.7% Majority
52 3% 98.8%  
53 4% 95% Last Result
54 16% 91%  
55 17% 75%  
56 23% 59% Median
57 13% 36%  
58 9% 23%  
59 11% 14%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.6% 0.8%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.2% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.8% Majority
52 2% 99.5%  
53 3% 97%  
54 11% 94%  
55 16% 83%  
56 23% 67% Median
57 14% 44%  
58 9% 29%  
59 17% 20%  
60 2% 4%  
61 0.8% 1.1%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.4% 99.9%  
50 3% 99.6%  
51 3% 96% Majority
52 3% 94%  
53 15% 90%  
54 22% 75%  
55 14% 52% Median
56 20% 38%  
57 4% 18%  
58 10% 14%  
59 2% 4%  
60 2% 2% Last Result
61 0.3% 0.3%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.9% 99.7%  
42 3% 98.8%  
43 8% 96%  
44 21% 87%  
45 15% 66% Median
46 16% 51%  
47 22% 35%  
48 5% 13%  
49 7% 8%  
50 1.0% 2%  
51 0.3% 0.5% Majority
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.9% 99.7%  
42 3% 98.8%  
43 8% 96%  
44 21% 87%  
45 15% 66% Median
46 16% 51%  
47 22% 35%  
48 5% 13%  
49 7% 8%  
50 1.0% 2%  
51 0.3% 0.5% Majority
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.8%  
41 1.3% 99.4%  
42 6% 98%  
43 9% 92%  
44 25% 83% Last Result
45 15% 58% Median
46 16% 43%  
47 19% 27%  
48 4% 8%  
49 3% 4%  
50 0.5% 0.8%  
51 0.2% 0.3% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 0.4% 99.8%  
37 2% 99.4%  
38 7% 98%  
39 14% 90%  
40 21% 77%  
41 16% 56% Median
42 16% 40%  
43 10% 24%  
44 9% 14%  
45 4% 5%  
46 0.4% 0.9%  
47 0.2% 0.5%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.5% 99.7%  
37 2% 99.2%  
38 8% 97%  
39 17% 89%  
40 23% 71%  
41 17% 48% Median
42 15% 31%  
43 9% 16%  
44 6% 7%  
45 1.1% 1.3% Last Result
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.6% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.2%  
33 11% 97%  
34 20% 86%  
35 18% 66% Median
36 15% 48%  
37 23% 34%  
38 3% 11%  
39 5% 8%  
40 2% 2%  
41 0.3% 0.5%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.9%  
27 1.3% 99.6%  
28 8% 98%  
29 14% 90% Last Result
30 12% 76%  
31 28% 64% Median
32 19% 36%  
33 9% 17%  
34 6% 8%  
35 1.4% 2%  
36 0.3% 0.4%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 1.2% 99.9%  
26 1.4% 98.7%  
27 11% 97%  
28 10% 87%  
29 17% 76%  
30 13% 59% Median
31 18% 46%  
32 10% 28%  
33 10% 18%  
34 6% 8%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 1.3% 99.9%  
26 2% 98.6%  
27 11% 97%  
28 13% 86%  
29 21% 73%  
30 14% 52% Median
31 19% 38%  
32 10% 20%  
33 7% 10%  
34 2% 3%  
35 0.2% 0.3%  
36 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
37 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations